Is Another All-Time High Ahead For Palladium?

Before we start to analyze the mighty metal, I would like to mention that the crude oil futures Buy Setup was triggered last Friday as the futures price broke above $52.25. Please mind the risk if you trade and I wish you good luck there.

Now let’s get down to the metal. Earlier this year, we pushed a new Pendulum with regular champ palladium on board. Before you bet for Pendulum winner, I tailor charts for pitted instruments and so I did for palladium using the daily time frame. The outlook was quite ambitious as the bullish target was set at $2140 while the price was hovering around the $1900 level. The majority of you chose the former winner palladium as a new winner again against the logic of the experiment and I don’t blame this choice as this precious metal hits all charts amid strong demand. That target was reached within a week after the post had been published.

I detected a promising pattern on the daily palladium chart and I would like to share it with you as it still emerges.

Chart courtesy of

Palladium futures hit the all-time high at $2427 on the 23rd of January. It’s quite natural that the correction followed as traders have booked profits after the price reached another record. Continue reading "Is Another All-Time High Ahead For Palladium?"

Pendulum Swing #9: Palladium Vs. Gasoline

2020 has kicked off, and it is time to see where the earlier Pendulum swing #8 has stopped to check if it worked properly. To remind you, we had pitted gasoline against natural gas and below are your bets for that experiment.


Bingo! The majority of you bet it right choosing Natural gas as a winner, and as you can see in the next chart that it has lost 5.42% as gasoline has dropped more than 10% to top the losers’ camp. I want to express my gratitude to those who chose the experiment success option for your trust! So, after the earlier failure in the first half of 2019 (7th swing), the Pendulum experiment is back on a winning track! We got only 2 failures out of 8 experiments now. Let’s push it again and see what happens.

Half Year Futures Performance (Second Half Of 2019)

Chart courtesy of

The regular champion and the buzz maker palladium has topped the chart again for the past half of the year as it scored the most with more than 24% gain. On the other side of the scorecard, there is the former champion gasoline, which failed to perform in the earlier contest. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing #9: Palladium Vs. Gasoline"

Why Oil Is At $50 With An Inventory Glut

Robert Boslego - Contributor - Energies

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil inventories are about 425 million barrels higher than their “normal” levels. In the U.S., inventories stand a 1.368 billion barrels, a few million off their recent peak. Given that supply glut, how could oil futures prices be at $50 after falling below $30?

U.S. Crude and Product Stocks

One answer is that the futures market assesses future developments. As discussed below, the peak of the glut appears behind us and the U.S. oil market is tightening, as rising demand narrows the supply-demand gap. This is best observed by looking at the trends in inventory storage changes for both petroleum products and crude oil. Continue reading "Why Oil Is At $50 With An Inventory Glut"

15 Hand-Picked Charts to Help You See What's Coming in the Markets

Everyone uses gas: See this chart that shows why its price is heading lower

By Elliott Wave International

Have you ever seen price charts that tell a story clearly? Here is a perfect example from Robert Prechter's most recent monthly publication, The Elliott Wave Theorist.

By combining headlines from newspapers with the price chart for retail automotive gasoline, Prechter paints a clear picture -- that you can see for yourself -- as to why gas prices will probably go much lower.

Prechter chose 14 more charts like this one to explain to his subscribers where the f Continue reading "15 Hand-Picked Charts to Help You See What's Coming in the Markets"

Traders, Are Commodity ETFs Fueling the Energy Spike?

In today's Guest Blog spot, I decided to contact Chuck E. Cash from I wanted to get his thoughts and insight on what he thought about the current commodity markets, with Crude and Gasoline as the specific targets. Take a look below and enjoy!


It's hard not to notice the rally cries coming out of the political parties lately. Each side has their "solution" for the energy problem. The left wants windfall profit taxes and investigations. The right wants a tax holiday and more drilling.

Lately I've been wondering, are the spat of energy ETFs partly to blame?

Conceptually, the energy ETFs should create a more liquid (and thus more perfect) market. But I am starting to have my doubts.

For those unfamiliar with these commodity ETFs, let me explain who they are and how they work.

The first US traded energy ETF, USO, was introduced just 2 years in April 2006. This was the first in a series of unique ETFs whose assets were held in futures and options contracts. Specifically, they seek to track the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. These funds also invest in futures contracts for other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels.

This is in sharp contrast to previous commodity ETFs such as GLD, which is backed by some 600+ tonnes of the gold.

Since USO was introduced, other petroleum tracking ETFs have followed.
The aptly named OIL opened August 15 2006.
UCR opened November 29, 2006.
In January 2007 Deutsche Bank introduced DBO and DBE.
And the newest member, UGA which just started trading Feb 26 2008, tracks gasoline futures.

So what's wrong with all these ETFs? Why would they drive up energy prices?

IMO, the commodity ETFs have contributed in 2 key ways.
1. They have allowed casual investors to participate

Futures trading is frequently described as both risky and sophisticated. No doubt, this is because futures are traded on margin, which creates huge profit and loss swings in a short period of time.

By packaging the futures into an ETF though, many participants now see it as a type of stock and behave accordingly. They are willing to buy and hold. They are able to sit through a $14 down turn believing their asset will rebound.

2. They create a new entity, a tracker.

For close to 2 centuries futures markets worked with three types of participants - producers, users, and speculators. These new ETFs have added a 4th entity, a tracker whose sole role is to mimic price movements. Now the traditional players must compete with this new tracker for shares of the same asset. Demand for the contracts has grown while the supply of contracts has not. As we all know, when demand outpaces supply, prices go up.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a capitalist pig no doubt. And I don't think closing these ETFs is a panacea. But I do believe they are exacerbating the spike.

So traders I ask, what do you think?
Are these ETFs helping to create a perfect market that reflects a fear of peak oil?
Or, are they creating a new type of speculation that is contributing to the spike in energy prices?

Chuck E. Cash from