Weekend Update: 5/21/11

I just finished your weekend update. Watch now to analyze the trends from the week!

Click here to view MarketClub’s full Livestream library

We hope you enjoy the weekend update, and that you leave your thoughts in our comment section. See you Monday (5/23/11) at 1pm ET!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

4 Ways Options Are Better than Stocks

Just why are options so great in the first place? If you're still on the fence about trying your hand at options, this is a must-read article provided by Elizabeth Harrow of Schaeffer's Investment Research. If you enjoy this article and want to learn more about options you may even want to check out their options newsletter!

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Options are cheaper than stocks.

In this economy, everybody's trying to save money. So, forgive me for pandering, but it's a fact that options are significantly less expensive than the securities on which they're based. Each option contract gives you control of 100 shares of equity, yet the cost to purchase an option contract is nowhere near the expense of buying an equivalent chunk of stock.

Premium: The price of an option contract that the buyer of the option pays to the option seller for the rights conveyed by the option contract.

When you purchase an option contract, you pay a premium to enter the trade. This premium is known as the ask price, if you're buying to open, and it's determined in the traditional manner by supply and demand.

By way of example, let's take a look at options on imaginary retailer You-Can't-Afford-It Stores Inc. (POSH). Let's say POSH closed yesterday at $46.39. It would cost you $4,639 to purchase 100 shares. By comparison, POSH's May 47.50 call closed yesterday at $1.83. (Hey, it's my imaginary case study: I get to pick the numbers.) In other words, it would cost you just $183 to purchase this call option granting you control of 100 shares of POSH.

As fair warning, I'm not a math expert, but I'm pretty sure you could save about $4,456 by purchasing the call option rather than investing in the shares outright.

Maximize your profits through the amazing power of leverage.

In addition to being cheaper than stocks, options also provide you with the magic of leverage. This nifty feature allows you to collect profits that are, in the best-case scenario, way out of proportion to your initial investment.

Leverage: The control of a larger number of shares with a smaller amount of capital. Leverage provides an option buyer greater profit potential using fewer dollars compared to holding a long or short stock position.

Sticking with our POSH example from above, let's say that Jill Trader purchased 100 shares at $46.39 for a total cash outlay of $4,639. Meanwhile, Susie Speculator bought to open 1 May $47.50 call for a total outlay of $183 ($1.83 x 100 shares per contract).

OK, bear with me, because we're going to have to use our imaginations for this next bit. Let's pretend that POSH rallies up to $55 per share by May expiration. Jill Trader unloads her 100 shares for $5,500, content in the knowledge that she's netted a profit of $861 (which translates to 18.6% of her initial investment).

Meanwhile, Susie Speculator sells to close her option contract, which is now worth $750. Susie's profit is $567, or 322.7% of her initial investment. Not only did Susie invest less capital than Jill, she more than tripled her trading dollars. Not too shabby, right?

And, if you can believe it, there are even more reasons why options are inherently superior to stocks…

Downside risk is limited in many option strategies.

At the risk of beating a dead horse, let's reverse our earlier scenario. Pretend that POSH shares plunge during the next 6 weeks, and by the time May-dated options expire, they're wallowing at $33 per share.

When you buy to open an option that expires worthless, your loss on the trade is limited to your initial cash outlay.

Our hypothetical investors have a very different reaction to the stock's slide. Jill Trader is panicking, because she's already lost $1,339 on paper, and the decline doesn't show any signs of slowing. She's faced with the choice of swallowing a big loss, or waiting it out and hoping the shares turns around.

Elsewhere, Susie's disappointed, but not devastated. She simply allows her out-of-the-money call to expire worthless, which means that her total loss on the trade amounts to no more than her initial investment of $183. It's not her best trading result ever, but it's definitely a more palatable outcome than Jill's.

Feel free to stop caring about price/earnings ratios.

At this point, I'm going to stop throwing math problems at you. Frankly, I find it exhausting, and I'm quite sure my endlessly patient colleague, Jocelynn Drake, is tired of checking my numbers. However, we will be discussing a few specific figures, namely: price/earnings ratio, price/book ratio, price/sales ratio… the list goes on.

Now, if you're used to investing in stocks, you're no doubt accustomed to researching the aforementioned ratios. These metrics offer clues as to whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued at current levels, and many traders will analyze these fundamentals before entering a position.

For all the reasons mentioned above(plus a few more), you have my full permission to throw these fundamentals out the window(well, mostly) when trading options. The fact is, these metrics simply don't matter as much to an option trader as they do to a buy-and-hold stock investor.

Let me explain. Thanks to your lowered initial investment, as well as the magic of leverage, you have a simple goal when you buy a call option. You want the share price to rise above the strike price prior to expiration, allowing you to collect your profit and exit the trade.

