Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse...

Before the promotional corners of the gold community start with the conspiracies, excuse making and general placing of blame everywhere but where it belongs, let’s simply note that this correction was indicated (by sentiment) as far back as February 22nd. On that day I made a post quoting three anonymous sources within the community, firing up the troops to be hyper bullish… as in a gold price of $1400 promptly before a “parabolic slingshot” on the way to $3000 off of a “gargantuan pattern” (that had not even appeared yet and was but a figment of a fertile imagination).

The quotes and targets were compliments of different sources melded together for a mouthwatering smorgasbord of greed for gold bugs to sink their teeth into. It was a classic contrary indicator as the sector was touted far and wide while already overbought and obviously bullish. It was confirmation of the greediest hopes of the greediest and/or newest, most naive gold bugs (putting aside for a minute that gold itself is not a price play, but a value play within the leverage-rigged casino called the financial markets).

We are all wrong at times. My point here is that you can state your case humbly, be wrong and try to do better next time or you can state your case in an emotionally charged manner, suck in some newbies, be wrong and then do it the hell again!… and again… and again. That is what I have observed over nearly 20 years of closely watching the sector. The spin cycle repeats over and over because new marks are being minted in the markets all the time. Continue reading "Precious Metals: Wash, Rinse..."

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"

Is Gold Getting Ready For A Big Run?

While most of the focus has been on the equity markets lately, the gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) market has slowly been inching up. After making an all-time high close of $1904.92 on September 5, 2011 (see fig 1) the gold market then spiraled lower for the next several years. All that changed in 2016 when gold found a floor it liked and rallied to produce its first positive year since 2011, closing up almost 10% for the year.

Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) Chart

Take a look at the chart, the dominant feature in this close only spot gold chart is the 6 yr downward trend line (see fig 2). This is a classic trend line and an important technical tool. The key elements of any trend line are that it touches three price points. The other key level to look at is where the downward sloping trend line will be broken on the upside. That will occur in this particular trend line when spot gold trades over $1300 an ounce. At that time I believe that gold will embark on a multiyear bull market. Continue reading "Is Gold Getting Ready For A Big Run?"

Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market?

Technical analyst Jack Chan has examined the charts and says that if we are in a new bull market, prices in both gold and gold equities should begin to pull back and consolidate soon.

As suggested in our previous analysis, we need to see a couple of things happening in order to welcome a potential new bull market:

#1. COT data to return to bull market values.
#2. Gold price to exceed the 2015 high at $1,302.

Nobody can predict when this will happen, but we can prepare by looking at the past bull and bear markets so that we can recognize a new bull market if and when it materializes.

The Bear Market From 1981 to 2001

Gold Spot Price

After topping above $700 in 1981, gold lost more than half of its value in just over a year, followed by two sharp bear market rallies, and then died a slow death over the next 12 years. Continue reading "Are We or Are We Not in a New Gold Bull Market?"

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Gold Update: Last Bear Attack Is Pending

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today I want to share with you fully renewed charts with Gold technicals.

Big Picture: Correction

FX:XAUUSD Gold/U.S. Dollar Monthly

Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

The monthly chart shows a clear uptrend in the Gold market from $251.95 to $1920.80, which has now been retraced in a small correction. Small, because the Bears could hardly move through the first barrier of the 38.2% Fibonacci level that is below $1283. Continue reading "Gold Update: Last Bear Attack Is Pending"