Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?

Both metals went amazingly well with the plan that I shared with you a month ago. I have shown you a possible structure of more complex correction and set the time targets for both metals. Below you can see where you thought the completion of the corrective move would finish.

gold silver poll

The votes were split almost even with a little margin in favor of the gold bugs as they preferred January 2020 as the ending point for the current extended correction. Silver fans chose Christmas day as their metal's chart showed it as a result of calculations.

Later on, there was an update where I set the price targets for both gold, and silver for the upcoming drop as the structure got more clarity.

As time goes by and the chart moves to the right, adding more and more bars, we can see the picture even clearer now to adjust both time and price targets for top metals below. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?"

Gold & Silver: Expected Drop Kicked Off

It was a timely call last week to "Beware Of Extended Consolidation" as right from last Monday we saw both metals plummet all the week long. Surely, it wasn't a self-fulfilling prophecy as the market was unexpectedly caught in a bullish euphoria. The chart structure was telling us about this possibility as such patterns appear from time to time. The same pattern had appeared on the Bitcoin chart as I had warned you this past August. That pattern of extended consolidation smashed Bitcoin’s value as planned from $10600 down to the projected target of $7800. Let's see where this pattern could send precious metals prices this time around.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Undershot => Overshot

gold silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

We've got the tricky junction between two legs down on the gold chart. The triangular structure (blue) had been shaped as lower peaks, and higher valleys were established there. This pattern is rarer than the regular zigzag that I was expecting to unfold. It created a huge undershot to the top of the range, which might result in a big overshot below the bottom of the range. By the way, gold already dropped like a rock to pierce the valley of the range last Friday. But, of course, that's not enough. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Expected Drop Kicked Off"

Gold & Silver: Beware Of Extended Consolidation

Gold and silver chart structures got synchronized, and I am happy to bring them back together in this post.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: $1557=>$1458

gold silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In my earlier post, I shared with you a detailed 4-hour chart of gold with a bullish outlook. Fortunately, the price had indeed gone higher and booked $27 per each ounce since then. I set the confirmation above $1520, which wasn't triggered yet, although we were very close as a high was hit at $1518 at the end of October. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Beware Of Extended Consolidation"

Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse...

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

We are all wrong at times. My point here is that you can state your case humbly, be wrong and try to do better next time or you can state your case in an emotionally charged manner, suck in some newbies, be wrong and then do it the hell again!… and again… and again. That is what I have observed over nearly 20 years of closely watching the sector. The spin cycle repeats over and over because new marks are being minted in the markets all the time. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse..."

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"