Gold Stocks Acting As They Should

The macro has moved through a time of moderately rising inflationary concerns when economies were cycling up, many commodities were firm and risk was ‘on’. Contrary to the views of inflation-oriented gold bugs, that was not the time to buy gold stocks.

As I have belabored again and again, the right time is when the inflation view is on the outs, gold is rising vs. stock markets, the economy is in question, risks of a steepening yield curve take center stage (the flattening is so mature now that steepening will be a clear and present risk moving forward) and by extension of all of those conditions, confidence declines.

Well?…

gold stock sector

In short, the improving sector and macro fundamentals I’ve been writing about for a few months now continue to slam home as the cyclical world pivots counter-cyclical. And what do you know? Gold stocks are reacting as they should. Well, it’s about time, guys!

The technicals had already made some constructive moves as noted in an NFTRH subscriber update on December 4th. The update concluded as follows… Continue reading "Gold Stocks Acting As They Should"

Treat Yourself To An Early Christmas Gift

The Christmas season can be a time that makes or breaks a retailer's entire year. With that being said, most investors already know this information. It's not typical for a retailer's stock to experience a major pop or drop around the holiday season just because of revenue and earnings were three times that of the previous quarter.

But most reports currently indicate the American Consumer is healthy and feeling good. Which would indicate this holiday shopping season could be a record-setting year regarding the amount of money spent buying holiday presents. And a record-setting year is the type of event that would make a retailer’s stock pop. A large year-over-year revenue and earnings beat is the type of performance that Wall Street likes and rewards with a higher share price.

One report, in particular, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was unchanged in November and remained higher thus far in 2018, at a 98.4, then in any prior year since 2000. Furthermore, the report indicates "income expectations have improved, and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment." "The renewed strength in nominal income expectations is critical to overall spending prospects. Among the working age population, those between the ages of 25 and 54, the anticipated annual gain in nominal household income was 3.6% in November, the best in the past decade" per the November report.

If the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is correct, we could be in for some really big number this holiday season. That being said, to fully realize the share price increase, it is best to buy the retailers before early holiday shopping reports are released. Obviously, by doing so, you take the risk of this year being an average or poor shopping season, but if you’re willing to take that risk, it could pay off nicely this year.

So, let's take a look at a few of the Exchange Traded Funds that you could purchase if you want to attempt to ride the retail waved this holiday season. Continue reading "Treat Yourself To An Early Christmas Gift"

"Harbinger Of Doom": Amigo 3 In Play, But Real Doom Awaits

“The Harbinger of Doom”? Of course, we (well, the media) are talking about the yield curve AKA Amigo #3 of our 3 happy-go-lucky riders of the macro. I have annoyed you repeatedly with this imagery in order to show that three important macro factors needed to finish riding before a situation turns decidedly negative.

Amigo 1: SPX (or stocks in general)/Gold Ratio

Amigo 2: 30 Year Treasury Yield

Amigo 3: Yield Curve

In honor of Amigo 3’s arrival to prime time let’s have a good old fashioned Amigos update (going in reverse order) and see if we can annoy a few more people along the way.

yield curve

Yield Curve

Clicking the headline yields a Bloomberg article all about various yield curves and all the doomed news  you can use, including a hyperactive interview with an expert bringing us all up to speed on the situation. Continue reading ""Harbinger Of Doom": Amigo 3 In Play, But Real Doom Awaits"

Gold Stocks Couldn't Beat Gold

One year ago I shared with you the similar dynamics of the top gold stocks ranked by ROE. There were five tickers: ABX (Barrick Gold), SBGL (Sibanye Gold), IAG (IAMGOLD), GSS (Golden Star) and HMY (Harmony Gold Mining). I want to update on their price dynamics to show you which of your bets played out after one year.

Before we get down to the results, below is the distribution of votes for each stock for you to recall those bets.

gold stocks

For the second time in a row, the majority of you bet on Barrick Gold (ABX) despite that this company was among the top losers a year ago. Another interesting fact is that the Golden Star (GSS) was the least favorite, although it had shown the best result last time. This is what we call mysterious investors’ sentiment.

Chart 1. Gold Stocks Vs. Gold: Unmatched

gold stocks
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "Gold Stocks Couldn't Beat Gold"