Category: General

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract is currently up $13 an ounce at 1,298 after settling last Friday at 1,299 unchanged even though prices settled right at session highs today. Gold prices are trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average, and if you look at the daily chart, it basically mirrors exactly what silver has been doing as prices also topped out on February 20th at 1,349 as prices have now hit a two month low this week. The volatility in gold is starting to expand as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop, but I do think the downside is limited as there is a lot of uncertainty worldwide as Europe is also lowering its growth forecasts as that could send money flows back into the gold. The U.S. dollar hit a 2-year high this week, and that is why you witnessed around a $60 sell off or 4% from recent highs as I think gold prices have held up relatively well despite that fact so look to play this to the upside in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Gold Sentiment Lesson

Posted on by The INO.com Team

[edit] an article critical of (anonymous) others is an appropriate venue to once again note publicly the biggest mistake of my own, which was an ill-conceived target of 888 on HUI last decade. I learned from that. It’s okay to admit mistakes boys. We all make ’em. But as with humility, that appears to be all too rare in the market writer world as well. It’s okay to once in a while simply state “I was wrong”.

The number in the title is in honor of the boldest forecast burped up by the gold community in February as the metal (and the miners) jerked upward and jerked the holdout would-be enthusiasts into the market. It was included in the anonymous (but real) quotes from a cautionary post last week on the Gold Bull Horns.

We also used these quotes in an NFTRH update in order to try to make a point, despite what were very short-term contrarian bullish readings that day (per Sentimentrader’s data) for junior and senior gold miners.

From the update (2.28.19)… Continue reading "Gold Sentiment Lesson" →

Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Over in the gold patch, things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right-minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence. Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites, some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more… Continue reading "Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 is trading at 2789 after settling last Friday in Chicago at 2777 up another 12 points hovering near a 12-week high as the bullish momentum is continuing to get stronger. I do not have any recommendations in the equity markets, but I do believe higher prices are ahead as you have to remember the Federal Reserve now looks like they will not raise interest rates and that's another fundamental bullish factor towards stock prices. The next major level of resistance is around 2820 / 2825 and if that is broken, I would think prices will hit all-time highs once again as I remain bullish the equity market as I see no reason to be short. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly the trend is to the upside as the U.S. economy is doing exceptionally well as I shake my head and wonder what the heck happened in December when stock and oil prices plummeted only the rebound sharply in 2019. If you take a look at the S&P 500 as a whole it's only trading at about 16 times earnings which historically speaking is not that expensive as this is not a bubble in my opinion while still having room to run to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

A Precious Metals Update

Posted on by The INO.com Team

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark, you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

Precious Metals Update

First off, Commitments of Traders data are only available through 12.31.18 as a result of the government shutdown. So we are flying somewhat blind from that perspective. At the end of December, the CoT for gold and silver were well on their way to a bearish alignment. Have they maxed their trends and reversed in the meantime? It is quite possible, especially since the metals have taken pullbacks (within their intermediate uptrends) recently.

We have been following an analog to 2001, which saw SPX break down below its 50 & 200 day moving averages as HUI began its bull market. What’s more, SPX then tested its breakdown in Q1 2001… Continue reading "A Precious Metals Update" →