Don't Be Remiss - Start Buying Stocks

The coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic has pummeled stocks and has caused a complete collapse of the entire market. Broader indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones have lost over 20% of their value, while most individual stocks have lost 20%-70% of their market capitalization. Airlines, cruise lines, and casinos have been hit particularly hard. Other stocks have been hit due to the market-wide meltdown, and many opportunities have been presented as a result. I'd be remiss if I didn't use this unique opportunity to start buying stocks and take long positions in high-quality companies. Throughout this market sell-off, I have begun to take long positions in individual stocks, particularly in the technology sector and broad market ETFs that mirror the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones.

The Financial Crisis and 1987 Black Monday Comparators

The broader market sold off in a historic downward move as the coronavirus has spread outside of China throughout the rest of the world, effectively shutting down economic activity on a grand scale. During the last week of February, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 sank by 12% and 11% for the week, respectively. This marked the worst weekly performance since the financial crisis for the markets. The Dow posted its biggest one-day loss ever during the week and tumbled into correction territory, down more than 10% along with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

As the markets moved into March, the S&P 500 officially closed in a bear market on March 12th, down more than 26% from its record high set just last month. This ended the historic 11-year bull market run. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to more than 76 and hit its highest level since 2008 (Figure 1). On March 12th, The Dow Jones and S&P 500 had its worst drop since the 1987 "Black Monday" market crash, when it collapsed by more than 22% (Figure 2).

This market-wide meltdown is in response to the negative impact that COVID-19 will likely have on the global economy and corporate earnings. A wide array of companies have already issued warnings about their upcoming quarterly earnings. This placed a damper on the outlook for the markets, especially with rising concerns Continue reading "Don't Be Remiss - Start Buying Stocks"

Crude Oil Plunges -23%

Crude oil is trading below $20 after plunging over -23% on the final day of trading this week. In early trading, crude oil had been up trading higher, hitting a high of $27.89 before plummeting into the close. The reason for the plunge, social distancing, and border closings due to the coronavirus.

The coronavirus pandemic is demolishing crude oil demand in the United States as authorities encourage people to stay home and work from home while also discouraging domestic travel. Adding to that mandate is the closing of the U.S. - Canada, and U.S. - Mexico borders. Demand by the major economies in Europe, ranging from Italy, Spain, and France, are locked-down and unable to travel within their own countries and have advisories against traveling elsewhere. Continue reading "Crude Oil Plunges -23%"

MCO Blueprint vs. Coronavirus Crash

It's not every day that you see 2,000 point swings for the Dow Jones Industrial Average or multiple trading halts in one session. We are living in unprecedented times.

It's also not commonplace to see a trading strategy tested during a market crash, but that's exactly what happened when Trader Travis was recording the last video of a 3-part bonus series for MarketClub Options members.

While the MarketClub Options bonus training videos are normally reserved for members, we thought an early release of our April video was too important not to share.

In this video, you'll see how the Blueprint helped protect Travis' portfolio as the markets began to free-fall.

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So, did your strategy protect you like the MarketClub Options Blueprint did for Travis? Did your plan get you out in time and help you cut losses?

If you don't have a step-by-step blueprint to guide you safely through these crazy times, you need to check out MarketClub Options right now.

To find parts 1 and 2 of Travis' bonus series and the entire MarketClub Options Blueprint, visit us here - MarketClub Options.

Stay safe. Protect your portfolio. Stick with your plan.

Best,
The MarketClub Team


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The Yield Curve Steepens - Deflation To Inflation

This morning the 10/2yield curve is again steepening and that is the headliner and one of my two most important indicators (the 30-year yield Continuum being the other). But I thought I’d dust off a bunch of existing charts from my chart lists that tell their stories as indicated by the bond market to go along with said yield curve. But let’s begin with the headliner.

Is this just another bump as in 2016 (2nd chart) or is it a real steepener like 2007 (3rd chart)? After all that post-Op/Twist manipulated economic booming it is due, I can say that much.

yield curveyield curveyield curveyield curve

Everybody has the memo. Deflationary destruction it is! The yield curve (bottom) can steepen under either deflation or inflation. Right now it’s deflation hysteria… Continue reading "The Yield Curve Steepens - Deflation To Inflation"

Gold Update: That's It?

It’s really amazing to see how some people take a selfie every day from childhood and then compile a video from those photos to see the timeline of their life.

As gold reached all preset targets, hitting a new seven-year maximum of $1704, I think it’s an excellent time to contemplate the history of this large move up. I put the charts from the previous posts one by one to restore the timeline with my comments for you. Let’s start the time machine!

Chart 1. Global Monthly Chart Of 2016

Gold
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Four years ago, when the “Bulls Finally Took The Ball”, I posted a big map to share with you my view about a possible sizeable complex correction for gold to warn you of a time-consuming zigzag move. It was meant to become a real roller coaster with a big up and down move. It consists of two Fibonacci retracement areas. Green colored was set for the current move up. We almost reached 78.6% last week as price grew by $447 or 36% since that post in 2016. Continue reading "Gold Update: That's It?"