Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Elliott Wave International

If financial market speculation were easy, then everyone would be well off -- and the legendary investor Warren Buffett would be just a nice rich guy from Omaha with really cool glasses.

The reality is, successfully navigating the near- and long-term trends is exceptionally difficult. Gains can be big, but losses can often be even bigger.

Technical analysis offers you an all-you-can-watch buffet of indicators to help reduce your risk and optimize rewards. You may already be using moving averages or momentum indicators, for example -- and you know how helpful they can be at anticipating trend changes.

Well, let us introduce you to another excellent tool: trendlines.

For the past 15 years, Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has been using trendlines to identify high-probability trade set-ups in close to 20 markets he regularly follows.

You might be familiar with one of those markets, cocoa. In his May 2014 Monthly Commodity Junctures, Jeffrey showed subscribers how to apply trendlines to this volatile market: Continue reading "Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1" →

Miners' Cost Cutting Set to Deliver in Late 2014

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The Gold Report: The gold price can't seem to climb back above $1,300/ounce ($1,300/oz) despite several geopolitical hotspots making headlines. What's underpinning the price weakness?

Raj Ray: The issue is that despite the geopolitical backdrop, the fundamentals still appear weak. The big drivers demand from India and China and gold exchange-traded fund shave been more or less flat year-over-year. China is still digesting the gold it purchased last year. And, although price premiums have declined in India following the recent Bank of India's move to permit trading houses to import gold again, further relaxation of the import tariffs is not forthcoming. If not for geopolitical conflicts providing support, gold could have moved much lower than $1,300/oz. I don't see a big driver to push gold higher over the next six to eight months.

TGR: India has imposed high tariffs on gold imports and those have resulted in a marked increase in gold smuggling. How is that influencing the gold prices?

"The first time two royalty companies came together to bid for a single project was with True Gold Mining Inc.'s Karma."

RR: I don't think there has been a marked impact on gold prices in India due to smuggling. The World Gold Council says about 250 tons of gold are smuggled into India each year. If you add that to the official gold imports of roughly 800850 tons, you still have a shortfall of around 200300 tons based on average annual imports. What might be something to look out for heading into the wedding season is the rainfall and its impact on food production. Rural India accounts for 6070% of India's gold demand. The rainfall outlook has improved slightly, but a rainfall shortage could make the government reluctant to reduce the import duties anytime soon. It would also mean that people have less money to spend on gold.

TGR: You said China is still digesting its 2013 gold hoard. How long before China is consuming gold as it did in 2013? Continue reading "Miners' Cost Cutting Set to Deliver in Late 2014" →

Apple, Nudes, iCloud, iPhone 6, iWatch and much more

Posted on by The INO.com Team

It has been quite a week for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) with the news that its iCloud storage system had been hacked, and stolen photographs of nude celebrities starting popping up everywhere on the web.

Apple did issue a statement saying that certain celebrity iCloud accounts were compromised, but notes, "None of the cases we have investigated has resulted from any breach in any of Apple systems including iCloud's find my phone feature. We are continuing to work with law enforcement to help identify the criminals involved."

What that indicates to me is the fact that the hackers were looking for specific names and photographs that they could use as currency. I heard today that some photographs from the paparazzi can sell upwards of $50,000 or $100,000 so they are valuable to certain entities and enterprises.

It All Happens Next Week

Continue reading "Apple, Nudes, iCloud, iPhone 6, iWatch and much more" →

The Most Important Stock To Watch This Month Is...

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By: John Kosar of Street Authority

All major U.S. indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive week, this time led by the small-cap Russell 2000, which was up 1.2%. Year to date, however, the Russell has by far been the weakest, up just 0.9%. This puts the burden for continued broad market leadership squarely on the other traditional market leader -- technology.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has been up to the challenge so far, posting a 13.7% gain year to date, and is a major reason why the SP 500 is up 8.4% in 2014. But with small caps already weak, if and when technology stocks stop leading, the overall market is likely to run into some serious problems.

My own metric, which is based on ETF asset flows, shows that the largest inflow of sector-related investor assets last week was into defensive utilities and out of industrials. Accordingly, last week's strongest sector was utilities, up 2%, with industrials the only sector to finish the week in negative territory.

Be Aware Of September Seasonal Weakness

As we move into September, a good place to begin this week's report is with monthly seasonality. The chart shows that September is the seasonally weakest month of the year in the SP 500 since 1957. On average, it closed 0.68% lower for the month and posted a negative monthly close 54% of the time.

This is one of several good reasons to pay particularly close attention to your stock market investments this month, and to have a defensive plan already in place in case this 56-year seasonal pattern emerges again this year.

We should also note the historical tendency for a strong fourth-quarter rebound, so even if the market does correct this month, we should be looking for near-term weakness to potentially provide better intermediate-term buying opportunities. Continue reading "The Most Important Stock To Watch This Month Is..." →

Dollar General Is Going To Have To Pay A Lot More For Family Dollar

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This morning I woke up to see that Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) has raised its bid again to $80 a share or $9.1 billion to buy Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO). I don't think that Dollar General's bid is enough therefore I don't think Dollar General is going to be able to pick this stock up for just $80 a share.

In today's video, I'll show you how MarketClub's Trade Triangles nailed both of these stocks and how they got this trade right. I will also show you why I think Dollar General is going to have to up its bid – big time if it wants to acquire Family Dollar Stores. Last week, Dollar General said it remained committed to making this acquisition, however Dollar General's earnings and same-store sales fell short of market expectations. What does this mean? Is Dollar General reaching out for Family Dollar Stores now while its stock is still relatively high? I think so.

As I said earlier, I believe Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) is going to have to pay a lot more if it wants to acquire Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE:FDO). I will share with you the exact number I think that Dollar General is going to have to pay for Family Dollar stores if it wants to acquire that business.

I have a feeling this is going to be an interesting week so stay tuned.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub