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Chart of The Week - Soybeans

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Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

This week's focus shifts to the grain markets and looming USDA reports that will be released during today's trading session. The general sense is that Soybean planted acreage could be higher than expectations. The Department of Agriculture is expected to report a significant shift in planted acreage to Soybeans from Corn because of favorable pricing. In the past week, this sentiment seemed to be continually priced into the market. Any indication of less than expected acreage could add fire to an already bullish market and cause May Soybeans to make a move toward $15.

As we turn to the May Soybean chart, we are able to clearly identify a very strong up-trend in the market since the start of the new year. After posting the high print of $14.60 on March 7, the market has consolidated as traders positioned themselves for today’s March 31st USDA report. With so much sentiment geared towards a large expected acreage in Soybeans, an underwhelming number is very possible. In this case, I would look to take a buying position in the Soybean market and look for $15/bushel in the near future. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Soybeans" →

HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry

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There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year.  Below is a simple view of it, with last week's 'Week 2 down' making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with 'Weeks 1 & 2 up'.

hui

NFTRH subscribers had a heads up (from both a sentiment and technical view) that it was time for traders to take profits and holders to prepare for corrective activity in and around the Ukraine hysterics that threw over the final upside (right side of the neckline). Continue reading "HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry" →

Coke Vs. Pepsi: By The Numbers

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History has shown us that America was built on the back of positive rivalries.

Like the long-standing feud between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox... or the U.S. vs. Russia in the Olympics. That's to say nothing of more serious rivalries like the political feud between Democrats and Republicans.

Nothing can drive competitors to perform their best like a well-matched rivalry. This is particularly true in the world of business. Think of Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM), or ATT (NYSE: T) and Sprint (NYSE: S).

All of these (and dozens of others) have resulted in increased innovation, industry growth and -- most critically for investors -- shareholder value. One rivalry in particular stands out to me in terms of longevity, pure competitive zeal and using nearly every trick in the book for the upper hand: the epic cola war between Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and Pepsico (NYSE: PEP).

Both of these companies have made great investments over the years, both offer solid growing dividend yields, and both excel in a particular niche. However, going forward, I think one of these companies has the edge on the other as an investment. Continue reading "Coke Vs. Pepsi: By The Numbers" →

Get Out Of Gold Stocks -- Right Now

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Few investments are driven by psychology and fear as much as gold. Concerns about ruinous inflation, global tensions or economic instability can send investors out of stocks and right into the seemingly safe harbor of gold.

Is the fear trade back on? A double-digit rebound in gold prices since the year began has led some investors to wonder if gold is poised for a great 2014 after a dismal slump in 2013 when gold prices fell more than $400 an ounce. Junior gold miners have fared even better: The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is up roughly 35% in the past three months.

Much of the impetus for an upward move in gold prices was the building tensions in Ukraine, which led to concerns about potential military escalation. It's now apparent that financial sanctions, and not a deepening of a war posture, will characterize the hardening Russia/European Union relationship, and the risk factor is slowly receding. Continue reading "Get Out Of Gold Stocks -- Right Now" →

ZIRP Up Next?

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Everyone expects Janet Yellen to be a rolling over, inflationist stooge just like they did Ben Bernanke.  Bernanke came on board after Alan Greenspan had taken the Fed Funds rate up to around 5% if I remember correctly.  Inflationists and gold bugs thought they had it in the bag when 'Helicopter Ben' assumed control.

Indeed, Bernanke did what he was supposed to do (per the 'Helicopter 'Ben' script) as systemic stresses began to gather in 2007, addressing that pesky Funds rate, culminating in December, 2008's official ZIRP (zero interest rate policy).  Here again is the chart showing the S&P 500's 'Hump #3' attended by this most beneficial monetary policy.

spx.irx

As noted again and again, the much trumpeted 'taper' of QE is not only not a negative for the economy, we have made a strong case that its mechanics are actually a positive, in the near term at least.  But putting ZIRP on the table would be a whole different ball of wax. Continue reading "ZIRP Up Next?" →