Category: General

Caution, Caution, Caution

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Here we are at the first trading day of 2015. You may remember one of my posts in December indicating that the markets can be quite dangerous over the holiday time period. Well, that same danger carries over in to the first week of January when many traders are just getting back from vacations and preparing to setup their trading desks for the New Year. Typically, I like to get serious about the market after the first full trading week of January is over and volume once again returns to the market.

At the moment, we're still in a very low volume period indicating that the markets can be extremely volatile on a moment's notice. You only have to look at gold in the last several days to see the extreme swings up and down that market is going through, which proves my point. This extreme kind of market action can happen in any market with little or no notice - so the word for today and next week is caution, caution, caution.

On A Personal Note

I hope everyone had a wonderful time with family and loved ones over the Christmas holidays.

I am very fortunate, thought some would say unfortunate, that right after Christmas I have a birthday. The 26th of December is my birthday, for those of you living in England and Australia, that's Boxing Day. I've gotten to the age when birthday presents really aren't my thing anymore as I pretty much have all the underwear and socks I will ever need. However, this year was different, as I did want something, something very special and close to my heart. Continue reading "Caution, Caution, Caution" →

What's Ahead In 2015?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Here we are, the first day of 2015, thinking about what's ahead this year. There's no doubt about it, 2014 was a good year for most stock investors and we hope you got your share of the pie.

The big standouts to me in 2014 were the mega drop in oil prices and the fact that gold prices have lost two years in a row. The last time that happened was in 1997 – so what's ahead in 2015?

I think that 2015 will offer some amazing opportunities for smart, knowledgeable investors. The key to trading this year is to go with the flow and don't fight the market. I don't know of any market expert who, in January of last year, forecast a 40% drop in oil prices. I'm not sure I heard anyone predicting that gold prices were going to have back-to-back losses two years in a row.

What does that tell you?

The investors or gurus who hold fixed beliefs and feel compelled to defend their market opinions are doomed. Investors who hold rigid market opinions in 2015 are not going to fair well and enjoy positive returns. That's just my opinion, and I reserve the right to change it at any time.

Here is another timeless piece of advice for 2015: Continue reading "What's Ahead In 2015?" →

Understanding the Basics of Technical Analysis

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Whether you are trading stocks or currency, technical analysis is an advanced tool used to try and predict changes in your market and trade accordingly.

At the base of technical analysis is price history. You are studying the price of a currency, it’s up and downs, and looking for an obvious indicator that will tell you when another up or down is coming up. Think of it like trying to learn to read tea leaves to see the future – except there is real science behind it.

Using Charts For Technical Analysis

The most basic tool for technical analysis is your chart or graph. Whether you are looking at a line graph or candlesticks, the Forex trading chart is giving you a wealth of information. First, you can check the support and resistance. These are the points where it seems that the currency pair won’t cross. Is there a certain range in which the currency is moving? When you see a price making sudden movements in that range you can use the support and resistance to predict when it is going to change its direction again.

Trend lines can be used when there is a definitive pattern that you can follow. You can chart the trend line if it is moving in one direction to predict where the price is going to go using indicators.

For example, let’s say you are studying a candlestick chart -which you should as they give you more indicators in one convenient place. This type of chart can help you to find trends that indicate a major reversal is about to take place. One indicator you can look for is what traders refer to as “three white soldiers” which indicate a bullish reversal is pending. Continue reading "Understanding the Basics of Technical Analysis" →

Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Gary Tanashian of Biiwii.com

NFTRH 322 covered the usual range of markets, from US to global stocks to precious metals and commodities to currencies and indicators.  It also included an extended economic discussion about the realities of the strong US economy and its dangerous underpinnings.

The economic segment began with this look at the Semiconductor Equipment sector, which was our first indicator on economic strength exactly 2 years ago and will be an initial indicator on economic deceleration when the time is right.

Excerpted from the December 21 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 322:

Checking the Semiconductor Book-to-Bill ratio (b2b), this all-important forward looker came in pretty decent for November.  Per the data we reviewed in an update last week, the bookings, which is the most important component, was pretty good at $1.22 Billion compared to October’s $1.1 Billion.

The graph from SEMI does not include the November data.  I added an arrow showing the current level of the b2b.

semi.b2b

Our original graph is marked up as well to show the longer trend.  There is a spike up happening and this may or may not be related to an overall year-end sales spike in some high end capital equipment that happens like clockwork at the end of each year in Machine Tools (ref. sales graph below).  I do not have the level of knowledge about the Semiconductor Equipment industry to speak authoritatively about its more structural capital spending cycles.  So this is just a possibility to consider. Continue reading "Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday in New York at 1,222 currently trading at 1,196 continuing its long-term bearish trend as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as volatility is too high and the price remains extremely choppy as we head into the new year. Gold prices rallied as high as 1,240 last week before settling back despite the fact that the stock market had a wild ride but the interest still is in the S&P 500 which looks like it’s going to close right near another record high today. The problem with the gold market is the ETF market in gold might be sold come year end for tax purposes and when that happens the ETF than has to sell the futures contract so I still think lower prices are ahead but this market is difficult to trade at the current time so move on and find a market that is trending strong in one direction. The U.S dollar hit another multiyear high which is generally pessimistic commodity prices and especially precious metals prices, however with turmoil in Russia gold prices have been extremely volatile with many $30/$40 price ranges on any given day so if you do trade this market make sure you place the proper amount contracts limiting risk to 2% of your account balance as I have to admit it’s fun to watch but I remain on the sidelines until a true breakout occurs. Rumors of Russia having to sell some of their gold reserves sent gold prices down nearly down $30 in Wednesday’s trade however that rumor has not been verified at the current time but with the problems in Russia it would not surprise me about anything.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →