Tag: technical analysis

Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse...

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

We are all wrong at times. My point here is that you can state your case humbly, be wrong and try to do better next time or you can state your case in an emotionally charged manner, suck in some newbies, be wrong and then do it the hell again!… and again… and again. That is what I have observed over nearly 20 years of closely watching the sector. The spin cycle repeats over and over because new marks are being minted in the markets all the time. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse..." →

Keep An Eye On The Financial Sector

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US and Global markets. Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis? Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.

Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside price advance can take place. The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows. Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making. If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.

Let’s start off by taking a look at these Monthly charts… Continue reading "Keep An Eye On The Financial Sector" →

Crude Oil Hits The Target Early

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Back in February, I wondered: “How Far Could Crude Oil Go?” As this commodity confirmed the upside reversal breaking above $54.6. We are still living in a “PetroWorld” therefore the price of oil is crucial, and it impacts all of us around the globe. So, we should watch it carefully.

I spotted a structural similarity on the weekly chart, which was cloned and applied to the current pullback of oil price on the lower time frame daily chart. The price target was set at the $63.7 and the time goal was set on the 6th of May, 2019.

Before we move on to the updated daily chart, I would like to show you the results of your ballot on this topic.

oil price

I can’t express all my gratitude for your voting activity and support of my experiments. The results in the diagram above show that you also saw the area above $60 as a target for the current pullback. It is yet early to say if the price has topped already, but our initial target was achieved and even was passed over ahead of time.

In another ballot, you voted for the instruments you liked the most. Continue reading "Crude Oil Hits The Target Early" →

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

Posted on by The INO.com Team

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup" →

Crude Oil Nearing Resistance

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

The recent recovery in Crude Oil has, partially, been based on increasing expectations of a global economic recovery taking place and the continued news that the US/China will work out a trade deal. Crude inventories. Just last week US Crude Oil inventories came in at +7.2 million barrels vs. expectations of -425,000 barrels (). Additionally, concerns in Syria and Libya are pushing prices a bit higher as well. Whenever there are supply concerns or uncertainty out of this region, prices tend to rise.

The facts remain very dynamic for Oil. The US is continuing to produce more and more oil and is expected to become a “net exporter” of oil this year. Economic issues will, eventually, resolve themselves, yet we don’t know the final outcome of these trade deals or how the economy will react to any milestones that are required within the final settlement. And, again, these continuing issues in Libya, Syria and near this region are likely to cause some increased levels of uncertainty over the next 60+ days.

Our researchers believe the $65.00 level will act as resistance to this current upswing. We believe the upside price move may continue to levels near $67.50 before weakening and beginning a topping formation. We believe our expectation that precious metals will bottom near April 21~24 is key to understanding the dynamics of this move in Oil. As long as FEAR does not enter the market, then Oil will likely react to impulse factors exclusively related to Oil. Once Gold breaks out above $1500 per ounce, our belief is that Oil will react to fear factors related to some broader economic event driving investors into precious metals. Continue reading "Crude Oil Nearing Resistance" →