Are Real Estate ETFs The Next Big Trade?

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

A subscriber recently mentioned getting into a real estate ETF so we started going over the data which may suggest the Real Estate sector could become the next big trade over the next 12+ months. The news that the US Fed may decrease rates in an attempt to front-run global economic weakness and real estate market weakness may result in a waterfall event in local and regional real estate markets. This type of event could become a fantastic trading opportunity for technical traders.

Recently we have been talking about the unit and very different opportunities in other physical assets like precious metals. Each metal is unique for market timing has its own personality. Our gold predictions are an eye-opener, why silver is awesome, and our most recent analysis on platinum is timely.

Overall, our research has been focused on one of the hottest markets anywhere in the US, California. Los Angeles, Ventura County, Orange County, San Diego, and San Francisco make up the entire massive Southern California real estate market. The California real estate market is a fairly strong indicator for weaker market segments because the number of transactions taking place across the 400+ miles spanning San Francisco to San Diego represent multiple trillions of dollars, vast segments of consumers and types of housing as well as an incredibly diverse economic landscape ranging from coastal regions, farming regions, cities, technology hubs, agriculture and dozens of others (source).

Our concern is that a rate decrease by the US Fed may be interpreted as a “move to attempt to abate fear” instead of a “move to support the markets”. If this decrease in rates does happen and at-risk homeowners fear the Fed is trying to push buttons to adjust the consumer environment toward a “buying bias” and sellers become scared, then the race to sell faster (decreasing prices to attract buyers) may become the norm. In other words, in an effort to support the markets, the Fed could take actions that remove the floor from the markets as sellers attempt to get the best price possible before buyers become aware of the “race to the bottom” in terms of pricing. Continue reading "Are Real Estate ETFs The Next Big Trade?" →

Gold Stock Launch In The Books; What's Next

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

You may know me as the…

gold

…guy.

The guy using the planets of an imaginary gold sector Macrocosm with proper fundamentals that are decidedly not imaginary but rather, are necessary to call a real bull phase or even bull market. By managing a strict set of macro and sector fundamental inputs (to the sound of crickets and little else in the sector) NFTRH and its subscribers had a front row seat to the now obvious gold mining launch as first the fundamentals came in line, followed by the technicals.

The reason this needs to be highlighted is because there is a popular Elliott Wave analyst out there * (among a few others) talking about how it’s all in the wave counts (unless they are revised, as often happens with EW) or other technicals, and fundamentals don’t matter. As if the answer is all technical and sentiment based. Well, those two things are important, but please. As happened in dramatic fashion when we became super bullish in Q4 2008, the fundamentals kicked in first and gave a green light to taking technical signals more seriously along the way. Look, I am a TA too, but The Men Who Stare at Charts exclusively are pitching only half the story. Continue reading "Gold Stock Launch In The Books; What's Next" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Platinum Futures

Platinum futures in the October contract is up $2 at 819 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 815 up about $4 for the trading week still experiencing very low volatility as prices are right near a 3 week high. I will be recommending a bullish position if we break the 838 level while placing the stop loss at the contract low which was hit on May 30th at 793 as the risk would be around $2,300 plus slippage and commission.

Gold futures are trading almost $600 higher than platinum as in the old days platinum used to trade higher than gold as this spread is really wide at the current time as I think platinum prices look extremely cheap to the rest of the sector and especially gold.

Platinum prices are now trading above their 20-day, but still below their 100-day moving average as the trend at the current time as mixed as I will wait for the breakout to occur before entering as I will not go short.

The volatility you would have to think will start to expand to the upside in the coming weeks and months ahead as it looks to me that prices over the last month are forming a bottoming out pattern.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,413 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,400 up about $13 for the trading week and traded as high as 1,442 before profit-taking came about, but I do think higher prices are ahead. It won't surprise me if we consolidate due to the $150 rally that we've witnessed over the last month as tensions with the country of Iran continue to support prices.

Gold is trading far above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher as I also have a bullish recommendation in silver and palladium while keeping a close eye on platinum to the upside. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Will CVS Health and Walgreens Survive?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Is it the single payer narrative being pushed by Democratic Presidential frontrunners? Is it the Amazon threat via its acquisitions of PillPack and Whole Foods that may displace traditional pharmacies? Is it the drug pricing pressures that are eroding margins and limiting margin expansion over time? Is it the secular decline in the physical footprint storefront retail space that’s hindering foot traffic and off-the-shelf purchases? Regardless of whether or not it’s singularly attributable to one of these factors or the culmination of all the aforementioned factors, CVS Health (CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) are being pressured in many different directions. CVS and Walgreens have plummeted by 53% ($113 to $53) and 46% ($97 to $52), respectively from their multi-year highs. Over $110 billion in combined market capitalization has been erased from these two companies. With threats coming from all angles, will these two pharmaceutical supply chain heavyweights be able to not only survive but compete and revive their dominance in the marketplace?

Backdrop and Market Dynamics

The pharmaceutical supply chain cohort, specifically CVS and Walgreens, are simply unable to obtain firm footing in the backdrop of consolidation within the sector, negative legislative undertones, drug pricing pressures, rising insurance costs and a market that has lost patience with these stocks. All of these factors culminate into sub-par growth with a level of uncertainty as this sector continues to face headwinds from multiple directions. Many of the stocks that comprised this cohort presented compelling valuations in a very frothy market. This allure has been a value trap as these stocks continue to be a falling knife. It’s no secret that these companies have been faced with several headwinds that have negatively impacted the growth and the changing marketplace conditions have plagued these stocks. Continue reading "Will CVS Health and Walgreens Survive?" →

Stock Market Erases May Losses

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. As we enter the last couple of hours of June trading, I thought I'd take a look at the monthly charts and see where we stand. Not shockingly the S&P 500 and DOW both erased their May losses gaining +6.6% and +7.1% respectively while the NASDAQ is just short of erasing it's -7.9% loss with a June gain of +7.3%. These gains are mostly due to two things, the promise of a China trade deal and optimism that the Fed will announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in July.

The only laggard of the seven instruments that I track to have a losing month is the U.S. dollar which will post it's most significant monthly loss since December of last year standing at -1.4%.

Gold is having it's best month in quite a while gaining +8% for June as traders flock to the haven hedging their bets that a trade deal will get done. This is the first time since April of 2018 that gold has traded above the $1400 level. Continue reading "Stock Market Erases May Losses" →