Copper Has Exploded With Trump's Win

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It looks like we can name the top beneficiary of Mr. Trump’s win.

Chart 1. 1-Month Futures Relative Performance: Copper Is Unrivaled As Trump Favors Infrastructure

Copper Futures Performance
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

It’s amazing that the ultimate gainer during the final election period is the metal, not the stock index or currency. Besides that in the top three, there is another metal – palladium, which is also an industrial metal (used in catalyst for the automotive industry). In the past month, which was hot and dramatic, copper topped the ranking with a +17% gain as the U.S. dollar only scored a +4% gain and the S&P 500 scored even less with a +2% gain.

I think that every shift in the White House gives people hope for positive change. Copper buyers are hoping that the new president will fix the country's aging infrastructure system, which requires an enormous amount of copper and other industrial metals to be procured. "Rebuild the country's infrastructure; nobody can do that like me, believe me," he said. Giant projects require huge expenses; Mr. Trump pledged to spend up to $500bn upgrading roads, railways, airports and bridges across the US. That’s it; it was enough for the speculators, mainly from China, to lift the price of the metal.

Is this euphoria going to continue? Let’s look at the chart below for answers. Continue reading "Copper Has Exploded With Trump's Win"

Gold Takes Bugs On A Roller Coaster Ride

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


What is fear? It’s our emotion about something uncertain or unknown as it is natural for human beings to avoid risks. Someone said that to stop fearing it is good to face it as quite often it is only our mental illusion and has nothing common with reality. Another wise person advised looking at a larger perspective to cut the noise of the market to keep above the vanity.

I took both pieces of advice and combined them into a single weekly chart below.

Chart 1. Gold Weekly: Roller Coaster – Let’s Face The Maximum Fear

Weekly Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

On the multi-year chart above, we can clearly see that the global map of the market didn’t change for the past 3 years and we are still at the levels seen in the three previous years. Almost a year ago at the end of November 2015, gold hit a new low and set the new edge of the range with a fresh downside at $1046 and the upside at $1434 (August 2013 maximum). Right now the price is almost at the center of the range. Continue reading "Gold Takes Bugs On A Roller Coaster Ride"

Gold/Silver Ratio: Another Chance To Short?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In February I posted an idea to short gold and buy silver simultaneously at the 79 oz level as the ratio hit the top of the multi-decade range. The progress was surprisingly good and I wrote about it in July update and then the ratio stalled. Today I would like to show how we can use this respite to pocket gains.

Below is the ‘face-lifted’ February chart where I put focus on the main idea.

Chart 1. Gold/Silver Ratio: Mid-Range Set Strong Barrier

Gold/Silver ratio Chart Mid-Range barrier
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This is the so-called ‘bird’s-eye’ view of the ratio. Twenty years in the range with rare overshoots beyond the range and the single ultra-strength of silver in 2011, this could be titled as the fearless or careless time as you wish. Continue reading "Gold/Silver Ratio: Another Chance To Short?"

Gold And Top Gold Stocks: Not All "Birds" Flew To The North

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In this post, I would like to share with you the comparative dynamics of gold and top gold stocks starting from the date when the recent local bottom of gold was set at $1241 on the 7th of October, 2016 to see how top gold stocks reacted to the recent gold reversal.

Chart 1. Gold And Top Gold Stocks: Not All “Birds” Flew To The North

Gold vs. Gold Stocks
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

I put the chart the gold together with the 5 top gold mining stocks by market cap, which I started to cover this August. These are (ranked by market cap): Continue reading "Gold And Top Gold Stocks: Not All "Birds" Flew To The North"

Pendulum Experiment No.2 Snapshot: The Majority Is Wrong So Far!

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


At the start of July, I reviewed the result of the first Pendulum experiment where the loser metal Palladium could beat the supercharged Japanese Nikkei stock index. The same day at the end of the post I proposed to push the Pendulum again. This time we entered into competition the faded Nikkei index versus the matchless metal silver. Below is the graph of the bets you placed.

Chart 1. Nikkei Vs. Silver: Voting Results:

INO.com Poll

This vote clearly shows the biases of the readers as in the second experiment like in a first one the odds were in favor of the metal, at the first time it was palladium and this time it was silver. Only one person added to my voice in favor of the Nikkei as I am acting as an experimenter and chose the success of the Pendulum effect betting on the stock index to break the shutout.

Well, you will be surprised looking at the chart below as the majority’s bet is wrong so far. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment No.2 Snapshot: The Majority Is Wrong So Far!"