Realized 14% Gain After Netflix's Recent Beat - Without Owning Shares

Introduction

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) recently reported stellar quarterly numbers alongside robust subscriber growth that propelled the shares from ~$100 to $120 by the next day and ultimately to $130 within a few days (Figure 1). Netflix announced that it brought in 370 thousand net subscribers in the U.S. during Q3 while posting only 160 thousand net subscribers during the previous quarter. Furthermore, its international strength was very robust, adding 3.2 million against a 2.0 million consensus. Netflix’s guidance was higher than most estimates as well coming in 520 thousand and 3.75 million subscribers domestically and internationally, respectively. I’ve written a series of articles highlighting ways to leverage options trading to augment a long position or potentially entering into a position in Netflix. I’ve highlighted ways in which one can layer in covered calls to mitigate risk in a long position as well as utilizing secured puts to enter into a position at a lower price or avoid owning the stock altogether while making money. I’ll discuss my covered call/secured put combination strategy to unlock additional value, mitigate risk and generate income. I’ll break this strategy out into segments to exemplify the power of options when dealing with an intrinsically volatile stock with significant upside potential such as Netflix. In brief, I’ve realized a 13.2% gain relative to a -3.1% loss based on the traditional buy and hold strategy based on the closing price on 11Nov16 of ~$115.

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Chart
Figure 1 – Netflix’s upward movement after announcing numbers that beat analysts’ expectations

Overview

Netflix is a highly volatile stock with a 52-week range of $80-$133 per share or a $53 per share range. Layered within that range are swings of $10 per share or more (~10%) throughout the course of any given day. These swings to the upside or downside can be difficult to stomach especially after the most recent earnings announcement where the stock cratered by $15 per share in one day (~$100 to $85). There’s no disputing the fact that Netflix has an outrageous valuation and a wide range of intrinsic volatility. Case in point, a $20 move per share was witnessed the day after Netflix beat expectations when they announced Q3 numbers. This intrinsic volatility is more pronounced during any major news story (i.e. expansion into international markets or subscriber price increases) and specifically around earnings announcements. As a result of the nosebleed valuation and volatility, in my opinion, options are a great companion when committing capital to Netflix stock. Continue reading "Realized 14% Gain After Netflix's Recent Beat - Without Owning Shares"

Politically-Driven S.O.D. (Sons of Druckenmiller) To Lose Again

By: Gary Tanashian of biiwii.com

You know who they are; they are the ones who denied and denied the ginned up bull market in US stocks that nearly tripled under the socialist regime, circa 2009-2016.  They are the ones who clung to gold well past the caution point last summer.  They are (yes, it’s another snappy buzz phrase to either entertain, bore or annoy you… ) the S.O.D., AKA the Sons of Druckenmiller, AKA politically biased and newly activated market participants.  Reference…

Druckenmiller:  Get out of the stock market, own gold (this helped load the boat full of ill-fated gold bugs in the spring).

The night Trump was elected president, Stanley Druckenmiller dumped gold (this signaled the beginning of reparations to gold’s sentiment profile).  He also became very bullish on the stock market; go figure.

Still feel like following the MSM and these media stars they shove down gullible peoples’ throats?

So the well known and much respected Druck was bullish on gold and bearish on the US stock market until he famously flipped his script literally upside down in a knee-jerked response to the presidential election, which cast off the commies and brought in a man who promised to ‘reshore’ America’s outsourced industries (folks, the smoke stacks are gone and they are not coming back, although more Robots may well be, in time).*  He has promised to cut taxes including especially, corporate taxes, and he has promised myriad other fixes to help the economy trickle down to the long-abused middle class. Continue reading "Politically-Driven S.O.D. (Sons of Druckenmiller) To Lose Again"

Happy Thanksgiving From INO.com

Happy Thanksgiving From INO.com"We must find the time to stop and thank the people who make a difference in our lives."
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Ford To Stay In America, Two Trump Thumbs Up On This One

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. You've probably heard by now that the Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is not going to be moving one of its plants to Mexico. Finally, the U.S. is waking up and realizing that it cannot be a superpower while having a service economy. Whether you voted for Trump or not, I think we have to give him credit for this save. Hopefully, some of the other promises he made will also help the U.S. economy like lowering taxes and nixing some of the onerous regulations that are handicapping businesses in the U.S.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

So far the markets seem to like what they see with all of the indexes higher for the week. The big winner this week was the NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) which jumped +1.84%.

However, the biggest winner for the week is Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL.Z16.E) which is up +5.32% for the week. The big loser is gold (NYMEX:GC.Z16.E) which is down -0.87%. Let’s examine how the Trade Triangles are positioned in both of these markets. Continue reading "Ford To Stay In America, Two Trump Thumbs Up On This One"

Cannabis Industry Bats 88% As 8 Out Of 9 States Vote Yes

Analysis originally distributed on November 10, 2016 By: Michael Vodicka of Cannabis Stock Trades

The results are in. November 8, 2016 will go down in history as a great day for the legal cannabis industry and the world.

Nine U.S. states had medical and recreational marijuana programs on the ballot. From those nine states, eight have voted yes.

On the recreational side, four out of five states have approved new initiatives.

  • California: passed
  • Massachusetts: passed
  • Nevada: passed
  • Maine: passed
  • Arizona: failed

As you can see this list includes California, the world’s largest marijuana market.

On the medical side, all four states voted yes.

  • Florida: passed
  • Arkansas: passed
  • Nevada: passed
  • North Dakota: passed
  • Montana: passed

Florida looked like a huge baller this election cycle.

Not only did it virtually decide the presidential election as a key swing state, it also decided to throw another log on the fire and legalized medical marijuana for good measure.

These results mark a watershed moment for the legal cannabis industry. I expect these additional legalizations to serve as a huge catalyst for the industry.

On January 1, 2017, 29 states, more than half the country, will have medical and recreational programs in place.

That will create new jobs, increase tax revenue and decrease crime.

I also expect it to be a powerful catalyst for marijuana stocks. Continue reading "Cannabis Industry Bats 88% As 8 Out Of 9 States Vote Yes"