Category: INO.com Contributors

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract is currently trading at 1,509 after settling last Friday in New York at 1,457 up over $50 for the trading week hitting a 6-year high as interest rates in the United States and worldwide continue to drop precipitously weekly. China devalued its currency this week to an 11 year low against the U.S dollar as there is sheer panic worldwide that is causing gold prices to move higher as I am not involved, but I do believe higher prices are ahead.

If you are long a futures contract place the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 1,412 as the charge structure is terrible at the current time due to the run-up in prices, however, I also have bullish recommendations in silver and platinum as money flows continue to enter into these sectors.

Gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this is probably the strongest trend besides the bond market at the current time as I see no reason to be short especially with all this worldwide uncertainty so if you are long-stay long. If you are not involved in this market, I would not chase this as that is very dangerous as you have missed the boat so move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with less risk.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the September contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.39 an ounce while currently trading at 16.94 up about $0.55 as prices hit a 13 month high continuing its bullish momentum following the coattails of gold which is at a 6 year high.

Interest rates around the world continue to plunge to the downside as that is a fundamental bullish factor towards silver prices as I have been recommending a bullish position from the 14.93 level and if you took the trade continue to place the stop loss at 16.08 on a closing basis only as an exit strategy. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Generating smooth and consistent income month after month without predicting which way the stock market will move is the objective of options trading. Running an option-based portfolio offers a superior risk profile relative to a stock-based portfolio while providing a statistical edge to optimize favorable trade outcomes. Options trading is a long-term game that requires discipline, patience, time, maximizing the number of trade occurrences and continuing to trade through all market conditions. Put simply; an options-based approach provides a margin of safety with a decreased risk profile while providing high-probability win rates. Essentially, options are a bet on where stocks won’t go, not where they will go. Sticking to a set of fundamentals, this approach can provide long-term, high-probability win rates to generate consistent income while circumventing drastic market moves. In July, I posted a 96% (24/25) options win rate, and over the previous 10 months through both bull and bear markets that win rate percentage was 87% (199/230). Over the previous 10 months, the options-based portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 over the same period by a significant margin producing a 6.1% return against a 2.3% for the S&P 500.

What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?

Insurance companies sell policies based on actuaries and risk factors, then price these polices to their advantage. Insurance companies are betting on probabilities across insurance products and sell overpriced policies above their expected losses. The insurer agrees to pay out a specific amount of money for a specific loss (i.e., death). In return, the insurance company is paid monthly premiums, and based on this risk-based revenue model; it’s a very profitable business. Insurance companies sell policies with a premium cost level that maximizes a statistical edge to the insurance company’s benefit. The goal is to collect premiums over the course of the policy and never payout on the policies they sell to you. So, the probability of paying out on the policy is very low while the premiums received, over the policy lifespan will exceed your total benefit. Continue reading "What Does Life Insurance Have To Do With Options Trading?" →

The Bond Yield Continuum And Gold

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are skyrocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage, and deflation. Here is the 30-year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

30 year bond yield

But just as we warned that the precious metals move was a “launch” (not a blow-off as some were calling it) in June because it was at the beginning rather than the end of an extended move, we note that TYX is impulsively dropping into a potential climax. Everybody is on the opposite side of the boat they were on in H2 2018. That would be the BOND BEAR MARKET!! side of the boat with experts Gross, Gundlach, and company. Now amidst the current Armageddon (the SPX is after all down a whole 4% from its all-time high, he said sarcastically) backdrop, it’s all BOND BULL MARKET!! all the time.

Wash…

Rinse…

Repeat… Continue reading "The Bond Yield Continuum And Gold" →

Could Lithium Become The Best Performing Commodity

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Most investors know of the little car company called Tesla (TSLA) and how it is leading the industry in electric vehicles (EV’s). But what some may not know is that every single major car manufacturer around the world is attempting to compete with Tesla and produce EV’s themselves.

This increase in electric vehicle availability and production in the future is great for reducing carbon emissions caused by standard gas combustion engines. Furthermore, if the EV revolution takes hold like most believe it will, the impact on the oil markets will certainly be felt, but lower demand for one commodity will likely mean higher demand for another.

Lithium is a key component in the namesake battery, ‘lithium-ion-battery,’ which by the way, is currently the main battery used for high powered electronics and EV’s. While it's evident that small hand-held electronics (smartphones, tablets, laptops) continue to grow in popularity worldwide, those devices don’t require the same amount of lithium as what some predict the electric vehicle market will consume in just a few years.

In 2018 EV sales rose 81% over sales figures in 2017, this was primarily due to Tesla’s Model 3 hitting 139,000 units sold. The Model 3 had such a significant impact on the market due to its low cost, but still, highly fashionable appearance and other high-tech features and amenities that other lower-priced EV’s like the Toyota Prius and Nissan Leaf don’t offer.
The Model 3’s success shows that if you offer higher-end features and options in EV’s that consumers want, they will buy them. We recently saw Ford using a model of its Electric F 150 truck pull a 1.25-million-pound train. Tesla has shown models of its electric pickup truck, not to mention its Semi-truck electric vehicle.

With rapidly increasing numbers of EV’s being sold and now more options in terms of types of EV’s soon to hit the market, it's hard to see how the demand for lithium doesn’t increase in the coming years. Which is why now may be the best time to buy up some lithium-based Exchange Traded Funds and sit on them while other investors push the prices higher once they realize they missed the boat.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few lithium-based ETFs you can buy today. Continue reading "Could Lithium Become The Best Performing Commodity" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,432 while currently trading at 1,448 up about $16 for the trading week experiencing a wild trading session yesterday having a $45 range rallying sharply on the close because the Trump administration is going to levy more tariffs on China.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100 moving average as this is the strongest precious metal at the current time. I still believe higher prices are ahead. However, I am not involved. I do have bullish recommendations in platinum, silver, and copper as they all experiencing high volatility over the last several days.

Gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly this trend is strong to the upside. However, for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the July 19th high of 1,467 as gold prices are right near a 6 year high.

The 10-year note is yielding 1.87% as I have a bullish recommendation in that market as that is helping fuel gold prices higher as European countries and Japan have negative interest rates so money flows are coming into gold and I don't think that situation is going to change anytime soon as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →