Category: INO.com Contributors

What's Really Happening With The Japanese Yen?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The Japanese Yen is making headlines, again. The Dollar-Yen trade pierced through the 110 support level and the Bank of Japan's credibility is at stake. It's only a matter of time before the BoJ swings its "sword" and slice rates again, or at least, so it seems. But while Yen strength has caused quite a stir in Japan, its origins, this time around, are rooted elsewhere.

Wall Street is flat, European bourses are falling and China isn’t out of the woods just yet. Japanese corporates keep hoarding cash and, of course, they need to park it somewhere. That “somewhere” is their default choice; i.e. repatriate the cash and buy into the safety of Japanese Government Bonds.

Chart of the Japanese Yen
Chart courtesy of Bloomberg Press

As illustrated in the chart, when comparing the Bloomberg Japan Sovereign Bond Index with S&P500 and Nikkei 225, demand for Japanese Government Bonds has been strong. Japanese Government Bonds beat both the S&P500 and the Nikkei 225 for the passing year. And that’s even more interesting when you consider the negative yields—it actually costs to hold Japanese Government Bonds.

How long can Japanese corporates keep repatriating funds and pay for the "privilege" to hold Japanese Government Bonds? Continue reading "What's Really Happening With The Japanese Yen?" →

Disney - A Very Attractive Inexpensive Growth Stock

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Disney offers an array of world renowned franchises (Star Wars, Pixar, Marvel, ESPN and the Disney offerings) that offer a deep and well-diversified product portfolio. This portfolio gives rise to a basket of entertainment income streams via movies, licensing deals, theme parks, TV programing, resorts and distribution rights. Disney stock has been under pressure as of late due to increasingly worrisome revenue declines from the ESPN franchise. I feel this decline in the stock is unwarranted and analysts underestimate the ability of Disney to evolve to the consumer and monetize ESPN via other means. The generational penetration of the Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar and the legacy Disney franchises are being underestimated and undervalued. Disney has witnessed fantastic growth over the last decade and considering future catalysts in the pipeline; Disney appears undervalued. Disney currently sits at a P/E of 18 along with a PEG of 1.5 and has seen its stock fall from $122 to a current price of $96 or alternatively a 21% decline. This presents a great buying opportunity in an inexpensive, high-quality growth stock.

Future Growth and Pipeline

Disney has a rich pipeline with Star Wars themed parks, Star Wars movies, the opening of Disney Shanghai, Marvel movies, Pixar movies and future Disney movies such as Finding Dory to highlight a few. The deep movie portfolio and distribution schedule is highlighted below (Figure 1). Continue reading "Disney - A Very Attractive Inexpensive Growth Stock" →

Gold And Oil Breakout: We Can Benefit!

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


In my earlier posts I showed you how gold and crude oil broke out of their trends. Gold moved higher amid an oil break down. The simplest trade here is the purchase of gold on the dip and the sale of oil on pullbacks. Today I want to share with you some other options. We can use oil related currencies instead of oil as they tend to lag and overreact to oil moves.

Chart 1. Gold Vs. Russian Ruble Weekly: Say Hi To A New High!

Gold Vs. Russian Ruble Weekly Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The currency of the world largest country stopped strengthening only last Friday despite that oil reversed much earlier. I call this an overreaction of the currency to the oil move. I guess it’s all about the mechanical reaction of retail USDRUB sellers to the ruble and oil strength which was gone long before they started to act. Usually, non-professional players tend to sell bottoms and buy tops on market panic. Another good thing in this market is that while the ruble was strengthening gold pulled back down, giving potential buyers extra bonuses (falling gold + overreacting ruble).

The Gold/RUB pair has been in an uptrend for 2 years. At the start of 2016 the market it broke out of the triangle above the RUB 78K level and then rapidly moved higher. It topped beyond 2015 high at RUB 101,858 level in February. Continue reading "Gold And Oil Breakout: We Can Benefit!" →

Oil And Trump Both Need To Pause And Catch Their Breath

Posted on by Adam Feik

Adam Feik - INO.com Contributor - Energies


Oil has come a long ways, in really short order, rising from $26.21 on February 11 to over $38 as of March 31 (a 46% increase).

Hedge funds have become “as bullish on crude as they’ve ever been, according to the latest CFTC data,” said CNBC’s Melissa Lee on Wednesday.

Is the bullishness justified? Let’s try to sort all this out.

To start, here’s video of a Lee’s and Timothy Seymour’s CNBC interview of PR Advisors founder Robert Raymond. To me, Raymond’s analysis makes a lot of sense. See what you think. I’ve excerpted several statement from Mr. Raymond, followed by my comments (labeled Feik) to give you my view.

Raymond: “(The bullishness) is actually part of what has us concerned.”

Feik: I agree. John Templeton provided a favorite investing maxim of mine (and of many others) when he said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” With so many people trying to bottom-fish in oil and energy right now, I don’t see the kind of pessimism or skepticism that sparks bull markets. So, like Mr. Raymond, that has me concerned. Continue reading "Oil And Trump Both Need To Pause And Catch Their Breath" →

Investors Should Watch Out For This Breakout Stock

Posted on by Daniel Cross

Daniel Cross - INO.com Contributor - Equities


If you're an advocate of EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis), then you likely assume that markets are rational and bargain pickups are hard to come by. Stocks that take off without notice shouldn't happen since investors, whether institutional or everyday, have access to the same information. However, there are some cases that simply defy the rules.

Stealthy stocks that are relatively unknown can surprise investors. These types of companies might have few or no analysts covering its stock letting it easily slip through investors sights. But once it starts hitting new highs, it makes waves.

Many have immortalized investors like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. The value investor style of stock trading has been a winner for decades, but a look back at recent history tells a different story. It's growth stocks that have outperformed value stocks over the past decade. Advances in technology and a the globalization of the world's financial markets have led to an aggressive bull market that undervalued stocks just haven't been able to keep up with. Continue reading "Investors Should Watch Out For This Breakout Stock" →