The year is approaching a sunset. It is the right time for precious metals to get ready for a Santa Claus visit to take them for a ride to the sky. One of the metals has already been in the game; I am talking about gold.
In October, I enriched the bullish view with the newly spotted “Diamond” reversal pattern. Most of you confirmed that you see this pattern. It is still good, as the invalidation level was not touched. Continue reading "Santa Claus Rally Kicks Off For Gold"
This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 11/7/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!
It’s so destructive what the Fed is doing, and their “crystal meth” jacked right into the market's veins had the expected effect. This injection of demand overwhelmed the available supply and we have “doinked” higher.
I can’t analyze and forecast a market with accuracy where politics and policy trump human behavior models and basic supply and demand.
The intraday markets in the S&P remain solid. I had back-to-back winners today and produced double-digit gains.
Average holding time? Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"
While I hold a special place (in my thoughts and in NFTRH) for the gold stock sector due to its counter-cyclical nature, it’s a big market out there, and a strategic view of the macro helps with successful positioning. Following is a snapshot of some sectors/markets with general thoughts on each. I will provide one chart or graphic for each but not mark them up or get into too much technical or fundamental detail. There’s a weekend report for all of that stuff. For now, a brief review.
Gold/Silver Mining & Royalty
Gold miners have been fundamentally impaired by the inflationary macro as costs (energy, materials, humans) have outpaced product (gold) for well over a year. As with other markets/sectors, sentiment became overdone to the downside in September, and from there (one of our key downside support targets at 230), we projected a bounce, and with some stops and starts, the rally logically began.
I have now seen an Inverted H&S (bullish) show up among gold stock ‘analysts’ (code for ‘obsessives’ if all they manage are gold stocks amid a field of many sectors that are actually working). We projected a pre-FOMC pullback to the SMA 50, which would be the healthiest thing to do during FOMC week, and that is what Huey has done. The H&S potential lives although the trends are down. Continue reading "A Brief Sector Review"
The stock market set another round of record closes on Friday after the October jobs report came in better than expected, boosting optimism about the economic recovery.
Pfizer announced a significant development regarding its easy-to-administer Covid-19 pill, which fueled hope for a smoother reopening, sending shares of airlines and cruise line operators soaring.
The DOW rose 203.72 points or +0.56%, to close at 36,327.95. The S&P 500 gained +0.374% to 4,697.53 for its seventh straight positive day, and the NASDAQ edged up +0.20% to 15,971.59. All three major averages reached their respective record-closing highs.
All three major indexes posted their fifth positive week in a row and finished solidly higher for the month. On a weekly level, the DOW gained +1.42%, the S&P 500 +2.00%, and the NASDAQ rounded out the week up +3.05%. Continue reading "Indexes Set Records On Strong Jobs Report"
In part one of this article, we discussed how the recent decline in Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor share prices could reflect a concern that the risks involved in holding large home inventories while attempting to "flip houses" could present for these Real Estate firms. The recent 50% price drop in the share price levels should send a fairly strong warning to investors that these "flipping" processes contain a moderate degree of underlying risk and extended costs in a super-heated and potentially peaking Real Estate trend.
It has been reported that Zillow increased the purchase of homes for their Ibuyer program, from 86 homes in Q2:2020 to 808 homes in Q3:2020, to 3805 homes in Q2:2021. We’ll learn more about their Q3:2021 home buying efforts when Zillow announced earnings.
It has also been reported that Zillow sold more than $1 billion in bonds to investors to fund this operation that includes using their Zestimate algorithm to buy homes quickly, renovate/flip them, and put them back on the market. The super-heated Real Estate market has driven these firms into speculative trading of houses in an open and often hostile market environment. Taking a bigger leap is Opendoor, which purchased 8,494 homes in Q2:2021. This is a massive inventory of homes that may require many months or years to renovate/sell.
Is this trend a buying opportunity for Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor – or a warning? Continue reading "Is Zillow's Collapse A Warning Sign? - Part 2"
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