DOW Rallies To Another Record High

Hello traders everywhere. Once again the DOW has reached a record high, this time at the opening of trading then heading higher from there. The move higher marks the fifth straight day that the DOW has traded higher. The reason for the continued optimism? better-than-expected jobs creation last month.

Private payrolls increased by 230,000 in September, the most since February, according to a report from ADP and Moody's Analytics. Economists had expected a gain of 185,000. The report is often seen as a preview of the government's nonfarm payrolls report, which is set for release Friday morning.

DOW Rallies

Decreasing fears of a global trade war have helped boost the stock market as we start the fourth quarter of 2018. This week Canada joined a trade deal between the U.S. and Mexico (USMCA). The agreement grants U.S. dairy farmers access to the Canadian market, while Canada agreed to effectively cap automobile exports to the States.

Next up, China. Can President Trump get a deal worked out with the Chinese government?

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "DOW Rallies To Another Record High"

Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2933 while currently trading at 2924 lower by 9 points for the week as the volatility remains very low. I have been recommending a bullish position from the 2803 level and if you took that trade place the stop loss under the 10-day low which stands at 2883. However, in Tuesday's trade that will be raised to 2905 as the chart structure will turn outstanding at that time as I remain bullish, however for the trend to continue we have to break the September 21st high of 2947 as I still think that is in the cards possibly next week. Low-interest rates and great corporate earnings continue to propel prices higher although this week's small setback as this is still where all the interest lies as the holiday season is right around the bend and historically and seasonally speaking that is a bullish time for stock prices. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20-day moving average and far above its 100-day as this remains the strongest trend to the upside. The U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders, and if you take a look at crude oil prices, it broke $73 a barrel today as that tells you how well the economy is doing as strong demand for that commodity continues to push prices higher. I will be looking at adding more contracts to the upside once the risk/reward become better in your favor as that could happen on a sharply lower trading session so keep a close eye on this market.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery"

NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals

In honor of the men staring at silver’s daily chart, let’s highlight NFTRH 518’s Precious Metals segment this morning. We have 60% of the new trading week in the books and not much has changed for the PMs since this was written. You’ll notice that this man who stares at charts gets a little wordy at the end. There is much context that would-be gold bugs need to have in hand.

Precious Metals

Last week:

Here is how I see the precious metals situation. It’s one or the other of…

  1. US dollar declines short-term and the precious metals bounce with the rest of the anti-USD trade, or…
  2. US dollar rises (likely along with the Gold/Silver ratio) and the precious metals decline again into a real buying opportunity.

Thing 1 carried the day (week). I don’t care (well, actually I do but work with me here…) how many gold bugs leave the subscriber base while I am not able to give a long-term green light, but we are going to track the proper fundamentals, not the imaginary ones. And this bounce along with China, copper, global stocks, US stocks and everything else in the cyclical world is not proper. Not until all that crap tops out.

It. Is. A. Bounce… until it proves otherwise by seeing gold rise against CRB, SPX, ACWX and while we’re at it, global currencies.

So for now it’s just a bounce, and the [daily] Silver/Gold ratio did make a positive hint of Friday. Continue reading "NFTRH 518 Excerpt: Precious Metals"

Stocks Steady Ahead of Fed Announcement

Hello traders everywhere. Barring a surprise it's widely expected that the Federal Reserve will announce that they are going to raise rates by 25 basis points today, making this the eighth time it has tightened policy and raised rates since 2015. Fed officials will also present some revised projections for future rate moves along with their outlook for inflation, employment, and growth.

This week's two-day policy meeting could mark the formal end of the "accommodative" level of rates the Fed has used to support the American economy since the onset of the 2007-2009 recession.

fed

Crude oil has backed off its recent highs, the highest levels in almost for years, as Washington tried to assure consumers that the market would be well supplied before sanctions are re-imposed on producer Iran. The U.S. will apply sanctions to halt oil exports from Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), starting on Nov. 4. The pending loss of Iranian supply has been a major factor in the recent surge in crude prices. Many analysts believe that the loss of Iranian oil will push the price of oil to $100.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

Continue reading "Stocks Steady Ahead of Fed Announcement"

Is $100 Crude Oil In Our Future?

Hello traders everywhere. The big news of the day is that crude oil is trading 2% higher on the day and at a new four-year high breaking through the $72 a barrel level. The jump in price is because Saudi Arabia and Russia ruled out any immediate increase in production despite calls by President Trump for action to raise global supply in a tweet on Thursday where Trump said the "OPEC monopoly must get prices down now."

Many analysts believe that the crude oil producers such as OPEC can't compensate for the for U.S. sanctions on Iran's exports. Even if they increase output by 500,000 bpd, the overall oil market will still fall short by about 1.5 million bpd that Iran was producing.

crude oil producers

After setting new record highs the stock market ending last week on a weak note and that has continued into Monday. The reason? The trade war between the U.S. and China escalated with further tariffs and the cancellation of trade talks between the two countries.

The Wall Street Journal first reported late Friday that China had canceled talks with the U.S. on trade as both countries impose tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods. The two sides were set to meet to dial back tensions, but the Journal reported that China rescinded a proposal to send two delegations to Washington.

On Monday, a 10% U.S. levy on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods came into effect. The 10% rate is also set to rise to 25% by year-end. China has retaliated, targeting duties on more than 5,000 American goods worth a total of $60 billion.

Here are some key events coming up this week:

Continue reading "Is $100 Crude Oil In Our Future?"