The Bond Yield Continuum And Gold

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Have you heard the news? US Treasury bonds are skyrocketing as it turns out there is no inflation amid a global central bank NIRP-a-thon and race to the currency bottom. Going the other way, our 30yr Treasury yield Continuum is burrowing southward.

If you check out yesterday’s post you’ll see proof that the 2018 NFTRH view that people should tune out the bond experts instructing BOND BEAR MARKET!! was 100% on target.

But today the din is coming from the opposite pole. Everywhere you look on the financial websites it’s now about tanking yields, decelerating growth, trade war damage, and deflation. Here is the 30-year bond yield (TYX), which is front and center in this hysteria (click the charts below for the clearest view). That is one impulsive looking drop.

30 year bond yield

But just as we warned that the precious metals move was a “launch” (not a blow-off as some were calling it) in June because it was at the beginning rather than the end of an extended move, we note that TYX is impulsively dropping into a potential climax. Everybody is on the opposite side of the boat they were on in H2 2018. That would be the BOND BEAR MARKET!! side of the boat with experts Gross, Gundlach, and company. Now amidst the current Armageddon (the SPX is after all down a whole 4% from its all-time high, he said sarcastically) backdrop, it’s all BOND BULL MARKET!! all the time.

Wash…

Rinse…

Repeat… Continue reading "The Bond Yield Continuum And Gold" →

Could Lithium Become The Best Performing Commodity

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Most investors know of the little car company called Tesla (TSLA) and how it is leading the industry in electric vehicles (EV’s). But what some may not know is that every single major car manufacturer around the world is attempting to compete with Tesla and produce EV’s themselves.

This increase in electric vehicle availability and production in the future is great for reducing carbon emissions caused by standard gas combustion engines. Furthermore, if the EV revolution takes hold like most believe it will, the impact on the oil markets will certainly be felt, but lower demand for one commodity will likely mean higher demand for another.

Lithium is a key component in the namesake battery, ‘lithium-ion-battery,’ which by the way, is currently the main battery used for high powered electronics and EV’s. While it's evident that small hand-held electronics (smartphones, tablets, laptops) continue to grow in popularity worldwide, those devices don’t require the same amount of lithium as what some predict the electric vehicle market will consume in just a few years.

In 2018 EV sales rose 81% over sales figures in 2017, this was primarily due to Tesla’s Model 3 hitting 139,000 units sold. The Model 3 had such a significant impact on the market due to its low cost, but still, highly fashionable appearance and other high-tech features and amenities that other lower-priced EV’s like the Toyota Prius and Nissan Leaf don’t offer.
The Model 3’s success shows that if you offer higher-end features and options in EV’s that consumers want, they will buy them. We recently saw Ford using a model of its Electric F 150 truck pull a 1.25-million-pound train. Tesla has shown models of its electric pickup truck, not to mention its Semi-truck electric vehicle.

With rapidly increasing numbers of EV’s being sold and now more options in terms of types of EV’s soon to hit the market, it's hard to see how the demand for lithium doesn’t increase in the coming years. Which is why now may be the best time to buy up some lithium-based Exchange Traded Funds and sit on them while other investors push the prices higher once they realize they missed the boat.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few lithium-based ETFs you can buy today. Continue reading "Could Lithium Become The Best Performing Commodity" →

Trade Tensions Sink Stocks

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. China's answer to the latest round of tariffs that President Trump announced last week was to let the Yuan, China's currency, slide below the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade fanning fears that it could further aggravate an ongoing trade war.

The Dow plunged more than 600 points a few different times today losing over -2%, while the S&P 500 sank over -2% and the Nasdaq dropped -3%. The three indexes are on pace to post their biggest-one day loss since May 13. The Nasdaq is on track to fall for a sixth straight session, which would be its longest losing streak since late 2016. The S&P 500 headed for a six-day losing streak as well. The major indexes have also fallen more than 5% from their record highs set last month.

Bitcoin has mounted a comeback that started last week and culminated with a new green weekly Trade Triangle being issued at $11,370.78 signaling a move back to a long position. Bitcoin is currently up +5% backing up its +14% move last week. Is Bitcoin the new haven for China?

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Trade Tensions Sink Stocks" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures settled last Friday in New York at 1,432 while currently trading at 1,448 up about $16 for the trading week experiencing a wild trading session yesterday having a $45 range rallying sharply on the close because the Trump administration is going to levy more tariffs on China.

Gold prices are trading above their 20 & 100 moving average as this is the strongest precious metal at the current time. I still believe higher prices are ahead. However, I am not involved. I do have bullish recommendations in platinum, silver, and copper as they all experiencing high volatility over the last several days.

Gold prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as clearly this trend is strong to the upside. However, for the bullish momentum to continue, we have to break the July 19th high of 1,467 as gold prices are right near a 6 year high.

The 10-year note is yielding 1.87% as I have a bullish recommendation in that market as that is helping fuel gold prices higher as European countries and Japan have negative interest rates so money flows are coming into gold and I don't think that situation is going to change anytime soon as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Hasbro (HAS) is fresh off Q2 2019 earnings after turning the corner and going on the offensive with a slew of revenue verticals and end markets. Hasbro has its Disney toy licensing deal (Marvel, Star Wars and Disney Princess lines), Hasbro Studios (Transformers’ Bumblebee, My Little Pony, Power Rangers), E-Sports (Dungeons and Dragons and Magic: The Gathering) and reinventing its legacy games (Monopoly and Nerf) while driving newer products (Beyblades). Hasbro blew out expectations for its Q1 2019 earnings and the stock jumped 16%, breaking out above the $100 threshold, a level that hadn’t seen in over 6 months. This was followed up with its recent Q2 2019 earnings that blew away investors and the stock jumped 9% to all-time highs of over $120 per share.

Hasbro has set the post-Toys-R-Us bankruptcy narrative and laid out a business roadmap for long term profitable growth across its brands. Hasbro has had the tough task of getting out in front of the Toys-R-Us bankruptcy and working its way through the glut of merchandise. This sentiment has been bolstered by positive commentary from its CEO that the company has effectively absolved itself of the Toy R Us related bankruptcy headwind. All of this, while being fully committed to returning value to shareholders via a combination of share buybacks and dividend payouts. Hasbro has a compelling future across its portfolio with many catalysts in the near and long-term time horizons. As this turn-around was unfolding, the previous two quarters weren’t a surprise considering the year-over-year comparisons were in the midst of the Toys-R-Us fallout while the company layered-in several growth initiatives. This recent 6-month run in the stock was... well, easy!

Q1/Q2 2019 Earnings Blowouts

Hasbro posted an unexpected profit for Q1 with EPS coming in at $0.32 against expectations of -$0.11, beating estimates by $0.32 per share. Revenue also came in much higher than expected with $732.5 million and beating estimates by 66.5 million. Q2 numbers were impressive as well, EPS came in at $0.78 against expectations of $0.28, beating estimates by $0.28 per share. Revenue beat expectations as well, coming in at $984.5 million (year-over-year growth of 9%), beating Wall Street estimates by $25.6 million (Figure 1). Continue reading "Hasbro's 52-Week High: Well, That Was Easy" →