The Most Important Stock To Watch This Month Is...

Posted on by admin

By: John Kosar of Street Authority

All major U.S. indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive week, this time led by the small-cap Russell 2000, which was up 1.2%. Year to date, however, the Russell has by far been the weakest, up just 0.9%. This puts the burden for continued broad market leadership squarely on the other traditional market leader -- technology.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has been up to the challenge so far, posting a 13.7% gain year to date, and is a major reason why the SP 500 is up 8.4% in 2014. But with small caps already weak, if and when technology stocks stop leading, the overall market is likely to run into some serious problems.

My own metric, which is based on ETF asset flows, shows that the largest inflow of sector-related investor assets last week was into defensive utilities and out of industrials. Accordingly, last week's strongest sector was utilities, up 2%, with industrials the only sector to finish the week in negative territory.

Be Aware Of September Seasonal Weakness

As we move into September, a good place to begin this week's report is with monthly seasonality. The chart shows that September is the seasonally weakest month of the year in the SP 500 since 1957. On average, it closed 0.68% lower for the month and posted a negative monthly close 54% of the time.

This is one of several good reasons to pay particularly close attention to your stock market investments this month, and to have a defensive plan already in place in case this 56-year seasonal pattern emerges again this year.

We should also note the historical tendency for a strong fourth-quarter rebound, so even if the market does correct this month, we should be looking for near-term weakness to potentially provide better intermediate-term buying opportunities. Continue reading "The Most Important Stock To Watch This Month Is..." →

Dollar General Is Going To Have To Pay A Lot More For Family Dollar

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This morning I woke up to see that Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) has raised its bid again to $80 a share or $9.1 billion to buy Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO). I don't think that Dollar General's bid is enough therefore I don't think Dollar General is going to be able to pick this stock up for just $80 a share.

In today's video, I'll show you how MarketClub's Trade Triangles nailed both of these stocks and how they got this trade right. I will also show you why I think Dollar General is going to have to up its bid – big time if it wants to acquire Family Dollar Stores. Last week, Dollar General said it remained committed to making this acquisition, however Dollar General's earnings and same-store sales fell short of market expectations. What does this mean? Is Dollar General reaching out for Family Dollar Stores now while its stock is still relatively high? I think so.

As I said earlier, I believe Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) is going to have to pay a lot more if it wants to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO). I will share with you the exact number I think that Dollar General is going to have to pay for Family Dollar stores if it wants to acquire that business.

I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting week so stay tuned.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Corporations Join Droves Renouncing US Citizenship

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By:Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, InternationalMan.com

Don't be surprised to lose if you don't make an effort at being competitive.

And if you go out of your way to make yourself less competitive, expect to lose.

If that sounds like simple common sense, that’s because it is.

But it's also exactly what the US has been doing for years—enacting tax policies that sabotage its global economic competitiveness.

It's like trying to get in shape for a marathon by going on an all-McDonald's diet. (Speaking of McDonalds, check out this funny video spoof of what their commercials should really look like.)

Here are two major reasons why the US is lagging in the global economic marathon: Continue reading "Corporations Join Droves Renouncing US Citizenship" →

HUI Timing Boxes

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In the previous post about ‘Gold Miners & Inflation’ it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind.  Here is a visual to put with that statement.

hui

The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down.  The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.

Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout.  So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.

Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives.  But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart/trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work.

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures hit a 2 week high today trading up $1.30 a barrel at 95.85 as tensions with Russia continue to prop up prices as I have been recommending a short position but it’s time to move on and look for another market as this trade hit a 10 day high today so if you took my short recommendation it’s time to exit and move on in my opinion. As a trader you must have an exit strategy and my exit strategy is if I’m short I place my stop at the 2 week high so currently sit on the sidelines and wait for a better trend to develop as this trade was disappointing but was pretty neutral but I do believe that over supplies eventually will continue to push prices lower but there is so much chaos going on in the Middle East at this point pushing prices higher so let’s wait for some better chart structure to develop as we might consolidate in the next several weeks so wait for another trend to develop as I like trading the crude oil market because sometimes the risk reward situation is highly in your favor since crude oil is a highly volatile commodity.
TREND: NEUTRAL
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →