Options: Generating Consistent Monthly Income

Generating consistent monthly income in a high probability manner in both bear and bull markets is the luxury of options trading. The core of options trading is defining risk, leveraging a minimal amount of capital, and maximizing returns. They enable smooth and consistent portfolio appreciation without guessing which way the market will move. An options-based portfolio performance demonstrates the durability and resiliency of options trading as a means to drive portfolio results.

An agile options-based portfolio is essential to navigate pockets of volatility and mitigate market downdrafts. The recent September correction, October nosedive, and election volatility into November are prime examples of why risk management is paramount. Despite the recent market volatility, positive returns in all three market scenarios were generated. Over the past 6-plus months, 171 trades were placed and closed. A win rate of 98% was achieved with an average ROI per trade of 7.6% and an overall option premium capture of 89% while matching returns of the broader market and outperforming during market downswings (Figures 1 and 2).

Options

Figure 1 – Overall option metrics from May 2020 – December 4th, 2020
Continue reading "Options: Generating Consistent Monthly Income"

Is Fed "Independence" Dead?

For the better part of the past four years, we've had to listen to the chattering classes defending the sanctity of the independence of the Federal Reserve. President Trump was routinely lambasted for constantly criticizing Jerome Powell, while several of his other nominees to the Fed, such as Herman Cain and Steven Moore, were deemed to be too cozy to Trump to warrant consideration. Both of them withdrew their nominations for other reasons, but it appeared that their nominations were DOA. For the same reason, the confirmation of the "controversial" Judy Shelton looks like it is going to die on the vine because she's been portrayed as Trump's lackey.

Yet now we have the prospect of Janet Yellen, the former chair of the Fed, being nominated as Joe Biden's Secretary of the Treasury. If nothing else, that will basically put the nail in the coffin of the notion of Fed independence. Does anyone seriously doubt that the Treasury and the Fed will be joined at the hip when the two most recent Fed chairs head those two agencies?

Yet that prospect probably won't be an impediment to her being confirmed by the Senate—on the contrary. The markets greeted Yellen's nomination with absolute euphoria, as well they should. The prospect of the Treasury and the Fed working more closely together in a time of crisis is certainly a reason for optimism. And it's certainly good for my portfolio, so I'm not complaining. But lost in all of the jubilation is that the idea of Fed independence has gone by the wayside, and nobody seems to give a hoot.

This is certainly not a bad thing. The whole idea of Fed independence was always suspect. The Fed is no more independent than the FBI or the Energy Department. It's just another branch of the government that arguably should always work in tandem with the Treasury for the betterment of the U.S. economy and usually does. Yet someone created this fiction that the Fed is somehow the moral equivalent of the Supreme Court and above politics. Continue reading "Is Fed "Independence" Dead?"

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Could Santa Only Visit Gold?

We entered the most awaited period of the year when gold bugs could enjoy the traditional end of the year Santa Claus Rally. Let's check the charts to see if everything is setting up for a rally.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Most of you were right that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will not follow the pink clone to the upside and continue down.

The DXY finally broke the valley of a consolidation. This gave the acceleration to the move down and buoyed the precious metals' prices significantly. Now, there are no other barriers ahead of the former valley area of 88. The DXY, aka "King," could dress up like a Santa, at least for gold. Please read till the end to see why I didn't mention silver. Continue reading "Could Santa Only Visit Gold?"

Futures Market Continues To Trend Higher

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.4380 a pound while currently trading at 3.5250, up about 900 points for the trading week as prices have now hit a 5 year high.

If you have been following my previous blogs, you understand that I'm not involved, but I am very bullish copper. We could go to the 400 in the coming weeks ahead as strong demand for housing continues to push copper prices to a multi-year high. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which now stands at 322 as an exit strategy. However, the chart structure will improve daily; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced tremendously.

At the current time, this by far is the strongest precious metal as we have now traded higher for the last 8 consecutive sessions with the next major level of resistance around the 360 level. That could be touched next week as I see no reason to be short copper or any commodities as I am bullish across the board, including stocks.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 22.63 an ounce while currently trading at 24.20 up about $1.60 for the week, still stuck in a 10-week consolidation. Continue reading "Futures Market Continues To Trend Higher"