Silver Update: Who Shot The Sheriff?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Silver started October with a long bullish candle. The next day I wrote a post that Silver could reach higher highs, and long positions are favorable from the risk/reward point of view. The metal rocketed more than $1 from the posted price ($15.229), but caught the “bullet” in the sky and fell “dead”.

Below is the reconstruction of my chart from that post to see where the metal reached and what levels were broken back.

Silver Daily: After Crash

Daily Silver Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Silver has managed to overshoot the distance of the green ab segment by 0.382 (at 1.382 Fibonacci expansion ratio) and has outweighed Gold’s progress that it couldn’t overshoot. The entire segment has fit into a single month of October from the trough to the peak on October 28th. Gold peaked earlier on October 15th and didn’t make new highs after that. Continue reading "Silver Update: Who Shot The Sheriff?" →

This Stock Could Outperform The Market In The Next Three Months

Posted on by The INO.com Team

October proved to be a spectacular month for stocks with the best gains seen since the third quarter of 2011. Historically, the last quarter proves to be a good one for stocks. That is not a guarantee that stocks will go higher, but historically since 1949, stocks have averaged a gain of 4% in Q4. That is followed by a strong Q1 with the average gain of 2%. History is all well and good, but it doesn't necessarily repeat itself in a very systematic fashion every single year.

Here's the stock that I think can do very well in Q4. The stock is TE Connectivity Ltd. (NYSE:TEL). Presently this stock is trading around the $64.90 area and I believe it can move substantially higher in Q4.

Here are the reasons why I think that: Continue reading "This Stock Could Outperform The Market In The Next Three Months" →

The Next FX Play: Long Sterling

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


This week is expected to be a choppy one for the Pound Sterling. On Thursday, the Bank of England is set to publish its quarterly Inflation Report alongside the BoE rate decision. FX investors want to see if, afterward, a more hawkish picture emerges. If that’s the case, Sterling could quickly move higher against its battered peer, the Euro.

What to Watch for in the Inflation Report

Essentially, there are three different points worth watching in next week’s Inflation Report.

• The first are global risks. In August’s Inflation Report, the BoE warned of downside risks to inflation from global weakness. Yet after the Fed dropped its own warning on global risks, the BoE may follow suit. That will, of course, be the first hawkish sign.

• The second would be the risk of imported inflation or, in this case, disinflation. The BoE has justifiably warned of the consequences of a weak Euro. Many UK imports come from the Eurozone, and the Eurozone is a key export destination. Thus, a weak Euro weighs on UK inflation by lowering prices of goods within the UK. If the Bank sees this risk as more muted, that’s a positive sign. Although with chances of additional ECB stimulus increasing it’s hard to see a change to this segment.

• The third would be inflation expectations. Of course, it all does eventually narrow down to inflation expectations. In its past report, the BoE had expected downward inflationary pressures would gradually recede in the second half of the year. Is this scenario still intact? If, over the past quarter the BoE still sees the risk of deflation diminishing, that’s another hawkish arrow. It’s also another sign that the BoE, although at a somewhat slow pace, is moving toward high rates.

Reasons to be Upbeat

Generally, markets are optimistic on the chances of UK inflation stabilizing and the BoE turning more hawkish. The reason is the dissonance between wage gains and inflation. The chart shows that core inflation (which neutralizes seasonal and external factors) has lagged wage growth. Meanwhile, UK retail sales growth has remained robust, growing at 6.5%. This suggests that Britons are earning more and spending more. That, eventually, has to translate into higher inflation. Continue reading "The Next FX Play: Long Sterling" →

Spotting Breakouts That Lead To Trend Reversals

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We get a lot of questions here at INO.com about how to spot breakouts before they occur. As a treat to our Trader's Blog readers we have asked Darell Jobman, a leading expert in technical analysis to share some his techniques. 

In this video workshop you'll discover how putting indicator clues together to identify setups for a new trend. Darrell has been writing about financial markets for more than 35 years and has become an acknowledged authority on derivative markets, technical analysis and various trading techniques.

Watch Now:Spotting Breakouts That Lead To Trend Reversals

Best,
The INOTV Team

Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

By: Elliott Wave International

In the early 1990s, two simple words from a genius ad campaign radically transformed the way the U.S. consumer saw it: "Got Milk?"

Suddenly, the narrative changed from an obligatory drink you had to finish as a kid, along with eating your vegetables -- into a sexy, funny, and above all desirable treat for all ages.

Until now.

In Europe, in 2015, famous celebrities donning milk mustaches no longer light the public's passion for lactose -- as prices for milk have spoiled. Here, a September 8, 2015 CNN Money article captures the curdled state of affairs:

"So much milk is sloshing around the European Union that milk is often cheaper than bottled water. In UK, a liter bottle of water costs around $1.50, a liter of milk $1... Wholesale milk prices have collapsed by 20% this year."

(Idea for a new campaign pitch: "Got (really, really, dirt cheap) Milk?")

Except that, it's not just the price of milk that's gone sour. According to data from April 2015, "supermarket prices in the UK have fallen at the steepest rate in eight years," including meat, milk, cheese, and vegetables. (The Telegraph) Continue reading "Europe in Deflation: Got (cheap) Milk?" →