Stock Market Stumbles Into The Finish

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market is stumbling into the finish of the week ending a five-day win streak. But overall it will finish up for the week making this the third straight week of positive gains. Reason for the weakness today, China and the government shutdown that doesn't seem to be ending anytime soon.

All three major indexes are ending the week with positive gains. Both the S&P 500 and DOW are posting gains of about +2% for the week, but both indexes are still waiting for the green weekly Trade Triangle to appear signaling a move to the sidelines. The NASDAQ did issue a green weekly Trade Triangle this week and will end the week with an impressive +3% gain.

stock market stumbles

The U.S. Dollar continues to be under pressure dropping -.64% on the week making this the fourth straight week of declines.

Crude oil has had another monster week posting a +7% gain for the second week in a row. However, much like the overall stock market, it is down about 1% on the day. This drop comes after nine straight days of gains and is most likely just some profit taking by traders. Continue reading "Stock Market Stumbles Into The Finish" →

3 Reasons Why You Should Still Avoid MJ, The Marijuana ETF

Posted on by Matt Thalman

2018 was a tough year for long-term buy and hold marijuana investors. As a whole, the industry went on quite a wild roller-coaster ride. Marijuana stocks popped in December 2017 as anticipation for the ‘legalization’ of the drug occurred in the state of California on January 1st, 2018. We saw stock prices and the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) jump as investors anticipated a ‘boom’ for the industry.

But, within a month or so of the legalization date, most of the marijuana-related stocks have fallen in price and MJ was trading below its December 2017 price. A few months went by, and most of the industries stocks just meandered along. Then the next big ‘legalization’ date grew near, October 17th, 2018, the day marijuana became legal in Canada.

The price of most of the well known and many of the lesser-known marijuana stocks, and MJ of course, once again began to ski-rocket. MJ, for example, went from $24 per share in August 2018, to as high as $45 per share, with its peak occurring just days before October 17.

Each time a new State or large country legalizes the drug, the companies in the industry experience an unfound increase in their valuation as investors buy shares at an insanely high rate. This type irrational buying leading up to a hyped up, essentially arbitrary date has put a lot of investors in a really bad place in 2018. MJ for one is down more than 24% in 2018, while other individual marijuana companies have seen their stock prices fall even further. Continue reading "3 Reasons Why You Should Still Avoid MJ, The Marijuana ETF" →

Amigos 1 & 2 Arrive, #3 Is Still Out There

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The 3 Amigos were a blogger’s way of not boring himself to death while fleshing out important macro indicators month after month.

Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) got home and dropped from target. What’s more, it has taken back the ratio’s equivalent of the entire Trump rally and that is an eventuality we are very open to on nominal SPX as well.

The gaps are interesting and among several possibilities for 2019 we could see fear, loathing and a fill of the lower gap (a greed gap of sorts) prior to a filling of the upper gap, which could blow out the stock bull in manic fashion one day. Relax, it’s just one of several possible roadmaps. For now, we simply state that SPX/Gold reached a very viable target and dutifully dropped with the market stress.

Yield

Amigo #2 (30yr Treasury yield AKA the Continuum) got the bond bears on the wrong side of the boat and kept them there for a couple of months before the big reversal (back below the monthly EMA 100) that came along with the risk ‘off’ rush amid Q4 2018’s market stress. Continue reading "Amigos 1 & 2 Arrive, #3 Is Still Out There" →

Stocks Up For The Fourth Day

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks are on the rise for the fourth straight day which is mostly due to signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks which has given the market optimism. Officials from the United States and China ended their talks in Beijing that lasted longer than expected and officials said details will be released soon, raising hopes that an all-out trade could be averted.

Hopes of a trade deal between the world's two largest economies, strong U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on interest rates have helped lift the S&P 500 9.7% from the 20-month low it hit around Christmas, but we're still waiting on a green weekly Trade Triangle which would indicate a move to a sidelines position. The NASDAQ just issued a new green weekly Trade Triangle moving to a sidelines position. The DOW is currently about 54 pts away from issuing a green weekly Trade Triangle, will we see that today?

green weekly trade triangle

Crude oil is up for the eighth session issuing a new green weekly Trade Triangle today at $51.78 indicating that a short-term long position is in order. Traders shrugged off bearish data on U.S. stockpiles focusing on OPEC production cuts and U.S.-China trade talks. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih on Wednesday reaffirmed that production will fall to 10.2 million barrels per day this month, down from an all-time high 11.1 million bpd in November. Saudi Arabia will export 7.2 million bpd in January and 7.1 million bpd in February, according to Falih. Continue reading "Stocks Up For The Fourth Day" →

U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that October crude production averaged 11.560 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 79,000 b/d from September. This was a slowdown in growth from the spectacular numbers recorded in July and August.

Crude Production

However, the year-over-year gain was still a very impressive 1.850 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For October, that additional gains is about 600,000 b/d.

Crude Production

The gain was led by a 33,000 b/d increase in New Mexico, a 31,000 b/d rise in North Dakota and a gain of 22,000 b/d in Colorado. Weather factors affected the overall gain, as production fell by another 29,000 b/d in the U.S. Gulf. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October" →