Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019

Posted on by The INO.com Team

As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular its Semi Equipment sub-sector are front and center in forming our analysis about coming events. Excerpted from the January 20th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 535…

Semiconductor Sector – Watch the Early Bird in 2019

This one is special for me. I started my work life many moons ago as a participant with the Semi sector [circa 1983-1993], painfully learning first hand how violent the cyclical turns can be. Dialing ahead a couple decades, in January of 2013 NFTRH began a narrative that saw the then up-turning Semi Equipment bookings (this data is unfortunately no longer published) lead the sector, general manufacturing and eventually the whole raft of components that make up the economy into a cyclical upturn.

The prime Semi Equipment names we follow are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). Well over a year ago we used their failing leadership to the broad Semi sector as a leading indicator on the economy, and things finally came to a head in October 2018. We made note of how industry advocates have been lobbying hard for the Trump Administration to re-think its trade tariffs as relates to Semiconductors.

My question has been over the last year and still is… ‘is the Semi Equipment downturn a real cycle or just a cyclical interruption?’ Reference… Continue reading "Semiconductor Sector - Watch The Early Bird In 2019" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the February contract is currently trading lower by $10 at 1,282 an ounce as prices have been stuck between 1,290 / 1,300 over the last two weeks due to extremely low volatility. I have been recommending a bullish position from around the 1,252 level and if you are involved in that trade continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,278 as the chart structure is excellent, but for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the January 4th high of 1,300. I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and platinum as palladium has exploded to the upside once again today hitting another all-time high and that indeed is the leader out of this complex. I'm hoping that will start to bleed into the other precious metals. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher, and I still think a breakout above 1,300 is looming so continue to play this to the upside. I will be possibly looking to add more contracts if that situation occurs as the risk/reward would still be in your favor
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Bear Market Takes Down AMC - Buying Opportunity?

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC) has been mauled by the bear during the fourth quarter stock market rout along with the broader indices. Despite a record-breaking year at the box office for 2018, AMC saw its stock plummet from ~$20 to ~$12 per share or shedding 40% of its market value. The stock currently sits at ~$13.50 or still over 30% off its 52-week high representing a compelling buy in the backdrop of a record-setting year at the box office, robust slate of movies for 2019, rapidly growing loyalty program with over 600,000 members, a strong consumer, dividend yield of over 5% and accelerating revenue and EPS growth. AMC is reengaging the consumer via digital, mobile and loyalty program options, reformatting theaters to enhance the user experience and international expansion augmented by a healthy share buyback program.

Furthermore, AMC has established relationships with Facebook (FB) and Groupon (GRPN) to drive ticket sales to AMC theaters. The stock looks very attractive considering its depressed valuation, industry strength forecasted through 2019 coupled with a slew of company initiatives to drive the consumer experience. The long term growth narrative remains intact while revenue continues to grow at a healthy clip.

AMC Continues Improving Business – Q3 Earnings

AMC has been establishing firm footing of improving fundamentals across the entire enterprise which were highlighted during its latest earnings announcement for Q3 2018. For the first none months ending September 30th, total revenues increased 10.5% to $4,047.5 million. Admissions revenues grew 8.2% to $2,522.7 million while attendance increased globally by 4.1% and increased by 6.4% in the U.S. Food and beverage revenues increased 9.1% to $1,236.4 million and other revenues increased 46.5% to $288.4 million. AMC is poised to post company records for the full year 2018 in all revenue categories: admissions, food and beverage and other. Continue reading "Bear Market Takes Down AMC - Buying Opportunity?" →

Proposed China Deal Boosts Stocks

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market got a late morning boost when Bloomberg reported that a China deal may be close. China has offered to go on a six-year buying spree ramping up imports from the U.S., that move would reconfigure the relationship between the world's two largest economies, according to officials familiar with the negotiations.

By increasing goods imports from the U.S. by a combined value of more than $1 trillion over that period, China would seek to reduce its trade surplus, which last year stood at $323 billion, to zero by 2024. The officials asked not to be named as the discussions aren't public.

That news has propelled the major indexes to their highest levels of the week and capping off the fourth straight week of gains. The S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ will all post weekly gains of +2.9%. However, they still have some work to do to trigger new green monthly Trade Triangles.

China Deal

For the first time in four weeks, the U.S. dollar is posting a gain, currently standing at +.74%. The dollar was boosted by news of the China deal, positive manufacturing data showing the biggest gain in ten months, and comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. Williams called for "patience and good judgment" before raising rates, adding he expects "strong" and "healthy" economic growth for this year. Continue reading "Proposed China Deal Boosts Stocks" →

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, January 2019

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for January, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June at 2.806 billion barrels. It estimated an 8 barrel gain for December to 2.883 billion, 39 million barrels higher than a year ago.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise. At year-end, EIA projects ending the year with 2.951 million barrels, 68 million more than at the end of 2018.

EIA also extended its outlook through 2020 for the first time. It projects that stocks will build another 75 million barrels to end the year at 3.025 billion. That would push stocks into glut territory.

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Oil Price Implications

I performed a simple linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2008 through 2017. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 79 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, January 2019" →