So, since you're not investing in the company for the long run, the traditional trading metrics shouldn't have much bearing on your analysis. So what if POSH's price/earnings ratio of 19 is higher than the average for its peer group? Even if the shares are expensive now, you can still reap a profit as long as they're more expensive by the time your option expires.

Instead, since we want the stock's price to make a fast, aggressive move in the right direction, we favor the Expectational Analysis method. By combining technical analysis with sentiment analysis, you can pinpoint equities that are poised to rally...or plunge, if you're playing puts.

Of course, fundamentals do play a part. If you're buying options ahead of earnings, you should be aware that premiums might be inflated by rising implied volatility. Or, if the pharmaceutical firm that you're buying calls on is due to release trial data within the next week, you should definitely have that event on your radar, too.

But, beyond the basics, you can really stop sweating the fundamentals. If you love crunching the numbers, though, don't worry. With put/call volume ratios, put/call open interest ratios, and more, there are still plenty of metrics for an option trader to play with.

Click here for 6 months free of Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor and A Crash Course in Top Gun Trading Techniques.

Best of luck to you with your options trading,
Schaeffer's Investment Research Team

Your 1PM Update and the "52-week new highs on Friday rule"

Hello, Adam Hewison here for MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Friday the 20th of May.

Watch what's happening right now ...

As of noon today there were only two stocks we are looking at in regards to the 52-week high rule. The first was on the NYSE and it is Sprint Nextel Symbol S. The next stock was on the NASDAQ and that is Amarin Symbol AMRN. In order to qualify for the 52 week rule the stocks have to close at or close to their highs for the day. If the market closes around its midpoint it does not qualify.

Now for the 52 week short rule; we have five stocks in this category as of noon (ET) today. This of course can change before the closing bell at four o’clock (ET). Here are the stocks we’re looking at: SVNT,NBG,OMX, RDN and PMI.

These are all below $10 and should provide a nice % gain if they follow through on Monday.

Be sure to watch all of these markets at or near the close.

Here are the three rules you need to trade "The 52-week new highs on Friday rule." These are the exact rules that Bill used to make millions!

  1. On a new 52-week high, when the market closes at or close to its high on a Friday, buy long and go home long for the weekend.
  2. Exit the long position on the opening of the following Tuesday.
  3. If the market opens sharply lower on Monday, exit the position immediately.

There you have it. These are the only three rules you need to trade with "The 52-week new highs on a Friday rule" successfully.

"The 52-week new highs on a Friday rule" works extremely well in futures and in the Forex markets. This rule can be reversed for "The 52-week new lows on a Friday rule" if you are so inclined to trade the short side of the market. The same rules apply.

Now it's business as usual:

SP500: -55. Long term uptrend remains intact. Trading Range Neutral - Resistance at 1360

Silver: Score +55. possible bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.Major resistance at $39.50.Support at $32.00.

Gold: Score +80. Longer term trend remains positive. Support at $1.475 and$1,462.50. Resistance at $1,526.Buy signal today at $1,499.83

Crude Oil: +70 Trading range. Long term indicator remains positive. Resistance at 100.80 basis June.Choppy market.

The Dollar Index: Score +55. In a trading range with the longer term outlook remaining negative. Minor resistance at 76.00 and major resistance remains at 77.50. Minor support at 74.00

The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: Score -55. Near-term resistance at 348.50. Support at 333.50. Bullish divergence on the Williams %R indicator.

Get a more in depth presentation HERE!

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub

MarketClub TV 5/19/11

Did you miss last night's live episode of MarketClub TV? No problem. Watch it now!

Last night we welcomed Adam back to discuss some of the big moves that took place while he was gone. Get updates on all of the hot markets, and find out who the largest commodity firm is.

We would like to congratulate Michael P. from Las Vegas, Nevada on being selected for a one year FREE membership to MarketClub. Find out how you can enter to win in last night's episode!

Click here to view MarketClub’s full Livestream library

We hope you enjoy last night's episode, and that you leave your thoughts in our comment section. See you next Thursday (5/26/11) at 7pm ET!

Best,
The MarketClub Team

POLL: LinkedIn...Could-a, Would-a, Should-a?

Wait a minute...is it 2011 or 1999? LinkedIn's (LNKD) IPO was originally priced at $45. However, it opened at $83 yesterday morning and was at $90 in no time (where it remained for most of the morning). It sky rocketed to $120 later on, and then dipped to a closing of nearly $95!

At $90 per share, LinkedIn would be valued at $8.5 billion...one of the largest tech IPOs since Google (GOOG) in 2004. If you were to factor those numbers in for your calculations, LinkedIn is trading at nearly 570 times last year's earnings! This adds some controversy over the worthiness of its current price tag considering that LinkedIn valued itself at a mere $2.32 a share in the spring of 2009.

Which brings us to the question:

Do you think that LinkedIn is worth it's hype?

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