AMZN Enters the Dow: What It Means for Investors and the Market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), often referred to as the Dow, is one of the most enduring and esteemed price-weighted indices, overseeing 30 prominent publicly traded companies listed on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

Throughout its history, the Dow has functioned as a reliable gauge of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and economy. The companies featured in the Dow are often regarded as stalwarts in their respective industries.

However, over the past years, the absence of a few major tech giants within the index has led to its downfall. As the S&P 500 takes the lead, questions have been raised on Dow’s ability to correctly capture the essence of Artificial Intelligence’s (AI) impact on the U.S. economy.

In 2023, the Dow recorded a 13.7% increase, whereas the S&P 500 saw a 24.2% surge. Looking at year-to-date performance, the S&P 500 has risen by about 7%, compared to the Dow's increase of over 2%.

The performance gap between the indexes can be largely attributed to the S&P 500's heavier focus on big tech stocks, which have emerged as significant market winners. The anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential shift from rate hikes to cuts, coupled with the AI frenzy, propelled tech stocks to unprecedented heights last year.

Out of the few major big tech players, namely Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), only two tech titans MSFT and AAPL were included in the Dow up until last month.

However, considering the Dow’s lagging performance compared to the S&P 500 and its lack of exposure to big tech stocks, in a recent bold move to revitalize its performance and embrace the tech wave, Dow replaced pharmaceutical retailer Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) with e-commerce giant, AMZN. Among the 30 blue chip companies listed in the Dow, AMZN holds the 17th position by weight.

But What Led to AMZN's Inclusion Into the Dow?

AMZN's inclusion in the Dow Jones index can be attributed to a three-for-one split implemented by Walmart, Inc. (WMT), also in the Dow. Companies within the Dow are weighted according to their stock price. Therefore, WMT's stock split, which effectively reduces its price and thereby its weight within the index, necessitated a rebalancing. Consequently, the Dow opted to incorporate AMZN into its listing.

S&P Dow Jones Indices indicates that this adjustment mirrors the evolving landscape of the American economy, which is expected to amplify consumer retail exposure alongside other business sectors within the Dow. Beyond AMZN's retail aspect, its addition to the Dow could elevate the index's performance, propelled by AMZN's increasing influence in the tech sector.

Commanding a market cap of over $1.80 trillion, AMZN has spread its wings across various industries over the past few years. While renowned for its remarkable retail operations, its substantial advancements in the entertainment landscape through Amazon Prime Video, Amazon Music, Prime Gaming, and Twitch underscore its versatility and impact.

Moreover, the company has also achieved notable progress in the tech space, particularly with its Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment, capitalizing on the surge in demand for Cloud and AI services. According to Statista, AWS generated $90.80 billion with its cloud services in 2023.

Additionally, buoyed by a record-breaking holiday shopping season, AMZN witnessed solid year-over-year growth in both its topline and bottom-line figures in the final quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, its AWS segment, which recorded a net sale of $24.20 billion, was more profitable than analysts had predicted and accounted for 14% of AMZN’s overall revenue in the same quarter.

With AMZN’s focus on fortifying its foothold in the realm of AI, the company, during the fourth quarter, launched the Q chatbot for developers and nontechnical corporate workers, alongside unveiling its partnership with chip kingpin NVDA to provide cutting-edge infrastructure, software, and services, aimed at supporting customers' advancements in generative AI.

On the earnings call, AMZN’s CEO Andy Jassy emphasized that generative AI remains a focal point for AMZN, with ongoing dedication and investment. He highlighted its potential to revolutionize numerous customer experiences and processes, foreseeing it as a significant driver of tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMZN in the coming years.

Bottom Line

Despite the Dow lagging behind the S&P 500 index, inclusion in the Dow serves as a clear signal to investors, analysts, and the financial media, indicating a company's status as a stalwart of the American economy.

That being said, AMZN’s inclusion among the top 30 blue-chip companies comes as no surprise, considering the company’s strong financial prowess, relentless success, and diverse portfolio spanning retail, entertainment, and technology.

In addition, AMZN's robust financial performance in its last reported quarter, along with its recent partnerships with industry giants such as NVDA and product launches to fortify its position in the realm of AI, underscore its potential for further expansion and innovation.

