Time For The Fed To Take It Easy

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor


The Fed’s June rate decision is coming up this week and the consensus bets are overwhelmingly tilting towards a rate hike. According to the CBOE Fed Funds rate probability chart, the probability the Fed will raise rates at the next meeting is 91.3%. Thus, suggesting that market participants are almost certain a rate hike is coming. Furthermore, there is also growing consensus that the Fed will also start trimming its balance sheet as early September. However, a deep dive into the mechanics of the US economy suggests that the Fed should ignore the consensus, and even its own outlook, and take a step back from tightening. And it all starts with the puzzling discrepancy between inflation and housing prices.

Home Prices Heat as Inflation Cools

Upon the surface, the latest fall in the US Core inflation rate, from 2.3%, four months ago to 1.9%, and the latest surge in US housing prices (as reflected by the Case-Shiller Index) present a somewhat puzzling divergence between the US inflation outlook and housing prices. Nonetheless, those two contradicting developments are closely intertwined, both to each other and to the Fed’s monetary policy. And, to illustrate the link between the two, we must dive into the US Treasury market. Continue reading "Time For The Fed To Take It Easy" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,271 an ounce while currently trading at 1,278. up about $7 for the trading week hitting a five-week high looking to retest the April 14th high of 1,300 in my opinion. The U.S dollar continues its bearish trend down another 45 points this afternoon helping push up the precious metals and especially gold, which looks very strong at the current time. If you are in a bullish position place your stop loss at the 10-day low at 1,250 as lower interest rates in the United States continue to support gold prices. Gold is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average is telling you that the short-term trend is higher as several terrorist attacks throughout the world over the last week or so continue to prop up prices despite the U.S stock market continuing to hit all-time highs. Both markets are going higher together which does not happen very often. However, this could be a special situation. If the $1,300 level is broken the next major level of resistance is last year's high around the 1,350 level so there could still be room to run to the upside and if you're involved make sure your risk 2% of your account balance on any trade as an exit strategy.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Job Growth Slows In May

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello MarketClub members everywhere. The markets continue to climb to record levels despite the Labor Department reporting that 138,000 jobs were created last month. These numbers were well below the expected 185,000. Wages also grew less than expected, with average hourly earnings rising at a 2.5 percent annualized rate. The unemployment rate, however, fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.

MarketClub's Mid-day Market Report

Crude oil tumbled below $47 a barrel, heading for a second straight week of losses, on worries that President Donald Trump's decision to abandon a climate pact could spark more crude drilling in the United States, worsening a global oversupply.

Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Job Growth Slows In May" →

Facebook Will Hit $175 By Year End

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp are ubiquitous in this digital age of social, mobile and cloud dominance. Facebook and its properties have dominated the social media landscape posting robust growth in all metrics pertaining to user growth, engagement and monetizing of such metrics, the latter more specifically in the last 3-5 years. Facebook’s earnings growth has been tremendous and has accelerated over the past 4 years. EPS has increased from $0.02 at the end of 2012 to $3.56 at the end of 2016, posting a ~17,500% rise over that period. For a large capitalization company such as Facebook, this growth is very impressive. Judging by the previous 4 quarters, and more specifically its Q1 2017 quarterly results, this growth doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon while steamrolling rivals such as Snapchat (SNAP) in its path of growth (Figure 1). Facebook’s Q1 numbers continue to impress, posting revenue and EPS growth of 49% and 73%, respectively. Facebook doesn’t show any signs of letting up and makes acquisitions to drive the business now with Instagram and WhatsApp and into the future of virtual reality with Oculus. Factoring in its projected growth with tech comparators such as Google (GOOG), Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN), I’m predicting that Facebook with hit $175 by the end of the year with a lower P/E ratio than any of the stocks above. If Facebook hits the $175 mark, the stock will still be cheap on a relative basis. My prediction suggests an 18% upside from current levels. Continue reading "Facebook Will Hit $175 By Year End" →

Another 499% Gain In 18 Months On Tap?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Analysis originally distributed on May 24, 2017 By: Michael Vodicka of Cannabis Stock Trades

Investing in cannabis IPOs for the last few years has been extremely profitable.

Take Aphria Inc. (APHFQ), one of Canada's largest medical cannabis companies, for example.

Shares began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in October of 2015.

Now, just 18 months later, Aphria is up 499%. Take a look below.Daily Chart Aphria Inc. (APHFQ)

Shares did get off to a slow start. And from there it wasn't a straight shot higher.

But as you can see, investors who bought early in the game are sitting on the biggest gains. And looking forward, early investors will still be collecting the biggest profits because they have the lowest cost basis.

If you're interested in profiting from future cannabis IPOs, you're in luck. Continue reading "Another 499% Gain In 18 Months On Tap?" →