S&P 500 Hits Record Close

The S&P 500 crossed $4,000 for the first time in its history on Thursday, rising +1.2% to a fresh record close of 4,019.87 as Wall Street built on a solid March following the rollout of President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan. The DOW climbed 171.66 points or +0.5%, to 33,153.21, and the NASDAQ jumped +1.8% to 13,480.11.

On a weekly level, the DOW and the S&P 500 posted gains for the week, up +1.1% and +.24%, respectively. The NASDAQ fell +2.60% on the week. However, the market rally has slowed down in recent weeks as rising interest rates, and valuation concerns hit tech names. Continue reading "S&P 500 Hits Record Close"

Capturing Over 100% Premium - Diagonal Spreads

Capturing over 100% of the option's premium income and closing trades prior to expiration is the ideal scenario for options trades. The manner in how one constructs this options trade is the key to these attributes. A diagonal spread leverages a minimal amount of capital, defines risk, and maximizes return on investment while enabling traders to capture greater than 100% of the option premium while accelerating the trade's closure before expiration. Diagonal spreads are ideal when engaging in options trading for many reasons, namely its risk mitigation properties. This type of trade is excellent to layer into a long-term successful overall options strategy which includes risk-defining trades, staggering expiration dates, trading across a wide array of uncorrelated tickers, maximizing the number of trades, appropriate position allocation, and always being an option seller to continuously bring premium income into the portfolio.

Using a combination of diagonal call spreads, diagonal put spreads, call spreads, put spreads, and iron condors over the past 11 months, a total of 248 options trades were placed and closed. During this timeframe, 243 trades were winning trades for a 98% option win rate with an average income per trade of $168, an average return on investment (ROI) per trade of 7.9%, and overall premium capture of 85%. An options-based portfolio can offer the optimal balance between risk and reward while providing a margin of downside and upside protection with high probability win rates. Risk management is essential when engaging in options trading to drive portfolio performance, and diagonal spreads are a key component to this overall strategy (Figures 1, 2, and 3).

Diagonal Spreads

Figure 1 – Comprehensive options-based performance metrics
Continue reading "Capturing Over 100% Premium - Diagonal Spreads"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 3/27/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

Not a lot has changed in my forecast since last week… I believe the S&P 500 (analyzed here using the ETF SPY) is working its way through a possible head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart. This is a very well understood and recognized reversal pattern and would thus attract a lot of profit-taking activity which I’m expecting to turn the market sharply lower.

For those who are more visual, my forecast for the S&P can be best understood by looking at the yellow lines on the attached chart. The bounce I forecasted last week appeared on schedule and is driving the price up for what I believe will be a failed rally ending as a lower high. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Stocks Finish Volatile Week On High Note

Stocks soared on Friday, finishing the volatile week on a high note, having their best day in more than two weeks.

The DOW closed 453.40 points higher or +1.4%, to 33,072.88. The S&P 500 rose +1.7% to 3,974.54, hitting a record closing high, and the NASDAQ erased a -0.8% loss to end the session +1.2% higher to 13,138.72. All three indexes rallied to their session highs into the close.

On a weekly level, the DOW and the S&P 500 posted gains for the week, up +1.4% and +1.6%, respectively. The NASDAQ fell -0.6% on the week. However, the market rally has slowed down in recent weeks as rising interest rates and valuation concerns hit big tech stocks. Continue reading "Stocks Finish Volatile Week On High Note"

Tech Selloff Continues To Pressure Market

The DOW slid 234.33 points or -0.7%, to 32,627.97 on Friday, pressured by Visa and JPMorgan. The S&P 500 dipped -0.1% to 3,913.10, closing off its lowest level of the day when it fell 0.7%. The NASDAQ gained +0.8% to 13,215.24 as investors bought the dip in tech shares which had been putting pressure on the market after continuing to selloff earlier in the week. Facebook gained +4%, while Amazon and Netflix rose about +1.5% each.

On a weekly level, The DOW and the S&P 500 lost -0.5% and -0.8%, respectively, this week, breaking their two-week win streak. The NASDAQ also declined -0.8% for the week, posting its fourth negative week in the last five. Continue reading "Tech Selloff Continues To Pressure Market"