Is 30.2.Au flying in Ben's face? Not yet

The FOMC announced that Operation Twist would continue through year end.  This is where the Fed tries to re-inflate the housing bubble (and related areas) by buying long term T bonds to artificially hold down long term interest rates while sopping up any inflationary implications to the money supply by selling short term T bonds.  Throw in a side of ZIRP, and you've got a lot of free money flying around out there with very subdued inflation effects.

Gold is in an orderly corrective consolidation.  Silver has been hanging around at support and is sponsored by a bullish CoT structure.  Commodities, even backing out the wildcards in agriculture, are in nice short-term bottoming patterns (copper is rounding upward and crude oil is breaking up from a small Inverted H&S with a target around 98) and just waiting for the Fed to lose control of the nice macro painting it has been working on since Op/Twist #1, back in September of 2011. Continue reading "Is 30.2.Au flying in Ben's face? Not yet"

Does Central-Bank Gold-Buying Signal the Top Is Near?

By Jeff Clark, Casey Research

Doug Casey told me in January, "The only thing that scares me is that central banks are buying a lot of gold; they're historically contrary indicators." When it comes to buying gold, central banks have such a poor timing record that they're frequently joked about as a contrary indicator. Continue reading "Does Central-Bank Gold-Buying Signal the Top Is Near?"

Deflation or Inflation?

John Mauldin, International Man

I am frequently asked in meetings or after a speech whether I think we will have inflation or deflation. "Yes," I readily reply, trying hard not to smirk, as the questioner tries to digest the answer. And while my answer is flippant, it's also the truth, as I do expect both outcomes. Following the obligatory chuckle from the rest of the group comes a follow-up request for a few more specifics. And they are that I expect we will first see deflation and then inflation, but the key is the timing. Continue reading "Deflation or Inflation?"

Chart to Watch

We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.

Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of SPDR ETf S&P 500. (SPY) Continue reading "Chart to Watch"

WASDE Review and Yield Scenarios for Corn & Soybeans

By: Craig Turner

CORN:

The WASDE increased ending stocks to 903 million bushels for 2011-2012 corn, up from 851 previously. The USDA has the July Corn yield at 146.0 and cut demand over 1 billion bushels. It is important to note what the yield is as of July 1 for the USDA. One can make the argument that since July 1 we have lost more bushels and we are probably closer to a 140 yield now. Continue reading "WASDE Review and Yield Scenarios for Corn & Soybeans"