Why The U.S. Gasoline Stock Build Was Not Surprising

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that gasoline stocks had “surprisingly surged despite heavy driving on the Memorial Day weekend.” But the 3.3 million barrel build was actually not that surprising, given the development of gasoline production capacity and the relative softness of gasoline demand.

Over the past four years, the U.S. refining industry expanded its gasoline production capacity in the United States by almost one million barrels per day. In 2013, production peaked at just below 9.5 million barrels per day. Last year, production peaked at 10.3 million. And this summer production could reach 10.5 million.

Gasoline Production

Gasoline demand growth has lagged. Peak demand in 2013 was just above 9.1 million. Last summer, demand peaked at 9.6 million, an increase of about one-half million.

But in the year-to-date, gasoline demand has been 2.9% lower than over the same weeks in 2016. Retail gasoline prices dropped to low levels in the first quarter of 2016, when crude oil prices were bottoming, and that created a surge in demand that was not repeated in 2017. Continue reading "Why The U.S. Gasoline Stock Build Was Not Surprising"

The Gasoline Price Risk Factor

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies

While the oil market has focused on news about production cuts from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, a new oil price risk has been developing. U.S. gasoline inventories have risen to their highest level.

U.S. Gasoline Inventory

What’s even more unusual is that they have set a record high at the same time as U.S. crude oil inventories. Usually, crude oil stocks rise as product stocks drop, and vice-versa, reflecting swings in refinery utilization, which simultaneously increase the demand for crude and output of petroleum products, and vice-versa. Continue reading "The Gasoline Price Risk Factor"

Ride The Oil Recovery With This Driller

Daniel Cross - INO.com Contributor - Equities

Contrarian plays can often pay off for investors that are willing to weather some short-term volatility. The oil industry has experienced pain for over a year now which began late in the summer of last year as oil prices fell to lows that hadn't been seen in a decade. This weakness has created some value opportunities, though, with oil stocks now trading at discounted prices.

Global growth concerns have weighed heavily on energy demands while a supply glut has kept oil low. However, oil may be facing a bullish cycle over the next quarter with more upside to come for 2016. Demand is growing again and oil supply for next year is estimated to be tighter than previously expected. Since August, oil prices have traded in the $45 to $50 range indicating that it has finally settled and reached a bottom. Continue reading "Ride The Oil Recovery With This Driller"

Would You Invest In Saudi Arabia? How About Iran?

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

Saudi Arabia opened its $590 billion stock market to foreign investors Monday – a move aimed at helping the country’s companies endure a potentially extended period of lower oil prices.

Interestingly, only about one-fifth of the companies traded on the Tadawul Saudi Stock Exchange are directly in the oil business. But most others are, of course, heavily affected by oil, which has long been the major driver of Saudi Arabia’s economy.

By opening the exchange to all foreign investors, the Saudis hope to help its domestic companies raise significant capital, thereby helping to strengthen – and diversify – the country’s economy. The Kingdom may also be hoping some new foreign investment can help plug a hole in its budget, which has expanded to pay Saudi companies that rely on government contracts for construction, infrastructure, agriculture, education, and other areas. According to the Saudi Gazette on Sunday, the country’s breakeven crude oil price has risen from just under $75 in 2009 to about $90 today, translating into an estimated $38.6 billion budget deficit for fiscal year 2015. Continue reading "Would You Invest In Saudi Arabia? How About Iran?"

How To Manage A Natural Resources Fund When You're Bearish On Natural Resources

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies

I wrote a couple weeks ago about whether we're seeing the end of the oil supercycle. In my article, I heavily referenced a money management firm (WHV Investments) that has been bullish on energy investments since predicting a “supercycle” in 2000 (great call at the time!). Despite the massive turmoil since last June, WHV continues to be bullish.

An oil-bullish money manager

To get a flavor for stocks owned by a manager who is bullish on the continuation of the energy supercycle, check out this partial list of WHVIX's stock holdings. Granted, the holdings data are a few weeks old, but WHV tends to have very low turnover and says it’s sticking with its thesis. WHV management believes we’re still in the oil supercycle; accordingly, WHVIX owns stocks like these (as of 12/31/2014, source: WHV.com; this list represents selected stocks rather than a complete Top 10 list):

WHVIX Natural Resources Stock List

* “Bullish signal” refers to whether MarketClub is displaying “green triangles” for both the intermediate - and long-term outlook.

Of the above holdings, WHVIX appears to have (during 4Q 2014) increased its exposure to Suncor, which derives a large plurality of its business from “downstream” refining and marketing activities. Additionally, Suncor has significant development efforts in Canada’s Athabasca oil sands. Continue reading "How To Manage A Natural Resources Fund When You're Bearish On Natural Resources"