Tag: Japanese Yen

What's Really Happening With The Japanese Yen?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Japanese Yen is making headlines, again. The Dollar-Yen trade pierced through the 110 support level and the Bank of Japan's credibility is at stake. It's only a matter of time before the BoJ swings its "sword" and slice rates again, or at least, so it seems. But while Yen strength has caused quite a stir in Japan, its origins, this time around, are rooted elsewhere.

Wall Street is flat, European bourses are falling and China isn’t out of the woods just yet. Japanese corporates keep hoarding cash and, of course, they need to park it somewhere. That “somewhere” is their default choice; i.e. repatriate the cash and buy into the safety of Japanese Government Bonds.

Chart of the Japanese Yen
Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Press

As illustrated in the chart, when comparing the Bloomberg Japan Sovereign Bond Index with S&P500 and Nikkei 225, demand for Japanese Government Bonds has been strong. Japanese Government Bonds beat both the S&P500 and the Nikkei 225 for the passing year. And that’s even more interesting when you consider the negative yields—it actually costs to hold Japanese Government Bonds.

How long can Japanese corporates keep repatriating funds and pay for the "privilege" to hold Japanese Government Bonds? Continue reading "What's Really Happening With The Japanese Yen?" →

Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, never disappoints when it comes to producing a juicy headline for the newswires. Last time, if you will recall, it was the surprise addition of new stimulus. This time around, in his speech to the Shūgiin, Japan's House of Representatives last week, Governor Kuroda exclaimed that "the Yen is fairly valued." He then continued to outline how the merits of monetary policy have limits.

And what was investors take on Kuroda's message? Clearly fearful. That was evident by the avalanche of investors who failed to consider the underlying message and quickly switched to crowded Yen buying. The USD/JPY move was brutal, with the pair taking a nose dive of 300 pips. Of course, soon after, analysts and experts provided their own take. Opinions ran from "The remarkable rise of the USD/JPY has finally come to an abrupt end" to "the BOJ will not add more stimulus." In fact, big bets on more and more stimulus are now well off the table. But, before you decide to follow the crowd, take a moment to stop, ponder and try to see this for what it very well may be. Simply put, perhaps the spike in the Yen's value is actually an opportunity to sell it high.

Kuroda Vs Bernanke

Markets are looking at Kuroda's speech as the BOJ saying, essentially, that shorting the Yen from here on out might not be such a good idea. It might also suggest that if the BOJ is pleased with the current value of the Yen, that they might then be less accommodative. Of course, no one knows what exactly goes through the governor's head except Kuroda himself, yet we can speculate. Before I do that, let me first draw a comparison to another central banker, Ben Bernanke, the now retired chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Continue reading "Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?" →

JPY Set For An Abrupt Move

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Over the past few weeks, the Yen has been softer against its European peers, e.g. the Euro and the Pound Sterling, as risk appetite gradually made a comeback. Yet against its American peer, the US Dollar, trade has been rather subdued. The Dollar and Yen, the world's most sought after safe haven currencies, move generally in tandem. Because investors have had some difficulty choosing the front runner between the two, it has resulted in a sideways moving USD/JPY pair. The combination of a soft patch in the US economy and uncertainty over Japan's economic future has also made it difficult for some market movers to assess the next trajectory for the Yen. Yet, in either case, that is still a mere projection with no tangible evidence (yet) to tilt sentiment either way, in favour of the Yen or in favour of the Dollar. However, that might soon change; moreover, the reaction in the USD/JPY could be abrupt, swift and for some, devastating. Continue reading "JPY Set For An Abrupt Move" →

Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Precious Metal Futures-- Precious metals in New York this week had a wild ride to the downside with gold finishing up $1 an ounce this Friday afternoon at 1,393 and was up nearly $30 in early trade just to selloff near session lows and during the week sold off about $105 dollars since last Friday settling at 1,501 and traded as low as 1,335 hitting a new 2 year low and as I’ve been advising in previous blogs I remain very bearish the precious metals sector, however I do believe that the easy money has been made and you could chop around here for next couple of weeks due to the fact of such a dramatic selloff which was the worst selloff since 1983 as investors see no reason to own gold at this point in time despite the fact of easy monetary policies throughout the world. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap W/Mike Seery" →