What To Expect From Powell 2.0

By renominating Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair over Fed governor Lael Brainard, whom he nominated to be Vice-Chair, President Biden has supposedly chosen the safer and less political route. But rest assured that in Powell's second term, which requires Senate confirmation, likely to be a slam dunk, the Fed will be involved in politics like never before.

That's because Biden has several other seats to fill on the seven-member Fed board of governors, and the composition and thinking of that board promises to be a lot different than the current roster, even if it has the same chair. It will likely move more aggressively to implement the current administration's progressive policies.

Indeed, while Biden may have chosen Powell to serve another term, it will likely be Sen. Elizabeth Warren and her acolytes who will have the biggest influence on Fed policy in the years to come.

The most important seat other than the top two is likely to be that of the vice chair for supervision, currently held by Randal Quarles, who said he plans to resign from the Fed board by the end of the year. If Sen. Warren and her allies have their way, that position will go to someone who will further the left's agenda to impose and enforce stricter regulations on banks, including climate change policies. Continue reading "What To Expect From Powell 2.0"

Inflation Hits 30-Year High - "Transitory"?

Inflation Hits 30-Year High

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) jumped 6.2% in October, leading to the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years. The core CPI (removing the impact of food and energy) mirrored these numbers, increasing 4.6% to another 30-year high. Either way, you slice these CPI numbers, these increases are screaming decades' high inflation. The sky-rocketing inflation numbers are negating wage increases that workers have been receiving. These data continue to be at odds with policymakers maintaining that the current price pressures are transitory and related to Covid pandemic-specific issues. Albeit they have admitted that inflation has been more persistent than they expected, they see conditions returning to normal over the next year or so.

Escalating inflation could cause the Fed to tighten policy more quickly than it has signaled. The central bank has indicated that it will within the next few weeks start reducing the amount of bonds it buys each month, though officials have indicated that interest rate hikes are still off in the future. These rising inflation expectations and the realization of these inflationary pressures could cause the Federal Reserve to change policy course sooner rather than later. It's going to be a tug-a-war between inflation, employment, Washington wrangling, and the delta variant backdrop. CPI reports will become more significant as these readings are used to identify periods of inflation. The recent CPI readings are resulting in a much stronger influence on the Federal Reserve's monetary policies hence the recent taper guidance.

Unsustainable Inflation

The CPI basket of goods is increasing at unsustainable rates. Fuel oil prices soared 12.3% in October, culminating in a 59% increase over the past year. Energy prices overall rose 4.8% in October and are up 30% for over the past 12-month period. Used vehicle prices continued rising 2.5% on the month and 26% for the year. New vehicle prices were also up 1.4% and 9.8%, respectively. Food prices also showed an uptick of 0.9% and 5.3% respectively. Within the food category, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs collectively rose 1.7% for the month and 11.9% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve will need to heed these real inflation numbers before it wreaks havoc on the consumer and businesses alike. Continue reading "Inflation Hits 30-Year High - "Transitory"?"

Bitcoin Buy Setup, Apple Is On Alert

The knowledge of chart structure helps to navigate the market even when the latter surprises traders.

Bitcoin Chart

Bitcoin dropped a little bit later than I expected, creating a complex structure. The main coin updated the all-time high as it hit the $69k mark. If we look deep into the structure in the 4-hour chart above, we find that it was a part of a large two-leg consolidation (red down arrows). The new record high was established within a "joint" connecting two legs down. Continue reading "Bitcoin Buy Setup, Apple Is On Alert"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 11/21/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

Another quiet week, weirdly so... I'm starting to wonder if this inaction is the behavioral proof that the only game in town these days is Fed-injected liquidity. Still stalking the short side as all my measurements are very scary and extreme to the bear side... Yet price (which is the ONLY thing that matters) doesn't react. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Stock Market Stumbles To The Finish

The stock market stumbled into the week's finish on Friday, with The DOW falling 268.97 points or -0.75%, to end the week at 35,879.09. The S&P 500 dropped -0.14% to 4,717.75, and the NASDAQ advanced +0.40% to close at 16,121.12 on Friday.

On a weekly level, two of the three major indexes finished in the green. The NASDAQ led the way with a weekly gain of +1.2%, and the S&P 500 added +0.32%. The DOW, however, suffered its second straight week of losses losing -1.38%. Continue reading "Stock Market Stumbles To The Finish"