Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 6/13/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

It feels like a waste of time to even bother doing analysis on the S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) this week. This “dead and drifting” market behavior often precedes a big increase in volatility, and my forecasting tools continue to show that this bullish move up is unsponsored and likely to fail. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

S&P 500 Posts Another Record Close On Friday

The S&P 500 rose slightly on Friday, climbing +0.2% to post a new record closing high of 4,247.44, its second record close in a row to end the week. The NASDAQ advanced +0.4% to 14,069.42 with Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix all making gains, and the DOW gained 13.36 points or +.04% to 34,479.60.

As for the weekly results, the S&P 500 posted a +0.4% gain marking its third consecutive positive week. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ had the largest gains of the three major indexes, gaining +1.8% for the week and posting its fourth straight winning week in a row. Meanwhile, the DOW's struggles continued, with it falling -0.8% on the week. Continue reading "S&P 500 Posts Another Record Close On Friday"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 6/6/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500, (analyzed here using SPY has done pretty much what I posted in last week’s column.

“I suspect we will see a bullish whipsaw before any retest of the range lows can occur.”

This breakout isn’t well sponsored, so I would expect it to break out and then fail back down to the bearish side. I’m still not seeing the kinds of odds that I want in order to put on much new risk this week. I have one new opportunity to look at, but other than that I am still in a “risk-off” posture. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Options: 275 Trades and 5 Losses - 98% Win Rate

Deploying skill and caution when engaging in options trading can generate consistent monthly income while defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing return on investment. Options can augment portfolio appreciation across an array of different market scenarios. Over the past 13 months (May 2020 – May 2021) and 275 trades, a win rate of 98% was achieved with an average ROI per winning trade of 8.0% and an overall option premium capture of 85%.

The performance of an options-based portfolio demonstrates the durability and resiliency of options trading to drive portfolio results with substantially less risk via a beta-controlled manner. The options-based approach circumvented the September 2020, October 2020, and January 2021 sell-offs while outperforming/matching the S&P 500 over the 13-month post-pandemic bull run, posting returns of 58.2% and 61.8%, respectively (Figures 1-5).

Despite these results over the past 13-plus months and 275 trades, limitations and challenges come with any trading system. Specifically, acts of nature, legislative and regulatory actions can jeopardize option trades. Here, I will walk through the five trades that resulted in losses and the underlying reasons as to why these were beyond any remediation efforts. Legislative and regulatory risks are two areas that pose some of the greatest company-specific and/or sector-specific challenges.

Options
Figure 1 – Overall option tickers used from April 2020 – May 2021
Continue reading "Options: 275 Trades and 5 Losses - 98% Win Rate"

S&P 500 Post Fourth Straight Monthly Gain

The S&P 500 rose slightly on Friday in light trading heading into the long weekend to post its fourth straight monthly gain amid growing optimism over the U.S. economic recovery.

The S&P 500 ended the session up +0.1% to 4,204.11, sitting just 0.8% from its all-time record high. The DOW gained 64.81 points or +.19% 34,529.45, and the NASDAQ inched up +0.1% to close at 13,748.74.

Both the DOW and the S&P 500 advanced +0.9% and +1.1% last week, respectively, with both indexes breaking a two-week losing streak. The NASDAQ rose +2% to post its best weekly performance since April 9. Continue reading "S&P 500 Post Fourth Straight Monthly Gain"