The History & Likelihood Of V-shaped Oil Recoveries

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


In recent days, crude oil and natural gas prices have continued to undulate within a range near their lows. What’s next for the commodities, and for the energy companies whose fortunes are joined at the hip of oil and gas?

With producers like Shell, Occidental Petroleum, BP, and ConocoPhillips announcing big-dollar capital spending cuts, will oil’s chart soon be tracing a V-shape?

Will history rhyme?

Phil Flynn presented the following analysis in his article for Futures Magazine yesterday:

“In 12 data points when oil had a break of 40% or more within a year the market rallied back 52.8% within 12 months. Even when the break was only 30% with 20 times the rebound was still a very impressive 45.5% within 12 months. This snap back comes usually as the market realizes that a period of low prices will stimulate demand and cut backs in production will take their toll.”

Richard Hirayama, portfolio manager for WHV Investments, provided a similar perspective – based on calendar years – in his portfolio manager letter this month. Hirayama furnished this nugget: Continue reading "The History & Likelihood Of V-shaped Oil Recoveries"

What The Syrian Crisis Means For Oil Prices

By: David Goodboy of Street Authority

For a brief time in 1991, there was no question that I was going to earn a fortune.

By making a few lucky stock and option trades, I had accumulated a modest sum of trading capital in my brokerage account. Knowing that the United States was about to invade Iraq, I had no doubts that the markets would plunge as fears of Iraq's weapons and military capacity reached a fever pitch around the globe.

I decided to short the market with all of my meager funds. Knowing that the U.S. would invade any day, buying put options on the SP 100 index provided the most return for when the market plunged. As fate would have it, my timing on the invasion was dead on -- the U.S. launched the first airstrike the day after I purchased the put options. Continue reading "What The Syrian Crisis Means For Oil Prices"

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/StreetauthorityArticles/~3/wqr_7C33BaU/what-syrian-crisis-means-oil-prices-477956

Morning Energy Commentary

June crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 98.06 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.06. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 99.52. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.93.

June heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the February-April uptrend line crossing near 295.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Continue reading "Morning Energy Commentary"

Weekly Futures Recap W/ Mike Seery

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Grain Futures-- The grain futures this week saw extreme volatile trading action with November soybeans up nearly $.16 this Friday to settle around 12.20 a bushel trading right at its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average after settling last Friday at 12.10 a bushel gaining slightly as floods have entered the Midwest. Soybeans on the daily chart could have a possible double bottom in the November soybeans as prices traded as high as 12.40 in Wednesday’s trading session before retracing only the spring right back as weather conditions in many states are still receiving record snow. December corn futures are lower by 5 cents this Friday afternoon trading above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average which stands at 5.69 after settling last Friday at 5.24 up around $.35 for the week as massive floods are delaying planting. The Midwest has had the 2nd coldest spring in the history of the United States and has delayed planting significantly which is concerning after last year’s terrible crop. Wheat futures for the July contract have broken out above the 7.20 level which is now at a 4 week high trading above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average which stands at 7.48 and I do believe that there will be further buy stops which could propel prices even higher. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap W/ Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Precious Metal Futures-- The precious metals today were lower across the board after rallying sharply higher in early trade only to reverse and sell off towards the closing bell finishing lower for the 1st time in 4 trading sessions finishing down $8 an ounce in the June contract at 1,454. There has been extreme volatility lately finishing higher by $60 dollars for the week bucking its bearish trend and as I've been stating in previous blogs I remain bearish the precious metals, however I do believe gold will remain choppy and try to consolidate the huge collapse that we saw last week. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery"