Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates - Part 1

US Mortgage Rates have risen from levels near 2% to 2.25% earlier in 2021 to levels now above 3%. This increase in the cost of borrowing money for home purchases has a downward effect on home prices and sales. The affordability of homes is directly related to the sales price and the cost of the mortgage to secure the purchase of the home. As interest rates rise, home affordability becomes less attractive and feasible for many potential buyers, and home prices start to fall in an attempt to allow a quicker sale.

The Making of Another US/Global Housing Crisis

The easiest way to think about this is to consider the ability of buyers to secure and satisfy mortgage payments for homes. The more expensive the sales price of the home and the interest rate of the loan is, the more likely the affordability of the home is going to be perceived as undesirable.

As concerns related to the US economy, and the indication by the US Federal Reserve that rates will likely start to increase before the end of 2021 or very early in 2022, mortgage rates have already increased by nearly 45% over the past 60 days. A $500k home would have cost about $2500 a month at a 2.25% mortgage rate (including property taxes, homeowners insurance, mortgage insurance, and principal & interest). That same $500k home costs more than $2700 a month at a 3.25% interest rate (including all fees and costs).

US Interest Rate Chart - Home Buying

Over the lifetime of the loan, the total costs of buying the $500k home have now increased by more than $70k for the buyer. If rates rise to 4.25%, the new monthly cost of that same $500k home rises to nearly $3000 per month. Raising the total cost of buying that $500k home by more than $180k over the lifetime of the loan for the new buyer. Continue reading "Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates - Part 1"

Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher

If the face of last week’s sideways price action and almost in a rebellious manner today (May 4, 2021), the Transportation Index is moving higher while the US major indexes are all broadly lower. VIX has shot up over 20 again (over +13% higher) and the NASDAQ is off by more than 300 points (-2.75%) as I write this article. Yet, the Transportation Index is bucking the trends and trading higher.

What does it mean when the Transportation Index bucks the major index trends?

My team and I have often highlighted the Transportation Index in our past research article. The reason we watch this index so closely is that it tends to lead market trends by at least 30 to 60 days. In short, the Transportation Index is a measure of future expectations related to freight, shipping, transportation, and the movement of goods and commodities across the US and across the globe.

When an economy contracts, the Transportation Index will likely follow major indexes lower as future expectations related to economic activity contract. When a recession or deep price correction happens, the Transportation Index usually moves sharply lower as the sudden shock of an unexpected economic contagion vastly alters future economic expectations. But generally, the Transportation Index tends to front-run economic expectations. Continue reading "Transportation Index Continues To Grind Higher"

Want To Invest In Real Estate?

As an asset class, real estate should be a part of every balanced investment portfolio. That’s because real estate investments generally have a low correlation to stocks, can offer lower risk, and provide greater diversification.

Today about 65% of Americans own a home, but that means that tens of millions of Americans have no exposure to real estate. Making matters worse, becoming a homeowner today is harder than in previous generations, with 1 in 5 millennials believing they will never be able to afford a home. Is there a way to get exposure to the real estate market for as little as $100?

Residential Real Estate Market Trend

From the chart below, we can see that the residential real estate market continues to climb, and the median price of houses sold in the US is near recent all-time highs of $347,500. Even though mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the appreciation of prices in certain pockets of the country are making many cities and areas simply unaffordable for most. Things look much the same for industrial, commercial, agricultural, and most other specialized real estate subsectors.

Real Estate

How Can You Invest In Real Estate Through The Stock Market

The stock markets offer three different ways you can invest in real estate, and today we will be looking at three of them: REITs, ETNs, and ETFs. Continue reading "Want To Invest In Real Estate?"

How To Stop Being Scared

The markets really scared a lot of people in the last month. We’ve received lots of emails and comments from people wondering what’s happening in the markets and why the deeper downtrend didn’t prompt new trade triggers. Well, the quick answer is “this downtrend did prompt new BAN strategy trade triggers and this pullback is still quite mild compared to historical examples.” Allow me to explain my thinking.

The recent FOMC meeting, as well as the expiration of the futures contracts, usually prompts some broad market concerns. Many professional traders refuse to trade over the 7+ days near an FOMC meeting – the volatility levels are usually much higher, and this can throw some trading strategies into chaos. Our BAN Trader Pro strategy handles volatility quite well most of the time.

Recently, the BAN Trader Pro strategy initiated new trade triggers of subscribers and myself. Our members are engaged in the best-performing assets for the potential upside price rally that may take place over the next couple of months. Our strategies target opportunities based on proven quantitative technology – not emotions and use proven position management to maximize gains while reducing drawdowns.

Transportation Index Daily Chart Is Bullish

This leading index shows early strength in the market with an upside target of $14,668. That is a 3.5%-4.5% upside move ahead of us.

Recently, we’ve seen some substantial support in the Transportation Index that aligns with our BAN Trader Pro strategy. The rally in the Transportation Index, which usually leads the US economy by at least 2 to 4 months, suggests the markets are actively seeking out a support level/momentum base for another rally phase. Continue reading "How To Stop Being Scared"

Are The Markets Sending A Warning Sign?

After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now, and should traders/investors be cautious?

The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall; we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.

We are also concerned about an early TWEEZERS TOP pattern that has set up early this week. If the price continues to move lower as we progress through futures contract expiration week, FOMC, and other data this week, then we may see some strong resistance setting up near $35.25. Have the markets gotten ahead of themselves recently? Could we be setting up for a moderately deeper pullback in price soon?

markets

The following SSO, ProShares S&P 500 ETF Weekly chart, shows a similar setup. Although the rally in the SSO is not quite the same range as the XLF, we see a solid TWEEZERS TOP pattern setup on the SSO chart over a period of many weeks. We also found the moderate weakness in the US indexes interesting this morning. Last week, we continued to see very strong buying trends. Today, we see those trends have almost vanished. Are the markets setting near highs waiting for some announcement or news to push them into a new trend? Continue reading "Are The Markets Sending A Warning Sign?"