Tag: technical analysis

S&P 500: Exhausted?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Last month I shared with you my concern about the possible reversal of the index in spite of the solid gain booked earlier. The chart of the S&P 500 spoke for itself, showing a weakness in the structure of the move up. The angle of the uptrend was too gentle to sustain. And the finishing punch came from the RSI indicator, which had an invisible Bearish Divergence on its chart.

We never know what the future will bring us, although this time the geometry of the double resistance worked just perfect as I assumed another spike to that area of $2860 before a reversal in my earlier post. Bingo! The index peaked right in that area at the $2863 and then collapsed. This is further proof of the magic power of the trends.

Chart: S&P 500 Daily: Watch Support After The Failure At The Resistance

SP 500 Exhausted
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This is an updated chart above, which reflects the market changes and shows the outlook of the possible upcoming behavior of the S&P 500. Continue reading "S&P 500: Exhausted?" →

S&P 500: Not A Rocket!

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Back in May, I posted the alert about the upcoming rally of the index in case of the breakup of the triangular consolidation. Indeed, the S&P 500 already booked more than a 100 points gain from that day ($2679) but what I see in the chart now is not inspiring me these days.

Below is the new daily chart where I made the annotations to express my concerns.

S&P 500 Daily Chart: The Index Loses Steam Within A Possible Large Complex Correction

S&P 500 Daily Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

First of all, let me tell you why I gave the title “Not A Rocket” to this post. Usually, a good rally has a sharp angle of the trend, and anyone could easily identify it with the naked eye. This is what I was looking forward to giving the title for the earlier post using the proverbial phrase “Fasten Your Seatbelts.” Continue reading "S&P 500: Not A Rocket!" →

Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Canadian Dollar


At the end of last month, I called for a substantial upcoming weakness in crude oil as the market could have finished the long-lasting consolidation after the earlier crash from 100+ levels. Indeed, oil lost almost $4 from that time and now is rebounding as markets naturally move in zigzags.

Oil-related currencies also suffer, and in this post, I would like to share with you an exciting chart setup with tremendous profit potential for one of such currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also known as “Loonie” among traders.

Before that, I built a chart to demonstrate the correlation between WTI crude oil and the Canadian Dollar.

Chart 1. WTI futures Vs. Canadian dollar futures: Perfect Correlation

Canadian Dollar
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In the chart above the WTI futures graph is black on the right scale and the Canadian Dollar futures graph (in US$ per 1 CAD) is red on the left scale. I didn’t add any annotations on the chart as you can clearly see that the correlation is just perfect and the most important fact is that the crucial market phases like strong moves and consolidations coincide in time. The Canadian Dollar tends to overshoot WTI amid market strength, but it is quite moderate during market weakness. Continue reading "Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar" →

Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Sell In May And Go Away


Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Sell In May And Go Away
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?" →

Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Silver


I hadn't updated the silver chart since February when I warned you that the metal dangerously approaches the support of the Triangle pattern. After that, I posted a gold update as I found an amazing historical similarity there.

There’s been so much water under the bridge since February, but nothing had changed in the precious metals markets until the end of last month when the crucial trigger was pulled.

Below is an updated chart of the silver that I would like to share with you these days as it contains an excellent trading opportunity.

Silver Weekly Chart: Triangle Was Broken Down

LLLL
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Silver could escape from that troubled situation which I pointed out in February as the price briefly punctured the downside of the Triangle pattern (orange) and then happily reversed higher on the back of broad dollar weakness. Continue reading "Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss" →