Sorry, Virginia, There Is No Santa Claus

So who looks more right now, President Trump or Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell? Based on the market’s reaction to last week’s Fed rate increase, we’d have to say it isn’t Powell.

That doesn’t mean he isn’t right, at least looking at the situation objectively and what Powell is supposed to be doing as Fed chair. While it’s certainly arguable that the Fed does need to take a pause from raising interest rates for a few months to fully digest the recent economic data, which is showing the economy slowing some – but nowhere near a recession – it is right to continue tightening, no matter how unpalatable that is to the market.

Quite frankly, most of the calls for the Fed to refrain from raising interest rates are blatantly self-serving. Of course, investors don’t want the Fed to ever tighten policy, because, as we’ve seen, higher rates mean lower stock prices. Not many people like that, especially when it’s been ingrained in them over the past 10 years that stock prices only go one way – up – and that “buying the dips” is a no-lose strategy to make up for past losses.

Welcome to reality, folks. Continue reading "Sorry, Virginia, There Is No Santa Claus"

Merry Christmas From INO.com

With all the hustle and bustle, it's sometimes difficult to remember the real reason for the season. But regardless of what you believe and what religion you practice, if any, we hope you find yourself surrounded by love. The INO.com staff is very appreciative of your interest and we love having you return to our blog time and time again.

As you share a meal or a gift, please reflect on all you have despite the many things you hope that 2019 will bring. Merry Christmas to you and we are excited to help you build your financial goals and trading confidence.

If you don't celebrate Christmas, please accept our most genuine wishes for any happy holiday and a prosperous new year!

Best,
The INO.com Team


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GE's Recent Dividend Cut Highlights The Problem With Dividend Investing

General Electric (GE) has been paying a dividend to shareholders for 119 consecutive years. But if you look at the history of GE’s dividend, it regularly has been cut. Most recently, just at the end of October, the company lowered its $0.12 per share quarterly dividend down to $0.01 per share quarterly dividend. It should also be noted that its dividend was only at $0.12 per share after the company cut it from $0.24 per share per quarter in November of 2017.

GE’s move to slash its dividend down to the mere bone is just another reminder of the massive downside risks associated with investing in dividend-paying stocks. You see because when GE cut its dividend from $0.24 per share per quarter down to $0.12 per share per quarter, the stock dropped more than 7% from where it was the previous day. The same decline occurred this past October when the dividend was cut from $0.12 down to $0.01; the stock fell 8.7%. Furthermore, since the day prior to the announcement of the first dividend cut, GE stock is down an astonishing 63%.

But just because GE cut its dividend and its stock price has fallen off a cliff doesn’t necessarily mean all dividend-paying stocks are extremely risky. Or more so, that there is no way to lessen the risk associated with dividend-paying stocks. Continue reading "GE's Recent Dividend Cut Highlights The Problem With Dividend Investing"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading at 1,261 after settling last Friday at 1,241 in New York hitting a 5 ½ month high continuing its bullish momentum. The stock market has utterly collapsed this week as money flows are continuing to exit and I do believe new money will start to enter into the gold market. However, I'm surprised that gold prices have not reacted more bullish to the recent sell-off in equities. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 1,252 level and if you took that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,236 as the chart structure is solid due to the fact of the extremely low volatility which is very surprising as craziness is upon us. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly this trend is to the upside as I also have a bullish silver recommendation. There is absolute panic as I think the volatility in gold will expand tremendously to the upside in the coming weeks and months ahead so continue to stay long as I see no reason to be short.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Visa: The Valuation Conundrum In A Frothy Market - Part Two

I wrote a piece back in July “Visa: The Valuation Conundrum In A Frothy Market” putting forth my belief that Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) did not possess the growth characteristics to justify its valuation and its appreciation was largely a function of its Visa Europe acquisition and the overall bull market. This bull market was rewarding stocks with sky-high valuations particularly in the technology sector which has recently fallen out of favor. The recent market wide sell-off in equities during the fourth quarter has erased all gains for the broader S&P 500 index and many individual stocks. Despite this market wide sell-off, Visa has delivered great returns in 2018, appreciating 23% and currently sits at $137 per share against a 52-week high of $151. Visa faces emerging threats in the digital payments space, blockchain technology and maturing markets in the traditional payments space leading to slower growth prospects. I’ve been reluctant to get behind the stock of Visa considering its valuation, slowing growth and trends away from the traditional credit card space among the younger demographics that embrace PayPal (PYPL) and PayPal’s Venmo for payment options and exchanging payments between multiple parties. There’s also Zelle that is now powering transfers to and from bank accounts, adding to the digital evolution in the payments space. Amazon (AMZN) may be disrupting the credit card transaction space with its potential launch of Amazon financial services and Amazon Pay. I feel that shareholders have become overly enthusiastic about Visa’s growth prospects. The stock has appreciated over 20% this year, boasts a P/E of over 30 and a PEG of over 1.7 in the midst of a frothy market that has only recently sold off. This scenario doesn’t provide a great benefit-reward profile at these levels in my opinion unless the market wide pull back brings Visa more in-line with its growth profile.

Visa Fiscal Q4 Earnings and Valuation Paradox

Visa reported its fiscal Q4 earnings that beat on EPS by $0.01 (EPS of $1.21) and missed on revenue estimates by $10 million (revenue of $5.43 billion) which grew by 11.7% year-over-year. Visa also provided guidance for its fiscal 2019, “annual net revenue growth: Low double-digits on a nominal basis, with approximately one percentage point of negative foreign currency impact.”

I feel Visa’s stock price is still misaligned with its overall revenue growth prospects with an unjustified P/E and PEG ratio that remains higher than the majority of large-cap growth stocks that have a greater growth profile. Visa’s management has forecasted continued revenue growth in the low double digits with EPS growth in the mid-teens, artificially high due to share buybacks. This forward-looking revenue growth rate is a shape divergence from the post-Europe Visa acquisition revenue growth numbers. Visa’s growth rate is slowing from these artificially high post Visa numbers thus misaligned with its growth profile. Continue reading "Visa: The Valuation Conundrum In A Frothy Market - Part Two"