Pendulum Swing No.6: Input Error

Another half of a year passed with a new year starting its track. It is time to see the result of the 6th Pendulum swing started in the middle of 2018. To remind you, we had pitted the VIX against sugar and below are your bets for that experiment.

Pendulum

You are the best readers I could only dream of as you support my experiment with your real votes for the success of it.

Let’s see which instrument won at the end of the year.

Chart 1. Half Year Futures Performance (Second Half Of 2018)

Pendulum
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

As we can see from this half-year, performance chart sugar couldn’t beat the VIX, which dominated the futures market by a huge margin throughout 2018. One can think that the experiment failed this time, but in my opinion, we have the wrong selection of one input. I am talking about the VIX. The thing is that the underlying asset of these futures is not a commodity, but the “Fear index” or the indicator of the risk approach. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing No.6: Input Error"

Pendulum Experiment Result: Success! One More?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Here we are! The experiment came to its final stage - the summary. Almost eight months ago we put two completely different instruments on the starting line in an exciting competition, which should have proved or refuted the assumption of the ‘pendulum effect’. The Japanese Nikkei index was a top performing instrument in November 2015 with +13% gains while Palladium was the top losing metal with -24% losses.

Chart 1. Voting results November 2015: The Majority Bet On The Success Of The Experiment!

Chart 1. INO.com Voting results November 2015

Above is the screenshot of the ballot results for the experiment. Most of you bet on Palladium winning, which means the success of the experiment, and you were absolutely right dear readers!!! Congratulations! And thank you for the support of the experiment! See the chart below for the confirmation. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment Result: Success! One More?"

Pendulum Experiment Snapshot: Promising Progress

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Last November I brought an experiment to your attention based purely on the laws of physics. I called it the "Pendulum experiment." The idea of it was to pick the strongest and the weakest asset by performance in 2015 and to check if they will move back like a pendulum and exchange their performance position relative to each other – the weakest will become stronger, the strongest will become weaker.

Just to refresh your memory: the Nikkei index was the top performer and Palladium was the weakest metal (YTD November 2015). I want to express my gratitude for the active participation in voting; the results are in the graph below.

Chart 1. Nikkei vs. Palladium Voting Results:

Poll Results INO.com
Poll results courtesy of INO.com

The odds were in favor of Palladium with a margin of 5 votes (8%). It was almost a split even bet and we have another couple of months to see the final results. Now let us check the current progress of the assets as we passed the halftime period. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment Snapshot: Promising Progress"

Pendulum Experiment: The Weakest Metal Vs. The Strongest Future

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Dear readers, I hope things are good if you are short both top precious metals as per my Gold and Silver updates and you are enjoying the rising gains. As nothing unforeseen has been happening, let us do an experiment.

Do you know what a pendulum is and what the effect it has on an instrument? When something moves one way and then swings back and we push it harder forward, it will move back deeper for the distance that is equal to the distance between equilibrium and the forward point. Swings and waves are a normal part of our everyday life, and that is true for the markets as well. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment: The Weakest Metal Vs. The Strongest Future"

Palladium's Weakness Is Corrective And Temporary

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today I prepared an absolutely different look at the Palladium technicals.

Monthly Chart: Palladium Has Halted On The Way Up To $1200

NYMEX:EOD:PAL!
Chart courtesy of TradingView.com

Palladium has been a top performing metal among the precious metals for the past decade. It's the only precious metal to make a new high in 2014 while the others peaked in 2011 and the only metal to build record ETF inventories.

As seen on the above monthly chart, the metal price has shown quite simple zigzags with vertical soaring during the period between 1977 and 2001. Palladium had flown sky-high to $1090 level and then it had fallen in 2002 down to the $145 mark, giving back almost all of its gains. Indeed, it was a bubble burst. Continue reading "Palladium's Weakness Is Corrective And Temporary"