Looking forward, Wall Street is buzzing with high expectations for the company’s fiscal first-quarter earnings, forecasting an impressive 11.9% year-over-year revenue climb to $142.48 billion, alongside a remarkable 171.6% year-over-year EPS surge to $0.84.

Furthermore, driven by AMZN’s competitive advantages, including its strong positions in logistics, e-commerce, and cloud computing, Wall Street projects the company to achieve revenue growth close to 10% by 2028. Street also anticipates slight increases in its EBITDA margin, reaching 21.2% by the end of 2028, and predicts AMNZ's market cap will reach $3 trillion over the next five years.

With such bullish sentiment echoed by analysts for the company’s future prospects coupled with its inclusion in the prestigious Dow index, institutional investors are flocking to AMZN shares, with 2,532 holders ramping up their stakes, reaching a total of 312,340,167 shares. Moreover, 428 institutions have taken new positions (32,292,371 shares).

This surge in institutional investment speaks volumes about the growing confidence in AMZN's future prospects. In light of all the encouraging aforementioned factors, AMZN emerges as a compelling investment opportunity.

Is Wal-Mart in trouble?

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is the largest retailer in the world, and if they are have problems, then we really have to examine and be concerned about what is really happening to the economy.

Yesterday, it was reported that Wal-Mart stores were cutting back on U.S. orders amid an inventory backlog. It was later denied by David Tovar a spokesperson for Wal-Mart. However, true or false it managed to push the stock of Wal-Mart down over 2% on the day.

That is a fundamental viewpoint. What is interesting technically about Wal-Mart is the fact that it recently broke below a 25 month trend line.Trend lines are enormously important for determining the momentum and trends of stocks, commodities, and any number of items that can be charted. In order to be a valid trend line, it must touch three points along the line to be truly meaningful. The longer the time frame, the more meaningful and powerful the trend line becomes. A two year trend line like Wal-Mart recently broke thru to the downside is significant and should not be ignored.

Continue reading "Is Wal-Mart in trouble?"

Today's Video Update: Walmart, Ammo and The Constitution

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and Co-creator of MarketClub, with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 29th of July.

It Is All About Commerce, That Is What Makes America Strong
Over the weekend I stopped at Walmart (NYSE:WMT), as I needed to purchase some Allen wrenches to make some adjustments to my new bicycle. I was standing in Walmart next to where they sell guns and I ran into Dave and Joe, two regular, everyday Americans. Dave, a Walmart employee, was telling Joe that he could only buy three boxes of ammo when they had it in stock. With that comment, I decided to ask him why was Walmart, one of the largest retailers in the country, restricting purchases of ammo to everyday Americans?

The answer I got was that there is a shortage of ammo in America. Dave repeated that Walmart cannot get enough supply because Homeland Security has been buying vast amounts of ammo for what reason Dave did not know. Here is the point that I am making, by restricting Walmart and other companies, you're really not helping the employment picture. Especially when it's an artificial shortage brought on by the administration.

Now before I go any further, I just want to say that I do not own a gun, so I have no axe to grind on that front. But I do have an axe to grind with the administration that seems to go against everything that's in the Constitution. Mainly, the right to bear arms. The government is creating problems for business and employment when it steps in-between demand and supply chains that work efficiently when left alone. If history has taught us anything it is this, when you have any kind of restrictions or controls come into a free market, they never ever work. The free market ,with all its imperfections, is still more efficient and works better when it's left alone, than any government policy the world has ever seen. Continue reading "Today's Video Update: Walmart, Ammo and The Constitution"

Today's Video Newsletter: Slap on an Apple, and plug in a Tesla

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Thursday, the 21st of February.

In addition to the markets we normally report on, we will also be looking at the following markets using our Trade Triangle technology.

SLAP ON AN APPLE
First filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark office in August 2011 and just discovered today by Allappnews.com, is Apple's patent for a “bi-stable spring with flexible display.” In other words, this could be the long-rumored iWatch. Here is what the patent states: With touch screen user input, a user can accomplish a number of different tasks including adjusting the order of a current playlist, and reviewing a list of recent phone calls. A response to a current text message can even be managed given a simple virtual keyboard configuration across the face of the flexible display. We will be looking at Apple (AAPL) today with our Trade Triangle technology to see if this new patent discovery moved the needle or if it makes sense technically to buy, sell, or take a rain-check on this stock. Continue reading "Today's Video Newsletter: Slap on an Apple, and plug in a Tesla"