Top Fiat Currencies vs. Gold in 2021: "The Last Shall Be First"

It is time for a traditional yearly post to find out which fiat could beat the conventional store of value this year; all failed last year.

Seven currencies represent the fiat money: U.S. dollar (USD) and six components of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) placed by weight: Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK) and the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Let us see below how you predicted the future back at the end of December 2020.


Most of you picked Bitcoin, aka 'digital gold,' to win the race. You were right again; Bitcoin gained more than 80% against the gold this time. I will build a separate leaderboard for cryptos in coming posts as the main coin has its universe with a pack of newbies trying to claim the throne, so stay tuned.

The regular favorite, the U.S. dollar, was the second choice this year. The third bet was not obvious to me as the Swiss franc usually has been lost in the shadows somewhere between regular champions and exotic bets. Continue reading "Top Fiat Currencies vs. Gold in 2021: "The Last Shall Be First""

Gold & Silver: Fed Boosted The Dollar

Last Thursday, the dollar rallied, reaching a two-month high versus major currencies, a day after U.S. Federal Reserve shocked markets by projecting a hike in interest rates and an earlier end to emergency bond-buying.

Daily US Dollar Chart

The price broke above the black dotted trendline resistance, which does not look like a minor correction. Instead, I think this is an extension of a large retracement of the entire move down that started in March of 2020.

The market could build the second leg of this large consolidation marked with an orange color. I highlighted the last leg with a green zigzag to the upside. The current leg up could repeat the same two-movement structure, so I built the orange zigzag. The first move within a second leg up could be over. I expect the upcoming pullback to retest the broken trendline resistance. After that, the retracement could resume and hit the top of the first leg at 93.4. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Fed Boosted The Dollar"

Dollar Struggles, Gold Consolidates; Oil To Triple Digits?

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) finally entered the anticipated corrective phase as I called for it last month.

US Dollar Index

The confirmation came with the breakup of a gray resistance. The structure is not as sharp as I expected as the price is still below the Fibonacci retracement zone. All spikes are still around the initial breakout peak, around 90.5. Continue reading "Dollar Struggles, Gold Consolidates; Oil To Triple Digits?"

Dollar, Gold, And Silver Update

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) did not make a significant pullback despite my expectations posted earlier this month. The minor bounce was short-lived as the price quickly reversed all gains and updated the low after that.

Dollar, Gold, Silver Update: Daily US Dollar Chart

The downtrend is so strong that DXY could fit within a very narrow orange channel. However, I think we still need a visible correction to come, as new signals are alarming. Continue reading "Dollar, Gold, And Silver Update"

Dollar, Gold And Silver: The Market Takes A Break

The market does not move in a straight line. I anticipated a correction to start in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) as it moved down too far without a break, and it came at the end of last week. Traders decided to book some profit ahead of a weekend, pushing the price of the dollar higher.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

I highlighted the possible retracement area between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels with the orange rectangle within the 91.60 - 92.30 range. The dollar nears the first resistance. The top of the rectangle is very close to the trendline resistance, making it a fortified barrier. Continue reading "Dollar, Gold And Silver: The Market Takes A Break"