Stocks Wavering As Traders Digest Bernanke's Testimony

With Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke overshadowing a batch of upbeat economic data, stocks have wavered over the course of the trading day on Tuesday after initially moving to the upside.

The major averages are currently turning in a mixed performance, with the Nasdaq posting a modest loss. While the Nasdaq is down 6.26 points or 0.2 percent at 3,109.99, the Dow is up 66.62 points or 0.5 percent at 13,850.79 and the S&P 500 is up 1.35 points or 0.1 percent at 1,489.20.

The choppy trading on Wall Street comes as traders digest Bernanke's semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Continue reading "Stocks Wavering As Traders Digest Bernanke's Testimony"

Beware of the March Effect on the Stock Market

"Beware the Ides of March." This famous line uttered by a soothsayer in William Shakespeare's 1601 play, "The Tragedy of Julius Caesar," warned the ruler of his pending demise on the 15th day of March.

Well, we all know what happened to Caesar.

We could apply this same warning to the stock market today.

In the past few years, every stock rally in the beginning of the each year was met by a sharp sell-off in the spring. Certainly, this doesn't portend to mean the entire year ended badly. In fact, those investors with the foresight to buy during the spring swoons generally ended the year with strong gains. Continue reading "Beware of the March Effect on the Stock Market"

To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question

In a previous article, I explained commodity option expiration, exercising, and assignment. I noted a long (purchased) option position (call or put) has the right to exercise the contract. To make an informed decision, I will explain the result of exercising an option contract.

A commodity option contract is a decaying asset that will expire. As an option contract draws near its expiration date, set by the exchanges, both the time value and intrinsic value diminish. Time value is premium in relation to days until expiration. Intrinsic value is the premium in relation to the strike price’s distance from underlying futures contract price. Note that volatility will also play a role in the calculated premium price. The exception to intrinsic value diminishing is an in-the-money contract. At that point, the intrinsic value is a one-to-one ratio of the strike price in relation to the underlying futures contract. For example, a long April 2013 Gold 1600 call will be valued at 50 points (or $5,000) if futures are at 1650.0 on option expiration (March 25, 2013). On the other hand, if futures are at 1600.0 or below on expiration, the option contract is valued at zero. An in-the-money contract, before expiration, will also have time value included in the premium price. However, because there are a number of finite days until expiration, the time value diminishes from day one. Continue reading "To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question"

Gold Chart of The Week

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (February 25th through March 1st)

It was a gut wrenching week for those who stayed long practically anything outside of the US Dollar or the Soybeans last week. Most commodity prices saw their fair share of selling mid-week after it was rumored that a large commodity fund was taking gains in a few markets to defend another large position that they found themselves on the wrong side of. While the name of the fund or the positions are still unknown, I can only guess the fund was taking gains in long positions in the Crude Oil to defend long positions in the Metals. On Wednesday, the Crude Oil Futures took a bath early in the session and selling pressure even carried over into the Thursdays trade before consolidating on Friday. Other commodities were pressured throughout the week as the US Dollar rallied ahead of the release of last months FOMC Minutes. There was nothing particularly shocking about the report as traders expected to hear that FED officials would still be at odds regarding the duration of Quantitative Easing. On top of this release, the market also had to deal with politicians in Washington, who began their media smearing of one another regarding the upcoming Sequester, which must be decided by March 1st. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week"

Poll: 5 days and counting

On March 1st (Friday) Sequestration is set to start and I wonder if our government is doing everything they can to avoid it. What do you think?

Do you think the president and lawmakers are doing enough to avoid the sequester?

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