Lock In Now Before It's Too Late

Posted on by George Yacik

I’ve been shopping for brokered certificates of deposit, and the rates between one-year and five-year CDs aren’t a whole lot different. Rates at my broker range from 2.4% for one-year to 2.65% for five, with two- and three-year rates in between.

My first inclination was to stay short. Why lock up my money for five years when I can get nearly the same rate for one, two, or three years? What if rates go up in the meantime?

Fat chance. Given the Federal Reserve’s past behavior, the odds of that happening are pretty slim, if nonexistent. It may make more sense to lock up your money – if you don’t want to risk it in the stock or bond market – for as long as possible now.

With all of the betting now on the Fed cutting – not raising – interest rates this year, market interest rates are only likely to go down from here, not up. Despite its recent track record of quick monetary policy reversals in the face of market volatility, shifting from a restrictive policy to a more accommodative one – i.e., lower interest rates – just makes the Fed more comfortable. Other than savers – who most people with any influence ignore – everyone loves low rates, and if nothing else the Fed wants to be loved. Continue reading "Lock In Now Before It's Too Late" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,311 an ounce while currently trading at 1,347 up over $35 for the trading week looking to retest the contract high that was hit on February 20th at 1,361 in my opinion.

Currently, I'm not involved in gold, but I do believe higher prices are ahead as the 10-year note is now yielding 2.05% which is a 21-month low as that is a fundamental bullish factor for gold and commodity prices in general as prices held major support around the 1,275 level & now look to move higher.

Gold prices are right at a 3 1/2 month high, and if the contract high is broken, you're looking at a possibility that prices will trade into the $1,400 range as strong demand continues to push prices higher.

The U.S. dollar has hit a 4 week low this week, and that also is a bullish towards gold prices as it doesn't look like the trade war with China is going to end anytime soon. Money flows continue to go into the markets that are known as a flight to quality which includes gold and the bond market as I see no reason to be short gold at this time as I will be looking at buying on a price dip.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

DOW Surges On Rate-Cut Hopes

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The DOW surged over 300 points Friday on renewed hopes of a July rate cut by the Fed and possibly as much as three cuts by the end of the year. All three of the major indexes will post weekly gains over +4%, which is incredible considering that nothing has changed from last week. We still do not have an agreement in place with both China and Mexico when it comes to trade deals and the threat of increased tariffs is still real.

The Dow is up +4.8% this week. It is also on pace to snap a six-week losing streak. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up +4.6% and +4.9% this week capping off an incredible comeback after a soft open to the week and continuous weekly losses. They are all on pace to notch their biggest weekly gains since November of 2018.

Earlier in the week, ADP reported that the private sector added fewest jobs in May since 2010 with jobs only rising by 27,000 last month which was way below expectations of a 180,000 increase. To add to that Labor Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs last month, much smaller than the 185,000 additions estimated by economists, suggesting the loss of momentum in economic activity was spreading to the labor market.

Will the Fed cut rates in July?

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Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "DOW Surges On Rate-Cut Hopes" →

U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that March crude oil production averaged 11.905 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 241,000 b/d from February. The rise was largely the result of the resumption of output from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had been affected by unscheduled maintenance. Production rose by 191,000 b/d.

Crude Production

Elsewhere, there were gains of 42,000 b/d in North Dakota, 23,000 b/d in New Mexico and 16,000 b/d in Oklahoma. There was a decline of 17,000 b/d in Colorado and 5,000 b/d in Texas. A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019. Nonetheless, crude production rose by a spectacular 1.441 mmbd from June through March. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Rebounds In March" →

Betting On Rate Cuts By The Fed

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. After opening the week lower on the heels of a week to forget the stocks market bounced back with fury on Tuesday and that move higher has continued today with the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ all showing gains as we enter afternoon trading. Reason for the move higher, renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank will keep an eye on current developments in the economy and would do what it must to "sustain the expansion." Powell did, however, note that the central bank could not determine when or how global trade issues would be settled.

Rate Cuts

Adding fuel to the market speculation that the Fed will cut rates is a lackluster jobs report. ADP reported data that showed that the private sector added fewest jobs in May since 2010, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to counter a potential slowdown. Jobs rose by 27,000 last month, according to the ADP National Employment Report, much below expectations of a 180,000 increase.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com