Category: INO.com Contributors

Japanese Yen Faces Summer Sale

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Yen is vulnerable. Yields on Japanese 2-year sovereign bonds are as low as -0.26%, inflation is persistently low (and seems likely to stay that way for a while) and GDP tilts from contraction to expansion and, in aggregate, barely grows. Currencies such as the US Dollar, the Pound Sterling, and even the Mexican Peso provide plenty of reasons to buy them over the Yen, and yet, the Japanese Yen holds sway. The reason? Global Stocks are underperforming.

Japanese corporations are basically cash machines, hoarding vast amounts of cash that they need to invest. The problem is that Japanese corporations’ default choice has always been buying the highly liquid Japanese sovereign bonds, despite their ridiculously low yields. If market sentiment is upbeat, if stocks perform well, and the global economy seems stable, Japanese corporations are willing to take the risk and store their cash in foreign assets, thus pushing the Yen lower. Continue reading "Japanese Yen Faces Summer Sale" →

OPEC and Crude Futures Price Prospects

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


OPEC will hold its 169th Meeting in Vienna on June 2nd. Its tentative program calls for a press conference to be held at 1600 hours. Don’t expect the fireworks that followed its conference 18 months ago when Saudi oil minister al-Naimi declared a market share battle against North American shale producers. In fact, don’t expect much of anything.

A lot has happened since the last OPEC meeting in December. A strong El Niño resulted in record high temperatures in North America during the first half of the winter, undercutting prices. Poorer members, such as Venezuela and Nigeria, implored the group’s richer Gulf state producers to cut back to stop the hemorrhaging. Saudi Arabia refused to budge.

The sanctions against Iran were lifted in early January. Iran proclaimed it would restore lost production of 500,000 to one million barrels per day. Crude prices tumbled further and by mid-January had dropped to the mid-$20s. The market panic was in full-force. Continue reading "OPEC and Crude Futures Price Prospects" →

McKesson Posts Solid Fiscal Q4 Earnings - Concerns Remain

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

McKesson Corporation (NYSE:MCK) has been faced with a challenging healthcare landscape as political posturing, drug pricing scrutiny, overall sentiment towards pharmaceutical companies due to price gouging allegations and the overall rotation out of healthcare related stocks. This confluence of events has plagued McKesson’s stock, falling from $241 to $148 or 39% in just 9 months from May of 2015 through February 2016. MCK has been on an acquisition spree as of late and announced layoffs of 1,600 workers or about 4% of its U.S. workforce. These collective efforts are aimed to stem any losses in revenue from a hit to its customer base while continuing to drive value for shareholders. McKesson has acquired two medical firms that focus in oncology for a total of $1.2 billion and Ontario-based Rexall Health for $2.2 billion. McKesson is being proactive and aligning its cost structure in a fiscally responsible manner in order to remain competitive and add value to shareholders. At the writing of my previous article covering McKesson, it had hit a 52-week low of ~$150 in March. Since then, the stock has been on an uptick to current levels at $182 or 20% rise in its stock price. McKesson appears very attractive considering its EPS growth, dividend payout, acquisitive mindset and share buyback program however concerns remain. Continue reading "McKesson Posts Solid Fiscal Q4 Earnings - Concerns Remain" →

Will The Fed Raise Rates This Summer? It's Iffy

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago the odds were heavily against the Federal Reserve raising interest rates before September. Now it seems the market consensus believes the Fed will raise rates before the end of the summer, either at its June or July meeting (there is no meeting in August). I for one am still not convinced.

While I think the Fed certainly should raise rates at its next meeting – but then I thought they should have begun tightening monetary policy two years ago – I still don’t think it has the cojones to do so, despite some recent comments to the contrary. I also think politics will play a bigger role in a rate decision than many market observers believe. Indeed, I haven’t heard many of them bringing up that point. More on that in a minute.

What changed market opinion? Continue reading "Will The Fed Raise Rates This Summer? It's Iffy" →

The Dollar Takes 'EM Down

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Dear readers, I am very grateful to get all your feedback and suggestions that you kindly share with me all the time! Rasesh Shukla, one of our regular readers asked about the Emerging market currencies and particularly about Indian rupee in a comment this month. And I am pleased to share my thoughts with all of you in this post.

Chart 1. 5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX

5-Year Dynamics of Top FX vs. EM FX
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

I want to start with the comparison chart of the top currencies presented by inverse dollar index, consisting of 6 currencies: Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc (orange line) versus the emerging market currencies presented by WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW, green line). The former is quite representative, it tracks the value of the following 15 currencies: Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, Chilean Peso, Colombian Peso, South African Rand, Polish Zloty, Russian Ruble, Turkish New Lira, Chinese Yuan, South Korean Won, Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Thai Baht. Continue reading "The Dollar Takes 'EM Down" →