In NFTRH we did a lot of work managing the oncoming correction, the valid reasons behind it (these reasons are beyond the scope of this post but don’t listen to the perma-bulls, they were more than valid and readable in advance), the now nearly 5-month-old correction (technically still intact) and more recently the improved risk vs. reward after HUI hit our long-standing ‘best’ target of 280 +/-.
There is another downside target at 260 +/- but it may just be time for the drudgery (AKA consolidation/correction to bleed out the excesses) to end. The answer to confirm that will be left to ongoing work we do on shorter time frames, including daily charts in the weekly report and in-week updates. But for this post, I want to take a perspective look at HUI’s weekly chart.
This is an old chart we used to manage the previous bull market top and long road down to the depths of the bear, in lockdown by the 55 week EMA. With the excitement happening during FOMC week, as the Fed tells us all what we already knew (it’s funny munny for as far as the eye can see, or at least as long as the Continuum permits) it pays to have some bigger picture perspective while positioning.
I think it is a notable, if minor, positive that Huey has so far held the EMA 55 for the first time on the way up as it had held below it during the worst of the bear market on the way down. It never hurts to see things rhyme when using TA. Of more importance, HUI has held the first layer of support on the predictable pullback from all too clear resistance at 375 (a target we had loaded since mid-2019).
Much to my dismay, I’ve never covered these hot indices in my posts. I detected some interesting chart patterns as well as significant price actions and thought if it might be interesting to cover and discuss.
These indices have a long trading history as well as great companies that are tracked by each index. The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) are the two most watched gold indices on the market. The main difference between them is that the HUI Index’s components are only gold producers (17 companies) whereas the XAU Index includes both gold and silver miners (30 names). Below is the table of listings for comparison.
Table 1. Current Composition of Indices
I highlighted the matching companies in green so you can easily see the difference between the indices. It is evident that the HUI index almost entirely sits in the XAU index (15 out of 17 names are in), the latter in its turn covers broader the precious metals market. Let us see in the charts below their dynamics and possible price action. Continue reading "HUI Is Testing Support, XAU Is Yet To Try"→
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the importance of caution and timing in gold investment.
Back in early March, with the HUI screaming along north of 150, I published "Patiently Climbing Aboard the New Golden Bull," in which I opined that we had entered a brand-spanking-new bull market in precious metals and related equities. But I also noted that, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 85 on the daily SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and approaching 80 on the daily NYSE.Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI), the short-term outlook was less than appealing, while the intermediate and long-term outlook was unequivocally bullish for the first time in five long years. Continue reading "The Numbers Add Up to Vindication for a Cautious Gold Bull..."→
The charts tell the story, says precious metals expert Michael Ballanger, adding that the mining and metals market have the forward momentum of Secretariat as he clinched the Triple Crown.
Today's missive is going to be exceedingly "chart-infected," because many times a picture is worth one thousand words, especially in the case of the precious metals markets these days. I put on a 2% hedge prior to the FOMC meetings and the Wednesday press release and have since removed it, taking a small hit versus the mindboggling leap in my GDXJ position and associated advances in the juniors (KAM.V over $2). That's the beauty of a "hedge" versus a "short," and that is precisely what I have been thinking since the COT moved above 200,000 Commercial net shorts a few weeks back, with the gold and silver prices refusing to retrace.
One look at the chart below and you are immediately struck by the "shock and awe" campaign of "no corrections," where the market doesn't allow traders to buy back their favorite mining positions at prices representing only the meagerest of percentage pullbacks. In fact, after nearly 40 years of trading the miners, I have never ever seen a market with such awesome power behind it that is truly such a wonder to behold. The HUI has exploded out of the post-FOMC gate like Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes in 1973. (If you ever want to see an incredible feat by a horse, watch the Youtube clip of the race that clinched the first Triple Crown in 25 years AND was won by an incredible 25 lengths.) Just as that horse left the pack at the halfway point of the race, precious metals are massively outperforming the SP by a vast margin, and are forcing the money managers to be dragged into the market, teeth clenched and fingers clawing the ground. Continue reading "Precious Metals Every Bit as Explosive as Secretariat at the Belmont Stakes"→