The Middle Third

By: Bill Poulos of Profits Run

Today, I'm going to share one of the best 'mind shifts' I've ever discovered when it comes to trading the markets.

Now, let’s look at going after profits in the middle one-third of a trend. So take a look at this chart where I’ve zoomed in on a nice uptrend.

Now here’s what most people think you have to do to create wealth trading the markets. They think you have to buy at the very bottom of a trend as seen here, and then sell at the very top. Anything less than that is perceived as a failure.

Well, one of the greatest traders of the 20th Century, Bernard Baruch, who was a multi-millionaire and who also went on to become a presidential advisor, had this to say about trying to capture the entire trend. He said:

"Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done, except by liars. I can’t help making money. I just wait for the market to bottom. Then I buy on the way up, and then I sell before the top. I'm satisfied with the middle one-third of the move."

Now this is a very, very profound concept, and I want to emphasize this again. Baruch said, "I just wait for the market to bottom, and buy on the way up. Then I sell before the top. I’m satisfied with the middle one-third of the move."

That’s the secret: the middle one-third. If that doesn’t make sense to you, here’s another way to look at it. Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds are all masters of the middle one-third. They understood that all you need to do to hit the most homeruns, over time, is to hit the ball one out of every three times you step up to the plate.

What do you think would have happened if Babe Ruth had given up early in his career because he didn’t hit the ball 100% of the time? Of course, we wouldn’t be talking about him right now.

Just like Bernard Baruch and just like many of the rich, all three of these homerun kings were satisfied with the middle one-third. So let's look at what Baruch was talking about in a little more detail, so you can implement this concept yourself.

This is the same chart we just saw, but applying Baruch’s philosophy to it. This is what the middle one-third looks like. Now, you might be thinking: "Well, what about the rest of the move? I'd be paying too much if I miss the bottom or I'd be selling too low if I miss the top."

Well, that’s how the middle class thinks. They think you need to capture it all, but some of the wealthiest people on the planet, like Baruch, figured out long ago that the middle one-third of a trend is much easier to take advantage of.

All you need to do is wait for a trend to develop, hop on board, and then sell before it ends. Now, in practice, what we actually end up doing is selling a few days after a trend peaks, and that’s why the sell arrow points to the spot on the other side of the trend.

Do you see how that works? It's easy and it's what the rich do every day to keep and grow their wealth.

This is just one of 4 steps to achieving market mastery that I teach on my new training website for free. To learn the other 3, click here...

Weekly Futures Recap w/Mike Seery

We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Soybean Futures-- Soybean futures had a wild trading week ending lower by $.13 this Friday at 13.83 but having a very bullish USDA crop report despite the fact that we are going to have the 4th largest crop in U.S history, but the carryover level dropped from 220 bushels all way down to 150 million bushels which now means the carryover in soybeans is tight again which should keep prices high for quite some time. We thought the carryover number was going to be 295 million bushels earlier in the summer and that’s how much this figure has dropped and if you go into the next report with possibly an even lower crop than 3.14 billion bushels and a carryover of 100 million prices could really move to the upside in my opinion. The grain complex in general is still in a bearish trend except for soybeans as the spread price between corn and soybeans is right near record levels as there is still huge demand for soybeans and I wonder what the next crop report is going to say as this was a disappointing crop year in my opinion. This year’s crop is only 3% higher than last year’s drought stricken crop which is amazing in my opinion but we just had too many bad things happen this year with cool & wet weather and then hot & dry with a very sporadic weather pattern causing the poor crop this year as now we start to enter Brazil’s planting season which is expected to be another record crop. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap w/Mike Seery"

A word of thanks to all our visitors this past week

Just a quick word of thanks to all who voted in our polls and left comments this past week on our blog.

We had a record number of comments and votes on our blog for:

Is Putin now dictating American diplomacy in the Middle East?

It is still not too late to voice your opinion and vote. We will do our very best to respond to any comments you leave.

We also received some pretty interesting comments on a newspaper clipping titled: A Short Guide To The Middle East

Latest poll: Trading superstitions - Do you have any?

We are off to a rip roaring start with this poll. One trader I knew, back when I was trading in the pits of Chicago, was so superstitious that he didn't change his clothes, shower, or shave when he got on a hot streak. That's why we all gave him a pretty wide berth in the pits after the first few days of his hot streak. It is crazy but true.

Do you have a superstition you practice in your trading, or are you not superstitious? Either way, join the vote and share one of your favorite trading stories.

Did you miss my Mystery Stock of the Week? You can find it right here, the reveal might just surprise you.

Lastly, did you manage to catch my tutorial titled: Learn How To Trade Netflix In 90 Seconds?

Have a great weekend everyone,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

Chart to Watch - October Sugar

We've asked our friend Jim Robinson of profittrading.com to provide his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be analyzing a different chart using the Trade Triangles and his experience.

Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of the October Sugar (NYBOT_SB.V13.E).

I hope you are having a GREAT week !

This week we will take a look at October Sugar futures.

When trading futures with the MarketClub system we use the weekly Trade Triangles to tell trend and the daily Trade Triangles for timing.

Sugar has put in a daily (not shown on this chart) and weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle, which means the MarketClub system is long Sugar right now. Continue reading "Chart to Watch - October Sugar"

Trading superstitions - Do you have any?

With today being Friday the 13th, I thought it would be fun to see to if our readers had any trading superstitions. I've heard of all kinds superstitions over the years such as, never trade in the first 30 minutes, never set stop-losses on round numbers, don't triple dip a stock, and never sell a stock crossing past $90. And then we have mine, I never buy a stock on Friday or at the open on Monday. In every attempt, I've ended up on the wrong end of a trade. Maybe I just have bad luck!

I would like to know...

Do you have any trading superstitions?

View Results

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Take a second to vote, then leave a comment with your trading superstition or any superstition that you may have. I bet we have some good ones out there.

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com