Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Some investors believe that the price of Bitcoin could hit $100k. In this post, I'll share some measurements I made in the bitcoin chart to see if there is some evidence for such strong optimism.

There is a logarithmic (log) monthly chart of bitcoin below. I chose the log scale to show you the coin's relative performance. It will reveal the different angle of view on the price dynamics for you.

Monthly Bitcoin Chart

We can highlight two completed large moves to the upside marked with numbers accordingly. On the right side of each move, there are light blue statistics windows showing how much, how long, and how sharp the move was. Continue reading "Can You Imagine Bitcoin At $103,000?" →

Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Labor Department said the U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January, slightly below the 50,000 payrolls expected by economists. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, better than projections of 6.7%. December's numbers were revised much lower, with the month posting a loss of 227,000 from the initial reading of 140,000 jobs lost.

After suffering their worst week in months, the major indexes will wrap up the week with five straight days of gains ending with their best week since November. The S&P 500 will post a weekly gain of +4.7%, the DOW +3.9%, and the NASDAQ will outperform with a significant gain of +6%.

The U.S. dollar continues to push higher with a weekly gain of +1% and trading back above $91 for the first time since November. This week's gain will mark back-to-back weekly gains for the dollar. Continue reading "Markets Shake Off Disappointing Jobs Number" →

Treasury Yields Suggest A Top Is Near

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months. My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in the next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.

Expect a continued rally as long as yields stay below certain levels.

In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000. This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20. After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.

In late 2000, Yields collapsed well below the zero levels and recovered back above zero in early 2001. Just 3+ months later, Yields had rallied above the Breakdown Threshold level (1.2) and the US stock markets had already begun to breakdown as well. This instance, the 2000-01 peak, took place after an Appreciation cycle phase prompted an Excess Phase Rally (the DOT COM bubble). The “Rollover Top” that took place near this top may be similar to what we see happen in 2021 if our research is correct. Continue reading "Treasury Yields Suggest A Top Is Near" →

New President, New Investment Decisions!

Posted on by Matt Thalman

It is said that the first 100 days of a new Presidents term are potentially the most important days of their time in office. This is because, during that first 100 days, they are making all sorts of new policy changes, appointing people to positions, and generally laying out an outline of what they will try to accomplish in the coming years.

Thus far, President Joe Biden has been no different from any President before him. He has written new executive orders, made appointments, and allowed certain arms of the Federal government to have 'more' control of certain things. President Biden's actions have in some small and some large ways already affected your money.

Let's talk about a few things the President has done and how your money has been affected.

To me, one significant move President Biden has taken was appointing former Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, to the Secretary of the Treasury. This appointment to me instilled faith, trust, and a lean toward dovish economic policies in the near term as the country continues to get past the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. This has probably given your portfolio as a whole a mild boost higher.

More recently, the Biden administration has, in others words, 'taken the handcuffs' off the CDC. It was reported that under the Trump administration, the CDC was 'hushed' and dealt with push-back about certain recommendations they wanted to implement during the pandemic. Now that Biden is in office, the CDC quickly announced orders that required masks to be worn on all forms of public transportation, which the Trump administration apparently did not allow. More so than that, the CDC reported that it was investigating requiring a negative Covid-19 test before allowing any passenger board any domestic flight. Continue reading "New President, New Investment Decisions!" →

The Fed's Role In GameStop

Posted on by The INO.com Team

All of the news articles and media commentary on the volatility in GameStop (GME) stock last week centered on the supposed war between retail investors who were buying the stock, putting a squeeze on those evil rich hedge-fund managers who had shorted the stock. And the Davids, at least for now, were beating the Goliaths. Good versus evil is always easy to understand and makes for a compelling story, especially when "the little guy" prevails.

Morality play aside, a lot of people were probably scratching their heads as to why some people would be so enthusiastic about buying stock in a company that appears to be 10 years behind the times, seeing as how its main business consists of selling or reselling physical copies of digital games even as the rest of the world has moved onto streaming. It also cast a lot of attention on short-selling, with many people receiving a crash course in the tactic.

However, it's also another example of how the Federal Reserve's super-loose monetary policy and 0% interest rates are distorting investor behavior. While retail investors on Robinhood and other platforms are driving up the price of what otherwise might be a stock headed in the other direction, we need to remember one of the reasons why investors are willing to make such outlandish bets like this.

It demonstrates the lengths some investors will go to make money because it's become difficult to do so in more conventional (i.e., safe) investments, such as quality stocks and bonds. It also reveals the almost devil-may-care attitude some investors have adopted, believing that the Fed will eventually ride to their rescue. Continue reading "The Fed's Role In GameStop" →