Last February I called for a long position in Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) amid temporary weakness within a consolidation phase. Later on in March when the expected weakness reached support I posted an alert for you to catch the opportunity and set the target area with a $19.78-26.30 range. At the start of this month, the initial target at the $19.78 level was hit, producing a 55% profit for the year. My congratulations are to all who took the longs!
I also mentioned Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE:SCCO) for those who prefer larger market cap companies. That trade produced a good profit of almost 39% in the same period. However, it doesn’t compare to the 55% profit from FCX even though it set the new record high at the $50.90 breaking above the previous long-term top ($49.82).
Copper topped the ranks at the end of last year and moved north to the middle of February without breaking any serious resistance peaking at $2.8230. Then the price drifted lower, closer to the area of the December 2016 low at $2.4480 as projected in my previous update. Copper has now bounced higher and I would like to share with you some new data, which could change my outlook for the metal.
I would like to start from Chinese data as they are the top importer of the metal in the world. China’s copper import dropped almost 20% in 1Q of 2017 according to the Chinese customs statistics and this is not supporting the pricing information. Below are two charts to show you more headwinds from China.
Chart 1. Copper Vs Chinese GDP Growth Rate (Quarterly)
Chart courtesy of tradingeconomics.com
The Chinese economy (left scale, blue) advanced only 1.3 percent in the 1Q of 2017, following a 1.7 percent growth in the previous three months and missing market estimates of a 1.6 percent growth. It has been the weakest expansion since the 1st quarter of 2016. GDP Growth Rate in China averaged 1.84 percent from 2010 until 2017. Continue reading "Copper Could Face Strong Headwinds From China and Australia"→
Last month in my post I warned you that the market for copper and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) entered the consolidation period, which meant that it was good to let the market drift lower and wait for better price opportunities. As you could see in the chart below patience indeed is a key to everything.
Chart 1. Freeport-McMoRan Weekly: Trendline Support
The background for the copper market is not brighter these days as the macroeconomic data of the top metal consumer - China points at the cooling economy. Asian traders stored up the metal at the start of this year, pushing the price above the $2 mark to a high of $2.3. Nowadays weakening demand puts pressure on copper prices as the Chinese currency hit a 6-year low against the dollar which makes the import more expensive.
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