It’s been a rollercoaster ride for investors in the Gold Miners Index (GDX), with the index starting the year up 24% only to find itself back at a negative year-to-date return. While this has led to disappointment among many investors, I believe that this complete retracement is a gift, and it's worth noting that the GDX is still massively outperforming other sectors despite the sharp reversal. However, the key when investing in gold miners is to buy quality, and it rarely pays to bet on turnarounds from the lower-quality or lower-priced names in hopes that they will play catch-up. In this update, we'll look at three sector leaders worthy of a closer look.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Eldorado Gold (EGO), and Maverix Metals (MMX) all provide exposure to the gold price but have little in common from a cost, scale, and jurisdictional standpoint. All three operate in very different jurisdictions and have costs ranging from $400/oz to $1,300/oz. From a size standpoint, Maverix produces as little as ~40,000 gold-equivalent ounces [GEOs] per annum on an attributable basis. In contrast, Eldorado Gold produces over 400,000 GEOs per year, and Agnico produces over 3 million ounces of gold each year. However, all three companies share one key trait: enviable organic growth. In a sector that lacks growth stories, with most being inorganic, these companies do not need a higher gold price to significantly increase cash flow per share looking out to FY2025.
Beginning with Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), the company is the 3rd largest gold producer globally and expects to produce 3.3 million ounces of gold in 2022 at all-in sustaining costs [AISC] between $1,000/oz to $1,050/oz. The company's 10+ mines are located in Canada, Australia, Finland, and Mexico, and the company has a large development that could add 700,000+ ounces per annum of production by 2030. Among the million-ounce producers, this jurisdictional safety is a rarity and is one reason that AEM is a favorite among funds, with 95% of production coming from Tier-1 ranked jurisdictions vs. Barrick Gold and Newmont at less than 60%, and Gold Fields at less than 50%. Continue reading "Three Gold Miners Trading At Deep Discounts" →