Post-Pandemic Gains Negated - Don't Be Remiss

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Relentless Selling

For many individual stocks, the post-pandemic gains have not only been negated, but share prices are now lower than pre-pandemic highs. The accommodative monetary policies, Covid related stimulus, asset purchases, and market liquidity are coming to an end. Now, raging inflation, impending interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve tapering, omicron ebb and flow, continued supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical issues have culminated into the current market swoon. The latest market weakness has been persistent over the past few months while being exacerbated in January and February to start 2022. A third of the Nasdaq 100 stocks are off at least 30% from their highs; half of the S&P 500 has fallen 15% or more while the median biotech stock has sold off by 60%. Taking a look at a composite of high-flying growth stocks using the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) as a proxy, this cohort is down 60% as well.

The recent multi-month sell-off from November 2021 through mid-February was met with heavy and vicious selling. Valuations have been decimated overall, and cold water has been thrown on investor enthusiasm, especially in the more speculative stocks in cloud software, SPACs, and recent IPOs. The tremendous selling volume has inflicted damage across the board, with whole swaths of the market auto-correlating into a downward spiral. Now many opportunities are presenting themselves as valuations have been greatly reduced. Being too bearish may prove ill-advised over the long term as we're witnessing the 2020 Covid-induced sell-off unfold all over once again. Portfolio balance is key in any environment and deploying the cash portion of one's portfolio during periods of moderating valuations is exactly where this cash can be advantageous. Cash can be used opportunistically for snapping up heavily discounted stocks of high-quality companies during periods of indiscriminate and heavy selling. Continue reading "Post-Pandemic Gains Negated - Don't Be Remiss" →

Is This A Warning Sign For The Market?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

A couple of weeks ago, I said that "nothing good happens below the 200-Day MA" and that statement seems to hold up well, especially when it comes to the NASDAQ. However, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ may be sounding the alarm for a bigger move lower for the stock market as the 50-day MA is about to cross below the 200-day MA, and we all know what that means. That's right, a "Death Cross"!

If you're new to trading, technical trading, or just need a refresher. The death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major sell-off. The death cross appears on a chart when a stock's short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. While it doesn't always hold true, it could be an early indicator of further pain ahead.

The DOW shed 232.85 points, or -0.768%, at 34,079.18. The S&P 500 lost -0.72% to close at 4,348.87, and the NASDAQ retreated -1.23% to end the day at 13,548.07. Continue reading "Is This A Warning Sign For The Market?" →

Gold, Should You Own It In 2022

Posted on by Matt Thalman

As we continue to roll into the new year and the market volatility appears only to be strengthening by the day, you may be wondering if gold is worth investing in during these turbulent times.

Well, the real question maybe is why are the markets so turbulent today? There are a few reasons, of course, but the big reason is because of the coming higher interest rates and deleveraging of the Federal Reserves balance sheet. But, the why behind the higher interest rates is what's very appealing to some gold investors today; high inflation.

Gold has forever been the hedge against high inflation. The thinking is that the dollar losses value as inflation goes higher, but it will continue to keep up with inflation, and historically it has pretty well. So, the Fed is currently talking about raising interest rates in the coming month in an attempt to slow inflation but not derail the economic recovery due to the negative effects caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

So, we know that gold is good when there is high inflation, but do we know if it's good when interest rates are rising? Continue reading "Gold, Should You Own It In 2022" →

Lessons From BTC Price Action

Posted on by Wayne Burritt

If you hang around the markets long enough, you learn a couple of lessons about how they behave really fast. And this holds for BTC:

    1. The first lesson is that things work out like you thought they would.
    2. The second lesson is that things don't work out like you thought they would.
    3. And the third lesson is that things work out like you thought they would, but not when you thought they would.

So, when I took a look at what was happening from a technical standpoint to Bitcoin (BTC) over the past couple of weeks, I have to admit that lesson 3 was in full swing.

Here's what I mean. Continue reading "Lessons From BTC Price Action" →

Can A Dove Change Its Spots?

Posted on by George Yacik

Thankfully, there is at least one area of U.S. society where people are still allowed to disagree, and that's on Wall Street, where there is a clear difference of opinion on what we can expect the Fed to do this year regarding raising interest rates to fight inflation. What's surprising is how widely divergent they are.

Let's start with the most aggressive, or hawkish, prediction. That belongs to Bank of America.

"Following the continued hawkish pivot at the January FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to start tightening at the March 2022 meeting, raising rates by 25 basis points at every remaining meeting this year for a total of seven hikes, and in every quarter of 2023 for a total of four hikes," BofA economists said. That would put the fed funds target rate at a range of 1.75% to 2% by the end of this year and 2.75% to 3.00% by the end of next year when the bank expects the rate-raising cycle to end.

"The Fed has all but admitted that it is seriously behind the curve," the BofA research note added. "When you are behind in a race, you don't take water breaks," it said, explaining its aggressive forecast. Continue reading "Can A Dove Change Its Spots?" →