Tag: Guest Bloggers

Beware of the March Effect on the Stock Market

Posted on by admin

"Beware the Ides of March." This famous line uttered by a soothsayer in William Shakespeare's 1601 play, "The Tragedy of Julius Caesar," warned the ruler of his pending demise on the 15th day of March.

Well, we all know what happened to Caesar.

We could apply this same warning to the stock market today.

In the past few years, every stock rally in the beginning of the each year was met by a sharp sell-off in the spring. Certainly, this doesn't portend to mean the entire year ended badly. In fact, those investors with the foresight to buy during the spring swoons generally ended the year with strong gains. Continue reading "Beware of the March Effect on the Stock Market" →

To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In a previous article, I explained commodity option expiration, exercising, and assignment. I noted a long (purchased) option position (call or put) has the right to exercise the contract. To make an informed decision, I will explain the result of exercising an option contract.

A commodity option contract is a decaying asset that will expire. As an option contract draws near its expiration date, set by the exchanges, both the time value and intrinsic value diminish. Time value is premium in relation to days until expiration. Intrinsic value is the premium in relation to the strike price’s distance from underlying futures contract price. Note that volatility will also play a role in the calculated premium price. The exception to intrinsic value diminishing is an in-the-money contract. At that point, the intrinsic value is a one-to-one ratio of the strike price in relation to the underlying futures contract. For example, a long April 2013 Gold 1600 call will be valued at 50 points (or $5,000) if futures are at 1650.0 on option expiration (March 25, 2013). On the other hand, if futures are at 1600.0 or below on expiration, the option contract is valued at zero. An in-the-money contract, before expiration, will also have time value included in the premium price. However, because there are a number of finite days until expiration, the time value diminishes from day one. Continue reading "To Exercise, Or Not To Exercise (Options), That Is The Question" →

Gold Chart of The Week

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

Weekly Gold Report (February 25th through March 1st)

It was a gut wrenching week for those who stayed long practically anything outside of the US Dollar or the Soybeans last week. Most commodity prices saw their fair share of selling mid-week after it was rumored that a large commodity fund was taking gains in a few markets to defend another large position that they found themselves on the wrong side of. While the name of the fund or the positions are still unknown, I can only guess the fund was taking gains in long positions in the Crude Oil to defend long positions in the Metals. On Wednesday, the Crude Oil Futures took a bath early in the session and selling pressure even carried over into the Thursdays trade before consolidating on Friday. Other commodities were pressured throughout the week as the US Dollar rallied ahead of the release of last months FOMC Minutes. There was nothing particularly shocking about the report as traders expected to hear that FED officials would still be at odds regarding the duration of Quantitative Easing. On top of this release, the market also had to deal with politicians in Washington, who began their media smearing of one another regarding the upcoming Sequester, which must be decided by March 1st. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week" →

How the Starbucks Effect Could Lead to 200% Gains

Posted on by admin

It's easy to find companies that have returned billions to shareholders in the past. And it's easy to find companies that dominate their markets right now.

But the future is much less certain.

As a long-term investor, how can you know your investments will continue to dominate the competition for years to come? How can you make sure they won't crumble under the weight of new competition, intense regulation, disruptive new technologies or a host of other potential problems? Continue reading "How the Starbucks Effect Could Lead to 200% Gains" →

Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Grain Futures-- Grain futures were mixed this week in a volatile trade with soybeans higher again for the 5th straight day up 28 cents at 14.83 in early trade only then to sell off tremendously to finish lower by 24 cents for the session closing at 14.31 after hitting a new 5 month high this Friday all due to the fact that the Argentina soybean crop was reduced 5% this week down from 53 MMT all the way to 50 MMT sparking massive short covering and now the large speculators getting long this market to the upside. Last Friday soybeans for the July contract settled at 13.99 having one of its best weekly gains in quite some time while corn futures are still below their 20 & 100 day moving average in the March contract settling at 6.95 last Friday basically unchanged for the trading week in a sideways pattern with major support at the 8 month lows at 6.80 and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am bearish the corn and wheat market and the soybean market is extremely choppy with many false breakouts including today. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery" →