Silver Monthly: Symmetric Triangle

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


It’s amazing how an updates’ timing can coincide with an interesting chart pattern that’s shaping up or trendline reactions. This time I spotted a Symmetric Triangle pattern as I was preparing this monthly update. I am happy to share it with you in the chart below.

Chart 1. Silver Monthly (Zoomed): Symmetric Triangle

Silver Monthly ChartChart courtesy of tradingview.com

The market got stuck for more than one year inside of the black Symmetric Triangle pattern. It shows that neither bulls nor bears could change the balance of the market as price volatility on the monthly chart faded and we reached the apex of the triangle where the trendlines converge. Continue reading "Silver Monthly: Symmetric Triangle"

Gold Faces Multi-Year Resistance Again

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Monthly charts show major price development and are crucial in determining the long-term trends. It is slow to change and I update it once the price reaches the important level or makes a breakout or reversal. The last time I updated the monthly chart was last August when the price reached the multi-year trendline resistance.

I had assumed three possible scenarios of price action and the least interesting second scenario of consolidation plan worked. I had set the margins of consolidation within the $1100-1400 range and some readers thought it was too wide, but as you can see now it played out perfectly – the actual range is $1122-1367 for the past period.

The trendline resistance falls lower and lower in the long run and now the price meets it again. That’s why added an updated monthly chart below.

Chart. Gold Monthly: Crossroads

Monthly Gold ChartChart courtesy of tradingview.com

This time we have the same situation as in the past year. Last July the price had tried to push through the black resistance line, but failed and there was hope that in the next month the breakup could be done and we all know what happened next. Last month the price also tried to overcome the barrier but failed. Nevertheless, the hope is still there as always in such situations. This month’s candle tells us that the price first dropped down from the open at $1267 to $1214 low and is now reversing losses and is yet to cover them all. Continue reading "Gold Faces Multi-Year Resistance Again"

Gold Bugs Should Think About Buying Stocks

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Some things become more obvious when you change your point of view. Some decisions are easier to make when we change the measure of value. And today I would like to share with you the gold bug’s view of the stock market.

Chart 1. The S&P 500 Monthly In Grams Of Gold

S&P 500 Monthly In Grams Of Gold
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The chart above represents the price dynamics of the S&P 500 in grams of gold. I used grams not ounces to make the chart more readable. You can do the same by dividing the S&P 500 value to the price of gold in troy ounces and then multiplying it by 31.1035. Continue reading "Gold Bugs Should Think About Buying Stocks"

Silver Update: The Backup Plan

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In this post I’ve updated the charts to reflect the recent dramatic changes in the silver market.

Chart 1. Silver Weekly: Triple Support

Weekly Silver Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

On the weekly chart above, there is a mixture of reconstructed trend lines (gray lines) set in the previous update and newly added lines, which highlight the important support levels nearby.

The silver price has passed the double support (gray former resistance + gray support) set at the $17.5 mark like a hot knife through butter two weeks ago. The three red bearish weekly candles from the top erased all of the earlier gains and even broke below the previous low at the $16.84 mark. Continue reading "Silver Update: The Backup Plan"

Copper Could Face Strong Headwinds From China and Australia

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Copper topped the ranks at the end of last year and moved north to the middle of February without breaking any serious resistance peaking at $2.8230. Then the price drifted lower, closer to the area of the December 2016 low at $2.4480 as projected in my previous update. Copper has now bounced higher and I would like to share with you some new data, which could change my outlook for the metal.

I would like to start from Chinese data as they are the top importer of the metal in the world. China’s copper import dropped almost 20% in 1Q of 2017 according to the Chinese customs statistics and this is not supporting the pricing information. Below are two charts to show you more headwinds from China.

Chart 1. Copper Vs Chinese GDP Growth Rate (Quarterly)

Chinese GDP vs. Copper
Chart courtesy of tradingeconomics.com

The Chinese economy (left scale, blue) advanced only 1.3 percent in the 1Q of 2017, following a 1.7 percent growth in the previous three months and missing market estimates of a 1.6 percent growth. It has been the weakest expansion since the 1st quarter of 2016. GDP Growth Rate in China averaged 1.84 percent from 2010 until 2017. Continue reading "Copper Could Face Strong Headwinds From China and Australia"