That Precious Fed Independence

Well, what do you know? That precious Federal Reserve independence we keep hearing about turns out to be a crock.

That reality was exposed in the most blatant terms last week when William Dudley, just a year removed from his serving as the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York – the second most powerful position on the Fed, just below the chair – argued in a Bloomberg op-ed that the current Fed should do absolutely nothing to try to fix the economy if President Trump is hell-bent on destroying it through his tariff war with China. The Fed, he said, shouldn’t “bail out an administration that keeps making bad choices on trade policy, making it abundantly clear that Trump will own the consequences of his actions.”

But he went well beyond that, urging the Fed to use its monetary policy to help defeat Trump in the 2020 president election.

“There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview,” he said. “After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.”

Thank you, Mr. Dudley, for that admission. Some of us have suspected, Continue reading "That Precious Fed Independence"

Macro Implications, As Silver Takes Leadership From Gold

Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average – and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.

silver gold ratio

Okay, but the monthly chart of the Silver/Gold ratio makes abundantly clear that nothing has happened that has not happened before during the precious metals bear market. So that is the caveat to a macro thesis that would see a change to inflationary (as led by Silver/Gold), thereby letting commodities of all stripes and many global markets out of the barn. The monthly EMA 30 (grey dotted line) is a reasonable marker for the ratio’s post-2011 containment. The ratio’s price is below that marker. Continue reading "Macro Implications, As Silver Takes Leadership From Gold"

Disney: Premature Overzealous Sentiment

Disney (DIS) ran too far, too fast prior to its recent earnings announcement that fell short of investors' overzealous expectations this early in the company's transformation. Disney's growth rotation is still in its early stages with the remediation of its ESPN property and flurry of growth initiatives to meet modern-day media consumption trends via streaming. In the backdrop, the company continues to dominate the box office year after year with a long pipeline of blockbusters in the queue. Additionally, its Parks and Resorts continue to be a growth avenue with tremendous pricing power. Disney is going all-in on the streaming front and will inevitably acquire full ownership of Hulu, and the company is launching its Disney branded streaming service that will compete directly with Netflix. I've been behind Disney for a long time, especially through this transition back to growth when the stock traded below $100 and I still feel that the company offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity given its growth catalysts that will continue to bear fruit over the coming years.

Disney's Q3 Earnings Fell Short

Disney's Q3 earnings fell short of analysts' expectations, which have become overzealous as of late with all of the company's initiatives resonating with investors and analysts alike. Disney missed on both the top-line revenue and bottom-line profit. EPS came in at $1.35, missing by $0.39 per share and revenue came in at $20.24 billion, missing by $1.16 billion. Disney's business across the board came in strong, posting growth in every category. Revenue by segment: Media Networks, $6.71B (up 21%); Parks, Experiences and Products, $6.6% (up 7%); Studio Entertainment, $3.84B (up 33%); Direct-to-Consumer and International, $3.86B (up from $827M). Operating income by segment: Media Networks, $2.14B (up 7%); Parks, Experiences and Products, $1.7B (up 4%); Studio Entertainment, $792M (up 13%); Direct-to-Consumer and International, -$553M.

"Our third-quarter results reflect our efforts to effectively integrate the 21st Century Fox assets to enhance and advance our strategic transformation". "I'd like to congratulate The Walt Disney Studios for reaching $8 billion at the global box office so far this year--a new industry record--thanks to the stellar performance of our Marvel, Pixar and Disney films. The incredible popularity of Disney's brands and franchises positions us well as we launch Disney+, and the addition of original and library content from Fox will only further strengthen our direct-to-consumer offerings."
- Bob Iger, CEO of Disney

Expectations were too high at this point in Disney's business transformation, and the realization of these financial benefits will require patience. Continue reading "Disney: Premature Overzealous Sentiment"

Market Set For Second Losing Month Of The Year

Hello traders everywhere. What a wild month! A trade war, a yield inversion curve and a rate cut by the Fed have led to an extremely volatile month, and while we will finish the last week of August in the green with weekly gains, overall we will finish the month of August in the red, the second losing month of the year. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ will all lose over -1.5% with the NASDAQ leading at a -2.7% loss for the month.

Crude oil and Bitcoin joined in on the losing party by losing -5.48% and -4.9% respectfully on the month. The Dollar Index checks in with a slight gain of +.03% or unchanged for the month as it has found resistance at the $98 level. And that leaves us with the one bright spot, gold, which had a gain of +7.8% on the month trading above $1,550 at one point for the first time in a LONG time. Can gold's move higher continue? Is it a sign of things to come?

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Market Set For Second Losing Month Of The Year"

US Oil Production Is 19+ Million Barrels A Day

The oil market is fixated on U.S. crude oil production. As shown in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (see table below), domestic production averaged 12.107 million barrels per day in the year-to-date, up 14.6% v. the same period in 2018.

Crude Oil

However, included within petroleum liquids supply is “Other Supply.” That figure is 6.885 million barrels per day in the year-to-date, up 8.9%, year-over-year. Continue reading "US Oil Production Is 19+ Million Barrels A Day"