Gold Chart of the Week

Each week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (December 10 through December 14th)

I am not sure if I have ever been so happy to close the books on a week of trading, as I was last week on Friday. You wouldn’t think that it was that bad if you look at the daily chart today, but it was not easy to sit through either a short or a long position in the Metals last week. I will explain why.

The week began with Gold and Silver dropping below the support trendlines that were held from early November. They also were dropping alongside a weakening Dollar. I understood the selling from a technical perspective, but fundamentally I was a bit puzzled in the short term. Once support was found, Monday’s decoupling from the usual relationship to the US Dollar made holding new long positions a bit difficult. Furthermore, the rangy trade over the next four days had a “Groundhog’s Day” feel to it. It seemed as though Metals prices opened around the same price each day, closed the European Markets at the same price each day, closed the pit traded session at the same price each day, and closed the electronic session at the same price each day. Short option traders long for weeks like those, but futures traders had to be a bit uneasy. I know I was. Continue reading "Gold Chart of the Week"

New Video: Copper soars on Chinese data

Hello traders everywhere! Jeremy Lutz here with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 10th of December.

Stocks are seeing modest strength in mid-day trading today. Upbeat data from China has been partly offset by political uncertainty in Italy.

Reports showed that Chinese industrial output rose 10.1 percent year-over-year in November following a 9.6 percent increase in October, while annual Chinese retail sales growth accelerated to 14.9 percent from 14.5 percent.

However, uncertainty about the political situation in Italy following news that Prime Minister Mario Monti intends to resign has helped to limit the upside for the markets.

Monti's decision to step down came after he lost the support of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's People of Freedom party. Monti said he would try to pass a budget for 2013 before resigning.

Let's see what the Trade Triangles say about the markets today.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz

Click Here to view today's video

The Future of Managed Futures… Past, Present and Future!

The first Managed Futures Fund may have actually been established around 1948, but the investment vehicle really became en vogue as Richard Dennis and his infamous “Turtles” gained in popularity. Richard Dennis, although working his way up from a runner, really began his reputation as large trader in the 70’s. The 70’s had crop failures to contend with and inflationary conditions which Richard Dennis could use his trend-trading style to position trade. By 1983, he believed that he could teach his methodology to an average woman/man to trade successfully as he had. He had been quoted by the Wall Street Journal in 1989 saying “We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore” thus coining the name “Turtles”! He selected his 21 men and 2 woman to learn the trend-following system with success, increasing his notoriety and adding some new traders to the spotlight. Actually about 60% of the trades may have lost money getting stopped out while the balance of trades were held with trailing stops to garnish more from the position. Other traders sprang up into the spotlight like Paul Tudor Jones and John Henry. The methodology is proprietary to the trader and never really divulged, so the entries, stops and the targets remain exclusive in most managed products. The trading model may take years to cultivate! Futures trading is a zero-sum game where there is a loss for every gain and vice versa. The challenge for the trader was to create a percentage to his/her favor! Continue reading "The Future of Managed Futures… Past, Present and Future!"

Weighing the Risks in International Oil Plays

The Energy Report: Amin, you started your career in the consumer credit industry, where you were involved in risk management at a major bank. How does that translate to the securities industry?

Amin Haque: The company I worked for was MasterCard International Inc., and as director of risk management, my focus was on macroeconomic risk management in international jurisdictions. That gave me a very good foundation for evaluating sovereign, political and currency risks. In my four-year career with MasterCard, I focused on countries in Africa, the Middle East, South America, the Caribbean and the Asia Pacific. These are the same regions where many of the exploration and production (EP) companies I'm interested in operate. My previous experience is proving quite useful as an oil and gas analyst.

TER: When you look at a company, do you consider the jurisdictional risk first?

AH: Jurisdictional risk differentiates a company focused in North America from one that operates internationally. For the latter, geology, exploration history and reserves matter as much as they do for a North American company, but equally important considerations are geopolitical or currency risks. These issues affect operations as well as profit repatriation.

TER: Do you focus on the downside? Continue reading "Weighing the Risks in International Oil Plays"

An Interview With Brian Booth of longleaftrading.com

I recently interviewed Brian Booth from longleaftrading.com. Many of you will remember the name as he writes our Gold Chart of the Week article each Monday right here on the Trader's Blog.

Before getting involved in the financial markets Brian was involved in the life insurance business. This lead to an interest in the stock market and long-term financial planning.

I think you'll find Brian's approach very refreshing when you watch this Skype interview. In the interview, I was able to ask Brain some very pointed questions such as, "what is the worst trade you ever made?" I think you'll be surprised at how Brian feels about that trade today.

I hope you enjoy this interview with one of the most interesting market minds I have run across in recent times.

Adam Hewison
Co-Founder of MarketClub.com